Woe are we.
It`s time once again to match wits with the 7,500 or so unpredictable members of the Country Music Association, who are scheduled to bestow their annual awards Monday in ceremonies beginning at 8:30 p.m. on CBS-Ch.2.
As usual, the columnist`s fearless spouse has consented to enter the embarrassing fray, which last year wasn`t as embarrassing as sometimes. Spouse and self each picked over half of the winners, and together picked almost all.
This, however, is a new year, with new minefields to tread. For example, redoubtable record-seller Alabama isn`t among the nominees. And the CMA has eliminated perennial winner Chet Atkins from its instrumentalist of the year category, thus further complicating a predicter`s life.
Nevertheless, pressing doggedly on, here are categories, nominees and thoughts thereon:
Horizon: Presented to the act that has made the most dramatic career progress in the previous year, this one usually goes to a developing star rather than a veteran. That may rule out nominee Dan Seals, long the England Dan of pop`s England Dan & John Ford Coley. Newer acts here are the Forester Sisters, Kathy Mattea, Randy Travis and Dwight Yoakam. The most dramatically successful have been the Foresters, who have been on the national scene two years; Yoakam, a traditional-oriented performer whose appeal to the Los Angeles punk crowd has given him some crossover clout; and Travis, the new darling of traditionalists. Wife: the Foresters, because they`ve had more hits. Self: Travis, because the CMA has leaned toward traditionalism lately.
Music Video: Here, two superstar female acts, the Judds with ”Grandpa
(Tell Me `Bout the Good Old Days)” and Reba McEntire with ”Whoever`s in New England” are opposed by young male stars Gary Morris` ”100% Chance of Rain” and Dwight Yoakam`s ”Honky Tonk Man” as well as living legend George Jones` ”Who`s Gonna Fill Their Shoes.” Wife: ”Whoever`s in New England.”
Self: ”Grandpa.”
Instrumentalist: The CMA tried to rectify a problem in this category and failed. Guitarist Chet Atkins was winning this award every year because he was the most famous nominee. But instead of making the award more meaningful by linking it to the year`s most-nominated music, nominating musicians on the basis of contributions to specific hit singles or albums during the year, they simply eliminated Atkins from the competition. As a result, this year there are just four nominees, but three of them–Jerry Douglas, Doyle Grisham and Mark O`Connor–are new, Johnny Gimble being the only holdover. Wife: Grisham, because she wonders who he is. Self: O`Connor, because his Warner Bros. album last year may have made his name as recognizable to CMA members as that of Gimble`s, a previous winner.
Instrumental Group: Here`s a real hodgepodge: the Grand Ole Opry staff band, the ”Hee Haw” (syndicated TV show) band, the ”Nashville Now” (cable TV) band, the Oak Ridge Boys` band, and Merle Haggard`s band, the Strangers. On what basis this one will be chosen is anybody`s guess. Wife: The Strangers, because they`re classic. Self: Ditto.
Vocal Duo: Marie Osmond and Dan Seals, who had the most-noted hit with
”Meet Me in Montana,” are vying with Crystal Gayle and Gary Morris, Dolly Parton and Kenny Rogers, Nicolette Larson and Steve Wariner, and Waylon Jennings and Willie Nelson. Wife: Osmond & Seals. Self: Ditto.
Vocal Group: The Judds, the year`s most visible act, is opposed by Exile, the Forester Sisters, the Nitty Gritty Dirt Band and the Oak Ridge Boys. The Judds and the Foresters are the freshest and most traditional. Wife: The Judds. Self: Ditto.
Male Vocalist: Among nominees George Jones, Gary Morris, George Strait, Randy Travis and Hank Williams Jr., the most appealing in 1986 are the last three, and Strait was last year`s winner. Will voters give it to him a second year in a row, as often happens? Will they finally decide to reward sometimes- abrasive but longtime muscular seller Hank Jr.? Or will they anoint the great, new youngster Travis? Wife: Strait. Self: The darkhorse, Travis, remembering that Ricky Skaggs won both the Horizon and male vocalist awards the same night a few years ago.
Female Vocalist: Reba McEntire, running for an unprecedented third consecutive term, is up against Rosanne Cash and previous winners Janie Fricke, Emmylou Harris and Anne Murray. Wife: McEntire, because she seems to have been preeminent again this year. Self: Ditto, although Fricke and Cash appear to be challenging.
Song: A songwriter`s award, this pits two Randy Travis singles (actually three, since ”On the Other Hand” was his first and then re-released as his third) against three crossover hits. Travis` ”1982” by James Blackmon and Carl Vipperman, and his ”On the Other Hand” by Paul Overstreet and Don Schlitz, go against Dan Seals` ”Bop” by Jennifer Kimball and Paul Davis, the Judds` ”Grandpa” by Jamie O`Hara, and Ronnie Milsap`s ”Lost in the Fifties Tonight” by Mike Reid, Troy Seals and Fred Parris. Wife: ”Lost in the Fifties,” because she is. Self: ”Grandpa,” because it fits the pop-with-traditional-values direction CMA voters often seem to like.
Album: Here the Judds` gold LP ”Rockin` with the Rhythm” goes up against four other strong sellers: Milsap`s ”Lost in the Fifties Tonight,”
Strait`s ”7,” McEntire`s ”Whoever`s in New England” and Travis` ”Storms of Life.” Wife: ”Storms of Life,” because it seems destined to become a classic of its genre. Self: The also-excellent ”Rockin` with the Rhythm,”
because the Judds have more momentum and have reached a more diverse audience. Single: Dan Seals` ”Bop,” which got a lot of pop airplay, vies with the Judds` ”Grandpa,” Strait`s ”Nobody in his Right Mind Would`ve Left Her,”
Travis` ”On the Other Hand,” and McEntire`s ”Whoever`s in New England.”
Wife: ”Grandpa.” Self: ”Bop,” because CMA voters often reward crossover achievement.
Entertainer: The pinnacle award pits two highly successful and well-liked female acts, McEntire and the Judds, against FarmAid organizer Willie Nelson, 1985 winner Ricky Skaggs and Texas dancehall king Strait. Nelson may have reached emeritus status in voters` minds by now, but Skaggs, who has done much to strengthen country music in Britain and Europe this year, and Strait, who virtually owns Southwestern audiences, are definite contenders. However . . . Wife: the Judds, because they dominated the headlines this year. Self:
McEntire, because she has been laboring in the vineyard longer than the Judds, and without sour grapes.
Okay, so there it is: a collection of predictions to be consigned to the trashcan Oct. 14, if not before. Win or lose, the ordeal of choosing is over for another year.
Say goodnight, Gracie.
