The perpetual battle between Mayor Harold Washington and Ald. Edward Vrdolyak (10th) has solidified the mayor`s support among black voters, while at the same time white voters are less threatened than they were four years ago, according to a campaign strategy memorandum prepared by Washington`s own pollster.
Though the feud with Vrdolyak stalled many of Washington`s programs, the strategy memorandum urged that leadership should be the main theme of the mayor`s re-election campaign because his record is not strong enough to run on.
”Harold Washington cannot allow the coming re-election campaign to be a referendum based exclusively on his performance as mayor,” wrote pollster Paul Maslin. ”Rather, he must make it a choice between the future and the failed leadership of the past.
”So long as the election does not become a strict referendum on Harold Washington, additional votes can be gained from whites and Hispanics, giving Washington the votes needed to avoid severe political difficulty,” said Maslin, a Washington, D.C., pollster who also was an adviser to the mayor in his 1983 campaign.
The poll showed that 32 percent of white voters have a ”favorable”
opinion of Washington, with one-third rating his performance as ”excellent” or ”good.” Among Hispanics, Washington receives a ”favorable” rating of 55 percent, with 53 percent rating his performance as ”excellent” or ”good.” Washington has been urged to make his political opposition the major issue of his re-election drive. ”Washington`s political position clearly improves when he is juxtaposed against any of the leading white politicians of the city,” Maslin wrote.
”The more the 1987 mayoral election becomes a contest between Harold Washington and a specific opponent, rather than a referendum on Harold Washington, the better off the mayor fares.”
A copy of Maslin`s 138-page report to Washington was obtained by The Tribune from Democratic sources. Maslin, a partner in the firm Hickman-Maslin Research, drafted the Oct. 6 memorandum after conducting a benchmark poll for Washington of 881 Chicago voters in mid-September.
Washington and his strategists have used the Maslin survey and report as a planning tool for the 1987 campaign, the sources indicated.
”Central issues such as crime, jobs, city finances and property taxes are viewed quite unfavorably, and there is little that can be done in any campaign to alter these basis evaluations,” Maslin wrote.
”The danger of negative evaluations is heightened by voters` belief that Harold Washington is in control of city government and, therefore, now responsible for addressing these concerns.”
According to well-placed sources, Washington decided to file for renomination in the Democratic primary after Maslin`s poll indicated that the mayor held a 19-point lead over Jane Byrne, his most likely opponent, and projected that more blacks than whites would vote in such a contest.
Maslin`s findings were similar to those of a Tribune poll.
In that poll, even though Chicago voters were evenly divided on whether Washington should be re-elected, they gave the mayor a clear lead over his announced opponents.
Maslin`s poll characterized Washington as a ”likely” participant in the Democratic primary. Maslin reported that one-fifth of white voters indicated that they might not vote in the 1987 mayoral election, which would presumably strengthen Washington`s prospects for re-election.
Though Washington enjoyed a commanding lead over Byrne and other potential 1987 opponents in Maslin`s two-way and three-way match-ups, only 37 percent of those interviewed said that they would definitely support Washington`s re-election; 27 percent said that they would definitely support someone else.
Maslin`s report outlined Washington`s strengths and vulnerabilities in the campaign.
Though Maslin suggested that Washington gets high marks for his efforts to open city government to women and minorities and for his administration`s emphasis on neighborhood programs, the pollster suggested that Washington`s record is vulnerable.
”Most chief executives succeed or fail in their re-election efforts based on voters` evaluations of how their administration has performed on the central issues of the day,” Maslin wrote. ”Harold Washington should not seek to base his re-election message on how the city government has performed on delivering city services.”
Maslin listed five trouble spots for Washington:
— Crime. Eleven percent of Chicago voters thought that crime had been reduced during Washington`s administration, while 58 percent thought that it had gotten worse.
— City finances. Seventeen percent thought that city finances and the budget had improved during Washington`s administration, while 49 percent thought it had gotten worse.
— Jobs. Seventeen percent said that efforts to attract industry and provide new jobs had improved, while 58 percent believed it had gotten worse. — Drug abuse. Nine percent thought that the problem of drug and alcohol abuse had been reduced, while 64 percent thought that it had gotten worse.
— Taxes. Nine percent thought that the property tax burden had been reduced, while 59 percent thought that it had gotten worse.
Maslin listed two major accomplishments of Washington`s administration that should be emphasized, and the mayor is stressing them as themes of his campaign:
— Opening up city government. Thirty-eight percent of those interviewed thought that city government was more open and accessible to the public as a result of Washington`s leadership.
— Neighborhood improvements. Forty-four percent said the city`s efforts to assist the neighborhoods had improved, while 24 percent thought that it had gotten worse.
Washington`s three-year power struggle with Vrdolyak has worked strongly to the mayor`s advantage, Maslin wrote.
”The conflict with Vrdolyak . . . is one factor which has clearly helped Washington maintain these overwhelming levels of support among black voters,” the report said. ”The continuation of a highly charged political atmosphere has kept black voters mobilized behind Harold Washington and his
administration.”
Maslin also reported that a plurality of white voters blamed Vrdolyak more than Washington for the ”Council Wars.”
Washington has not improved his standing among liberals and independents along the city`s northern lakefront, which is expected to be the central battleground of the 1987 campaign, Maslin wrote.
”One of the reasons why Washington has failed to make the sizable gains we might have expected over the last three years centers around strict performance evaluations,” Maslin wrote.
”On the issues of crime, city finances, property taxes and city government,” the lakefront independents ”are far from positive in their evaluations.”
Maslin urged Washington to capitalize on the weaknesses of his political opposition by seeking to link Byrne, his major rival in the Feb. 24 Democratic primary, with Vrdolyak, the chairman of the Cook County Democratic Party.
”Byrne, and whoever else may enter the contest, should be linked to Vrdolyak and all that Vrdolyak stands for on the issue of reform,” Maslin wrote.
Since receiving Maslin`s report, Washington has sought to link Byrne to Vrdolyak.
The report, written before Cook County Assessor Thomas Hynes announced his candidacy for mayor on a third-party ticket in the April general election, suggested that one of Washington`s biggest strengths is that Byrne and other challengers have yet to build a solid political base.
Maslin suggested that white voter turnout may drop below 1983 levels because of a softening of resistance to Washington`s leadership and also because of the failure of Washington`s opposition to unite behind a single challenger.
The pollster said that substantial numbers of white voters believe that Washington is strong, decisive and hard working and that a plurality of white voters believe that Washington has been a better mayor than expected.
”Many whites could well become so disillusioned about Washington`s opponents that they may not even vote at all,” Maslin wrote.
According to Maslin, few Chicago residents are neutral about Washington.
Sixty-eight percent of those interviewed listed some things that they liked about the mayor, while 66 percent could name some things that they didn`t like.
Maslin said that Washington is viewed, even by his critics, as a strong and decisive leader and has gained high marks for making city government more open and responsive and for increasing city aid to the neighborhoods.
