Over the last two years, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev has implemented an ambitious program of economic and political reform and modernization that has achieved notable success, according to a report on Thursday compiled by U.S. intelligence agencies.
But the long-term success of Gorbachev`s efforts could be adversely affected by unrealistically high goals, resistance by the country`s deeply entrenched political bureauracy and public weariness, the report said.
Propelled by strong farm output, the Soviet gross national product grew 4 percent in 1986, the highest rate in a decade. The industrial sector, the focus of Gorbachev`s efforts, also recorded its best growth in a decade.
The report was compiled from testimony that predated another Washington study earlier this month that showed the Soviet Union may have made a practiced attempt to exaggerate its economic growth. Edward A. Hewett, a Soviet economic expert at the Brookings Institution said that even though the CIA study may not have taken the exaggeration into account, the Soviet economy ”would still show improvement.”
The intelligence report said a major task facing Gorbachev was bringing about a turnaround in a decade-long economic slump which kept Soviet GNP at just over 2 percent a year between 1976 and 1985.
The report said that while the U.S. and other Western countries worked for advances in manufacturing technologies the Soviet Union spent heavily on a military build-up.
During the last 10 years, the Soviet Union has delivered about 22,000 tanks, 21,000 infantry fighting vehicles, and 27,000 armored personnel carriers and similar vehicles to Soviet ground forces, the report said.
Strategic forces received more than 3,200 strategic missiles and 20 converted ballistic missile submarines while air power was augmented with more than 7,100 new fighter aircraft and about 4,600 helicopters.
The Soviets thus secured their position as a military superpower whose global interests were increasingly recognized but lagged behind the West in development and quality of life provided for citizens.
The Soviet economy has long lagged far behind that of the U.S. In 1960 the Soviet gross national product stood at about 50 percent of U.S. GNP.
After narrowing the gap during the 1960s and 1970s and peaking in the early 1980s, Soviet GNP as a percent of U.S. GNP fell to about 55 percent in 1985.
The intelligence reports said another reason for the Soviets` poor economic performance was its reliance on an antiquated industrial base.
The Soviet modernization program is a five-year effort that began in 1986. It calls for doubling retirement rates for fixed capital, replacing one- third of the country`s plants and equipment by 1990, and increasing the level of investment in the civilian machine-building and metal-working ministries by 80 percent by 1990.
The report said Gorbachev`s program appeared too ambitious in several areas. ”Output targets for many key commodities would rquire unrealistic gains in productivity, given planned investment targets. Even if output targets can be acheived, high growth rates and improved quality are not readily compatible objectives.
”And none of the proposals so far would greatly change the system of economic incentives that has discouraged management innovation and
technological change,” the report said.
The most serious problems facing the Soviet Union`s modernization effort, according to the report, are those associated with improvement in the quality, reliability, and technological level of Soviet manufactured machinery and equipment over a short period of time.
