No, it doesn`t leap over tall buildings, nor is it faster than a speeding bullet.
But it is Super Something-bigger, broader, more expensive and perhaps more confusing than anything in the tangled history of American presidential politics. And after being pondered and analyzed for two years, it is just about here.
It is Super Tuesday. It comes on March 8, when Democrats in 20 states and Republicans in 17 of them will hold primaries or caucuses to select delegates to their national conventions.
How it will all play out, who-if anyone-will benefit, and what the outcome will be are all matters of debate. But this is a matter of fact: never before have so many convention delegates been chosen in a single day.
Before the day is out, the presidential preferences of 1,307 of the 4,161 Democratic delegates and 712 of the 2,277 Republican delegates will have been selected, or roughly one third of all the delegates for both conventions.
”It`s virtually a national primary,” said Sen. Albert Gore, the Democratic presidential candidate who is so taken with Super Tuesday that he skipped earlier events leading up to it.
Those events, principally the Iowa precinct caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, were highlighted by long periods of intimate, often personal, campaigning-with elaborate organizations bringing previously identified supporters out to vote and relatively small amounts of money spent on television.
But for this event, there is no time for ”retail” politics, the one-on- one encounters and casual getting-to-know you events that were the hallmarks of the Iowa and New Hampshire contests.
This is ”wholesale” politics, a tarmac-to-tarmac marathon from one media market to another in search of getting on the local television news show-that`s ”free media” in the jargon-and a frantic effort to collect enough money to produce television commercials and buy air time-that`s ”paid media”-from Miami to Seattle.
This provides some advantage, but only some, to the candidates who have the most money-Vice President George Bush for the Republicans, Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis and Gore for the Democrats.
Politically, Super Tuesday has become for the Democrats a battle between Gore and Rep. Richard Gephardt to see who survives with enough strength to challenge Dukakis in the northern industrial states which follow.
For Illinois Sen. Paul Simon, it is an almost insurmountable financial barrier standing in the way of what he hopes will be a friendlier Illinois Primary, although he now claims he will be in the race all the way to Atlanta. For the Republicans, it has become a ”Stop Bush” movement, perhaps the last one, which has led to a de facto alliance between Sen. Bob Dole and Pat Robertson to keep the vice president from piling up so many delegates and so much momentum that his nomination seems inevitable.
For the other Republican in the race, Rep. Jack Kemp of New York, Super Tuesday seems to offer few opportunities-unless he first gets momentum going by winning the Minneosta caucuses this Tuesday.
Gore comes as close as any current contender to being the kind of candidate for which Super Tuesday was invented. The creators were state-level Democrats in the South who wanted their party to nominate a candidate who was not quite as liberal, or at least not perceived to be as beholden to liberal interest groups, as the 1984 loser, Walter Mondale.
These officials, mostly state legislative leaders, got together in 1985 and figured out that if all the Southern states held their primaries on the same day, the Democrats would be more likely to nominate a candidate who could appeal to moderate Southerners.
All the Southern state legislatures except South Carolina`s went along, and the border states of Maryland, Kentucky, Oklahoma and Missouri decided to join in. So did Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Washington state and, for the Democrats, Nevada, Hawaii and Idaho.
Because 14 of the Super Tuesday states are in the South or on its borders, the big day is often referred to as the day of a ”Southern regional primary,” a designation which ignores not just the other states but the reality that the South is hardly a cohesive region.
For Super Tuesday purposes, the ”South” ranges from the shores of the Chesapeake Bay to El Paso, a broad expanse in both miles and political cultures. Moderate white Southerners will be an important element in the Super Tuesday voting, as intended. But so will blacks, Hispanics, upper-income suburbanites and various other voters in a broad swath of the country.
These demographics, along with the political dynamics of the area, have led some observers to predict that Super Tuesday would backfire on its inventors. This theory holds that white moderates would either stay home or vote in Republican primaries-in eight of the Southern states voters can choose either party`s ballot-leaving a Democratic electorate dominated by blacks, Hispanics and white liberals.
Should this happen, one of the big winners of the day could be Jesse Jackson, who is expected to win the vast majority of black votes as well as some Hispanics.
”That could happen,” said Alvin Fromm, the director of the Democratic Leadership Council, which encouraged Southern leaders to arrange Super Tuesday. ”But the fact is, no one knows. Our surveys have shown that if Democrats talk about economic growth and national strength, which our candidates are discussing, they may attract Southern swing voters back to the Democratic primary.”
Furthermore, while no one doubts that Jackson will get most black votes, he will not get them without a contest.
”Wherever I go I talk to black legislators, black community leaders,”
Gephardt said. ”I know I`m not going to win a black majority, but I`m looking for all the support I can get.”
So are Gore and Dukakis, and all three white Democrats essentially have the same pitch to black voters: I`m your friend, too, and I can win. Whether their combined efforts will make much of an inroad into Jackson`s strength is one of the several imponderables surrounding the day.
As Super Tuesday approaches, there does seem to be a consensus forming that the important goal is not to win states but to win delegates. Even Gerald Austin, the campaign chief for Jackson, who is favored to win some states, said: ”It doesn`t matter how many states you win. What matters is delegates, and our goal is to be first, second or third in delegates on the morning after Super Tuesday.”
Though some delegates in both parties are awarded to statewide winners, most of them are apportioned by congressional district. In Republican races, each district elects three convention delegates, and in most of the Super Tuesday states the candidate who wins the district gets all three delegates.
The Democratic system is more complicated. Congressional districts that are more Democratic elect more delegates, and the delegates are split according to a proportion of the vote. In a district which elects four delegates, for instance, a candidate who wins half the vote would get two of the four, with the other two split between other candidates who get at least 15 percent of the district`s vote.
What all this means is that the candidates are going to be picking their spots, campaigning where they think they can win delegates.
For Dole that means Florida, North Carolina, Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee, all but surrendering Texas and its 111 delegates to Bush.
For Robertson it means the traditionally-Democratic areas where Republican turnout should be light, and where his highly motivated followers could get him some delegates. In addition, Robertson will try to bring momentum to the day by first beating Bush in South Carolina, where Republicans hold their primary on Saturday, March 5.
For Dukakis it means southern Florida with its northeastern transplants, South Texas with its Hispanics-the governor speaks Spanish-and the high-tech suburbs and academic communities scattered around the South. Dukakis is also expected to sweep his own state of Massachusetts and neighboring Rhode Island. Jackson will concentrate on the 165 or so congressional districts in which blacks make up at least 15 percent of the likely Democratic electorate, Austin said. Simon`s slim hopes rest among liberal Democrats.
This leaves Gore and Gephardt with both the opportunity and the responsibility of seeking delegates just about everywhere. Each man should do well in his own state, but neither can rely on his own state for enough delegates.
Gore and Gephardt can be expected to clash in Texas, Florida, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Alabama. Whoever does better will get a big boost as he heads to Illinois to face Jackson, Dukakis and Simon the next week.
If one does poorly, he might just as well stay in the sunshine to work on his tan.
George Bush
Active organization everywhere and has the edge in polls in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia, will most likely sweep his voting-address state of Texas and Oklahoma because of his stand on oil.
Bob Dole
Weaker organization than Bush in the South. Polls show him a close second in Arkansas, virtually tied in Massachusetts, strong in North Carolina, and tied with the vice president in Tennessee.
Jack Kemp
Hoping his conservative message will draw well, but the effort is diluted by Robertson. Pushing Social Security issues in Florida, but short of money.
Pat Robertson
Claims strong evangelical support across the South, ”my backyard,” with special emphasis on his home state, Virginia. No poll numbers to back up the claim, but was surprise in Iowa because of his evangelical army and could get boost from South Carolina on March 5.
KEY DEMOCRATS
Michael Dukakis
Will take Massachusetts handily and Rhode Island too. Looking for support from northeastern immigrants in Florida, running in tight race in Texas. Campaign support could expand because of tremendous warchest for media assault.
Richard Gephardt
A contender all around because of Iowa and New Hampshire showing, will take home state of Missouri, in good position in Louisiana on oil issues, in a horse race in Texas with Gore and Dukakis, might do well with conservative Democrats in Washington state.
Al Gore
Will take his home state of Tennessee and has mounted active campaigns across the South as fellow Democrats focused on Iowa and New Hampshire. Popular in Alabama and Kentucky, strong in Georgia and battling with Dukakis, Gephardt in Texas.
Jesse Jackson
Has strong base among black voters across the South. Leads in polls in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, looking for Hispanic and black support in Texas, wrestling with Gore in North Carolina. May run second in Tennessee, had heavy support in 1984 Virginia caucuses.
Paul Simon
Goals to stay alive until the Illinois primary. May pick up some limited liberal support in some of the urban areas of the South. Faced money problems before the Super Tuesday contest even began and will run with that disadvantage.
Chicago Tribune Graphic by David Jahntz.
