Time has always been one of the few things in abundance for all in Mexico, with more than enough always available for leisurely spending. Even the reign of its ruling party, in the past virtually unthreatened by rivals, has been measured in generations, not years.
Now all that is changing. Carlos Salinas de Gortari, Mexico`s president-elect, is faced with the unnatural situation of having too much to do in what may be too little time-not just for the future of his party and country, but for that of U.S.-Mexican relations.
Controversy still swirls around Salinas` election because of a week-long delay in announcing the results and a reported voter turnout that was much lower than earlier projected. Instead of the traditional landslide, Salinas won with 50.36 percent. His closest opponent, Cuauhtemoc Cardenas of the leftist National Democratic Front, who had 31.12 percent, continues to question the returns and claim victory.
If Salinas can`t convince voters he won fairly and restore their confidence in the long-dominant PRI before the next round of congressional elections in 1991, the party could lose its majority. It already has suffered unprecedented losses. The PRI clings to a bare 260-240 edge in the Chamber of Deputies and even lost 4 of 64 Senate seats, its first such defeats.
The PRI victory, relatively narrow as it was in this time of severe economic problems, was important to U.S.-Mexican relations. In the unlikely event of an upset, the leftists almost certainly would have carried out their pledge to declare a moratorium on payment of the $104 billion national debt, most of which is held by United States banks. That could have threatened the survival of several American institutions.
The PRI has vowed to continue its austerity program, which helps pay the debt, despite the demonstrated anger of large numbers of voters over what they consider unreasonable economic suffering imposed upon them to service foreign loans.
Salinas will have to acknowledge the concern of Mexico`s citizens and at the same time work with American bankers for a solution to ease the country`s financial strains while continuing to reduce its debt balance. And to help build trust all around, he must make a real effort to eliminate the political and governmental corruption that for too long has justified at least some of the cynicism of both Mexico`s citizens and its foreign creditors.
Both the United States and Mexico also will have to realize there are no fast fixes. The issues that cause them problems-drugs, immigration, pollution, trade, the political turmoil in Central America and the interrelationship of their economies-are complex.
Many of the difficulties in U.S.-Mexican relations stem from cultural differences. Mexico has a long memory of wrongs, going back to the early 1800s, whereas U.S. policy tends to be born again with each administration, often with little evidence that the new one has learned much from earlier mistakes. And the U.S. tends to forget how well Mexico remembers the ”big stick” years of intervention and how edgy it gets about talk-fanciful though it may be-of invasions into Nicaragua or Panama.
Salinas must find a way to appease his disgruntled constitutents and at the same time improve relations with the United States. The tightrope is there for the walking. But he must cross it quickly. And he`s going to need a friendly, steadying hand from his new U.S. counterpart. George Bush or Michael Dukakis, whoever grabs the brass ring, must be ready to offer that hand. A politically unstable Mexico, writhing in economic pain and reneging on its international commitments, will not be the kind of neighbor that will make their lives anything but harder.
