With the Bush-Quayle and Dukakis-Bentsen tickets set for the presidential campaign, economics takes on a political hue.
The 78 days remaining until Election Day will bring on frequent displays of what might be called the Finely Tuned Spin. Since bad reports help Dukakis and good ones help Bush, political operatives-sometimes called Spin Doctors- will be busy trying to make the bad look good and the good look bad.
Each negative report usually has a positive side, so this shouldn`t be too difficult, though rising interest rates and inflationary expectations have set the Bush forces back.
TEPID WATER
The nation will see the Spin Doctors at work this week when several economic reports are released, led by the consumer price index for July, due Tuesday.
If most expectations are realized, it would normally be considered a ho-hum report.
The general feeling: The index will post a 0.5 percent increase. That`s what David Hale of Kemper Financial Services and Robert Dederick of Northern Trust Co. think it will show. ”Totally dull,” said Hale.
OVERFLOW?
But just suppose that it`s 0.6 percent, which is what Cynthia Latta of Data Resources Inc. thinks it will be? A tenth of a percentage point would surely bring out the Spin Doctors in full force.
Accelerating inflation caused by the budget deficit, or a modest blip in rising prices caused by the drought and the economy`s second-quarter robustness? In this game, you can choose your spin. The truth suffers when Spin Doctors go a-spinning.
As for the economy`s strength, the Commerce Department will give an updated reading on Thursday, when it revises the second-quarter gross national product figures. The preliminary figure had it rising 3.1 percent, considered too fast to prevent inflation from re-emerging.
ANOTHER LOAD
Economists are divided on whether GNP will be revised up or down, but none expects really significant changes. Other reports due out this week are durable goods and real earnings, on Tuesday; quarterly trade figures, on Wednesday; and personal income, on Friday.
By most estimates, personal income last month posted a sizable gain, in the neighborhood of 0.7 percent. Economists estimated this from an earlier report on employment and wages. This seems to be good news for Bush, but who knows what the Spin Doctors will say?
And what of the stock market? It`s still the same old low-volume, erratic place. Last week it was down 21.52 points. This week: Opinion`s divided. The Wall Street Spin Doctors are specialists.
NEW MODELS
Ford Motor Co. will unveil its new Thunderbird and Cougar when it introduces its 1989 models at a press shindig in Boston.
Interest is high because these are the first really new T-Birds and Cougars since 1983.
In that time, the automaker has spun a fine industry story, making a big comeback with innovative styles on its Tauruses and Sables to outearn General Motors Corp.
