The outlook for this year`s drought-damaged corn crop improved about 2 percent in September, while the estimate for soybeans increased slightly, according to private crop analyst Conrad Leslie.
Much of the improvement for the corn crop came in Iowa and Minnesota, while Illinois` projections remained static at 665 million bushels, an estimate that puts this year`s crop at about half the 1987 harvest of 1.2 billion bushels.
For soybeans, Leslie said that above-normal rainfall last month moderately improved the outlook for Central and Southeastern states, but
”Indiana and Ohio yields seem disappointing.”
Analysts said Leslie`s soybean estimate was lower than traders had expected and the corn production estimate was higher than expected. Thus, the report triggered some buying of soybean futures and some selling of corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade.
Soybean futures prices closed higher and corn futures closed mixed Monday, reflecting differing opinions about the size of the nation`s corn and soybean crops. Traders generally expect the government to increase its production estimates from last month`s predictions.
Based on conditions as of Oct. 1, Leslie projected the U.S. corn harvest at 4.546 billion bushels, up from 4.462 billion estimated as of Sept. 1 by the Department of Agriculture. Last year, farmers harvested 7.064 billion bushels of corn, the country`s most important feed grain.
Leslie said the soybean crop should total 1.482 billion bushels, an estimate that is up from the 1.472 billion projection by the department last month. Production in 1987 was 1.9 billion bushels.
Traders said higher crop numbers are expected because with the harvest about half finished, farmers are reporting better yields than most experts had projected.
The national average yield for corn should be 80 bushels an acre, compared with the most recent three-year average of 118.9, and 81.1 in the last drought year of 1983, Leslie said. For soybeans, he estimated the average yield at 26 bushels, versus a three-year average of 33.7 and 26.2 in 1983.
Leslie`s estimates are based on 2,500 reports from grain elevator managers, processors, grain dealers and milling correspondents.
The department will release its Oct. 1 forecast for corn and soybeans Wednesday after the market closes.
In Leslie`s report, the biggest gain for corn came in Iowa, the nation`s leading producer. Leslie estimated the harvest will total 863 million bushels, a 6 percent gain from the department`s Sept. 1 projection of 811 million. A year ago, Iowa produced 1.306 billion bushels.
A substantial increase also was estimated for Minnesota, hard hit by the drought. Leslie thinks the corn crop in that state will total 301 million bushels, up from the Sept. 1 estimate of 279 million. In 1987, Minnesota farmers harvested 635 million bushels.
Leslie said he was ”surprised that there was no mention of aflatoxin in the many reports received for this survey.” Aflatoxin, a poison produced by the fungus aspergillus flavus, which occurs naturally in the soil, has been detected in newly harvested corn in nine states. The outbreak resulted from drought conditions.
At the close on the Board of Trade, wheat was 2 to 7 1/4 cents lower with the contract for delivery in December at $4.27 1/2 a bushel; corn was 2 cents lower to 2 1/4 cents higher with December at $2.92 1/2; oats were 2 1/2 to 4 1/2 cents higher with December at $2.47; and soybeans were 2 to 6 cents higher with November at $7.93.
