Bette Midler and Billy Joel, a pair of longtime Grammy favorites, are the front-runners in the 1989 race for record of the year.
Midler, who won her first Grammy in 1974, is a shoo-in to make the finals with ”Wind Beneath My Wings,” a sentimental ballad from her movie
”Beaches.” Joel, who has collected five Grammys since 1979, also is almost certain to be nominated with ”We Didn`t Start the Fire,” a summary of the last four decades of pop culture.
The nominations for the 32nd annual Grammy Awards won`t be announced until Thursday, but they`re usually not too hard to predict. You just have to know how the 5,800 voting members of the Los Angeles-based National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences operate.
The members-mostly artists, producers and songwriters-tend to favor big hits that fall right in the mainstream of contemporary popular music. Among recent big winners: classy pop veterans Paul Simon and Steve Winwood and automatic hitmakers George Michael and Phil Collins.
But the Grammys have gotten less predictable-and somewhat hipper-in recent years, as more young, rock-conscious members have joined the academy. U2`s critically lauded ”The Joshua Tree” was named album of the year in 1987, and last year, acclaimed folk singer/songwriter Tracy Chapman won as best new artist.
But the voters continue to have a soft spot for well-crafted but insubstantial mainstream pop. It was this tendency that enabled Bobby McFerrin`s engaging but disposable ”Don`t Worry . . . Be Happy” to win last year for record and song of the year.
This year`s five most likely nominees for record of the year reflect the academy`s changing demographics. Midler`s traditional movie theme and Richard Marx`s sensitive ballad ”Right Here Waiting” appeal to the academy`s old guard, the members who have long supported Barbra Streisand and Kenny Loggins. Joel`s spirited history lesson and Mike & the Mechanics` poignant remembrance ”The Living Years” target mainstream voters, who have voted recent awards to Winwood and Sting. And the Fine Young Cannibals` silky pop/dance smash
”She Drives Me Crazy” appeals to younger members, who have enabled Prince and U2 to collect their first Grammys.
All five of these singles reached No. 1 on the weekly pop chart, giving them an edge over such highly regarded but less familiar records as Elvis Costello`s ”Veronica” and Bonnie Raitt`s ”Nick of Time.” But anything can happen, as Simon proved two years ago when ”Graceland” (which peaked at No. 88 on the pop singles chart) was declared record of the year.
Two of the year`s biggest dance hits, Janet Jackson`s ”Miss You Much”
and Paula Abdul`s ”Straight Up,” may well split the vote of the dance/pop constituency and just miss making the finals. Other likely runners-up among the 264 singles eligible for record of the year: Linda Ronstadt and Aaron Neville`s ”Don`t Know Much,” Neneh Cherry`s ”Buffalo Stance” and Don Henley`s ”The End of the Innocence.”
The five most likely nominees for album of the year: The widely admired
”Traveling Wilburys” collection, the Fine Young Cannibals` hit-studded
”The Raw and the Cooked,” Marx`s successful sophomore album, ”Repeat Offender,” Henley`s third solo album, ”The End of the Innocence” and the Rolling Stones` ”Steel Wheels,” which is tied to the year`s most successful and visible concert tour.
All five albums went Top 10 and sold more than a million copies each. But popularity alone doesn`t assure a nomination. Milli Vanilli`s flyweight dance/ pop collection, ”Girl, You Know It`s True,” has sold more than 5 million copies and yielded three No. 1 singles, but stands virtually no chance of being nominated.
The Stones were nominated for album of the year once before, with ”Some Girls” in 1978. (It was, amazingly, the group`s first Grammy nomination.) The band, which has never won a Grammy in regular competition, is likely to finally win this year for best rock group performance.
The Wilburys album, which features Bob Dylan, George Harrison, Tom Petty, Roy Orbison and Jeff Lynne, is at a competitive disadvantage because it was released at the beginning of the eligibility year-Oct. 1, 1988, to Sept. 30, 1989-and already has dropped off the national charts. But the album is likely to find support among a wide cross-section of the academy`s membership-pop, rock, adult contemporary and even country fans. A similar all-star
collaboration, ”Trio,” by Emmylou Harris, Linda Ronstadt and Dolly Parton, was nominated in this category two years ago.
In addition, two of the Wilburys are front-runners to win Grammys in their own right. Petty is likely to win his first Grammy in the male rock vocal category for his smash album, ”Full Moon Fever”; Orbison is a leading contender in the male pop division for his posthumous album, ”Mystery Girl.” The likely runners-up among the 290 releases eligible for album of the year: Jackson`s ”Rhythm Nation 1814,” Anita Baker`s ”Giving You the Best That I Got,” Tom Petty`s ”Full Moon Fever,” U2`s ”Rattle and Hum,”
Prince`s ”Batman” sound track, the ”Beaches” sound track, Orbison`s
”Mystery Girl” and Paul McCartney`s ”Flowers in the Dirt.”
Abdul`s ”Forever Your Girl” was released before the eligibility year began; Joel`s ”Storm Front” was issued after its conclusion. Joel`s album will be eligible next year, though its nomination then is by no means certain. U2`s ”Rattle and Hum” and Baker`s ”Giving You the Best That I Got” missed the cut-off last year and are by now so old they`ll probably be overlooked.
Neneh Cherry and Soul II Soul, the year`s most critically lauded newcomers, are the front-runners in the contest for best new artist. Both acts are signed to Los Angeles-based Virgin Records. The other likely nominees:
dance duo Milli Vanilli, rapper Tone Loc and country star Clint Black. Other possible candidates: Martika, Michael Damian and the Cowboy Junkies.
For the first time, the Grammy organization is allowing new singles from albums released in a prior eligibility year to compete in the performance categories. Thus Metallica, whose loss to Jethro Tull last year in the metal/ hard rock category caused the Grammys endless embarrassment, will have a second chance to win the metal award with the single ”One.”
And Bobby Brown and Guns N` Roses-whose smash albums ”Don`t Be Cruel”
and ”Appetite for Destruction” weren`t even nominated last year, will likely make the finals with singles from those albums. Brown, in fact, is the front runner in the male R&B category. Guns N` Roses will likely win the hard rock award with its 1989 release, ”G N`R Lies.”
Here are the expected nominees in key performance categories, listed in order of predicted finish. Nominations can be for singles, albums or individual tracks.
Best female pop vocal performance: Midler`s ”Wind Beneath My Wings,”
Ronstadt`s ”Cry Like a Rainstorm, Howl Like the Wind,” Cherry`s ”Buffalo Stance,” Gloria Estefan`s ”Don`t Wanna Lose You,” Abdul`s ”Straight Up.” Pop male: Orbison`s ”Mystery Girl,” Marx`s ”Right Here Waiting,”
Joel`s ”We Didn`t Start the Fire,” Rod Stewart`s ”My Heart Can`t Tell You No,” Michael Bolton`s ”How Am I Supposed to Live Without You.”
Pop duo/group: Ronstadt/Neville`s ”Don`t Know Much,” Mike & the Mechanics` ”The Living Years,” Fine Young Cannibals` ”The Raw and the Cooked,” Cher & Peter Cetera`s ”After All,” Simply Red`s ”If You Don`t Know Me By Now.”
Rock female: Raitt`s ”Nick of Time,” Tina Turner`s ”Foreign Affair,”
Melissa Etheridge`s ”Brave and Crazy,” Lita Ford`s ”Falling In and Out of Love,” Cyndi Lauper`s ”I Drove All Night.”
Rock male: Petty`s ”Full Moon Fever,” Henley`s ”The End of the Innocence,” Joe Cocker`s ”When the Night Comes,” Stewart`s ”Crazy About Her,” Marx`s ”Nothin` You Can Do About It.”
Rock duo/group: Rolling Stones` ”Steel Wheels,” ”Traveling Wilburys,” U2`s ”Rattle and Hum,” Guns N` Roses` ”Patience,” The Cure`s ”Love Song.”
Hard rock: Guns N` Roses` ”G N`R Lies,” Aerosmith`s ”Pump,” Lita Ford and Ozzy Osbourne`s ”Close My Eyes Forever,” Motley Crue`s ”Dr. Feelgood,” Living Colour`s ”Cult of Personality.”
Metal: Metallica`s ”One,” Dokken`s ”Beast from the East,”
Queensryche`s ”Operation: Mindcrime,” Metal Church`s ”Blessing in Disguise,” Testament`s ”Practice What You Preach.”
R&B female: Jackson`s ”Miss You Much,” Baker`s ”Giving You the Best That I Got,” Karyn White`s ”Superwoman,” Natalie Cole`s ”Good to Be Back,” Jody Watley`s ”Real Love.”
R&B male: Brown`s ”Every Little Step,” Prince`s ”Batdance,” Luther Vandross` ”She Won`t Talk To Me,” Babyface`s ”It`s No Crime,” Jermaine Jackson`s ”Don`t Take It Personal.”
R&B duo/group: Soul II Soul`s ”Back to Life,” Teddy Riley featuring Guy`s ”My Fantasy,” Aretha Franklin and James Brown`s ”Gimme Your Love,”
Jody Watley with Eric B. & Rakim`s ”Friends,” Surface`s ”Closer Than Friends.”
