In theory, they are the cream of a crop of 48,751 thoroughbreds born in 1987.
In practice, they are the fittest survivors in the jungle known as American racing.
They are the 17 members of the sport`s 3-year-old class scheduled to be entered Thursday in Saturday`s 116th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.
A handful will be getting in through the back door with records suggesting they would be hard-pressed to win the Illinois Derby at Sportsman`s Park, also scheduled to be run Saturday afternoon.
But for most owners, having a horse that even hints Kentucky Derby potential is reason enough to let their emotions be their guide. Another may never come along.
Many horses held in much higher esteem last summer and fall and in the winter races this year are conspicious by their absence.
The casualties include Rhythm, winner of the $1 million Breeders` Cup Juvenile and the national champion 2-year-old; Grand Canyon, who ran the fastest mile ever recorded by a 2-year-old when he won the $1 million Hollywood Futurity; and Red Ransom, hailed by trainer Mack Miller as the best 2-year-old prospect of his Hall of Fame career. Throw in Champagneforashley, Secret Hello, Slavic, Adjudicating, Smelly and Roanoke and you would have a fine entry field.
This is the typical situation. During the 1980s, not a single national champion 2-year-old went on to win the Kentucky Derby. Since the inception of the Breeders` Cup series in 1984, none of the winners of the Juvenile has come back to capture the Derby.
”Things change so quickly for 2- and 3-year-old horses,” says Frank Alexander, trainer of Killer Diller, a long shot who earned his trip to the Derby by coming from far back to win the Garden State Stakes. ”Some good 2-year-olds mature; some don`t. And a lot of horses get hurt.
”It`s not like we planned this for our horse. Everything just fell into place. You have to take a chance once in a while. I`ve run 20-to-1 shots before, and they`ve won. There`s a ton of speed in this race. It could set things up for a come-from-behind horse. My horse comes from behind, and this might be the only shot I`ll ever have.”
Almost all of the horses will be carrying 126 pounds for the first time. The 1 1/4-mile Derby distance is their longest race to date. The field is far bigger than the norm, and many of the top contenders will be introduced when the starting gate springs open.
”You have to have a horse that`s equipped both physically and mentally,” says Carl Nafzger, trainer of Florida Derby winner Unbridled. ”At the same time, the horse has to be fit and fresh. But fitness goes only so far. The horse has to have enough class to run with the other horses who are here. They all come here thinking they`re good.
”If you think you`re good, you`ll know for sure if you really are when you come out of here. For some, it will be like what a college football player feels when his team goes into that big game with all kinds of confidence and winds up getting clobbered.
”It guts some horses. The Derby has ended the careers of a lot of good horses. They`ll be like the football player who asks himself: `Hey, do I really want to do this anymore?` Then, there`s the other guy who will slough it off and say: `Wait till next time-I`ll kill `em.` That`s the chance you take.”
According to Hall of Fame trainer Laz Barrera, who is trying to win his third Kentucky Derby and extend Mister Frisky`s undefeated streak to a modern- record 17 races, ”in this race every horse will get excited. The horse sees those 130,000 people and all those other horses, and he just knows.”
