The 1980s were billed as ”the decade of the Hispanic,” a time when Hispanic leaders predicted explosive population growth would propel Latinos from obscurity into national political and economic prominence. But then reality-and Reagan administration cutbacks in social programs-set in. Instead of power and glory, the decade fizzled into disappointment for Hispanics as millions sank deeper into poverty, illiteracy and powerlessness.
”We had very high hopes,” said Harry Pachon, executive director of the National Association of Latino Elected Officials. ”But we let this optimism get out of hand.”
Now come the 1990s, and Hispanic leaders, while reluctant to proclaim it their decade yet, are celebrating landmark victories in a California federal court and in the Texas legislature earlier this month. Less than a year before the crucial remapping of congressional and legislative districts begins, those triumphs could awaken the slumbering Hispanic political juggernaut and mark the beginning of a new era of power and prestige for the nation`s 20 million Hispanics.
Or maybe not.
Even after a decade of sizable gains, Hispanics lag behind other minorities in almost every measure. Handicapped by poverty, language and education, they remain a people in search of a common agenda and a national leader.
The single biggest obstacle may be that one in three Hispanic adults is not yet an American citizen and cannot vote. Of those who are eligible, almost half-3.5 million-have not registered.
While Hispanic voter registration has increased dramatically, turnout continues to lag far behind every other group. While the number of Hispanic elected officials tripled in a decade, they still account for only about 1 percent nationwide, even though Hispanics make up about 8 percent of the population. There are only 10 Hispanics in the Congress-none in the Senate.
Another hurdle is a simple matter of labeling. There is a perception that Hispanics everywhere-in the citrus fields of the Lower Rio Grande Valley and Miami`s cosmopolitan Little Havana, in Chicago`s Pilsen neighborhood and the barrios of Los Angeles-represent a monolithic voting bloc. But that has never been true. Hispanics are culturally diverse, and while they share some concerns, they clash on many others.
As a result, Hispanic leaders often have found themselves on the defensive, their political agenda dominated by damage-control missions.
In the conservative political climate of the past decade, for example, English-first laws, which declare English the official language of the United States, have passed in 18 states despite vehement Hispanic objections.
And a recent report from the congressional General Accounting Office confirms what Hispanics have claimed for years: The landmark 1986 amnesty law, which penalizes employers for hiring illegal aliens, has produced a pervasive ”pattern of discrimination” against job applicants with a ”foreign appearance or accent,” even if they are citizens or legal resident aliens.
Now, as Hispanics prepare to celebrate in 1992 the 500th anniversary of Columbus` arrival in the New World, an event of particular emotional significance for Spanish-speaking peoples, leaders are hoping new grass-roots strategies will rally the diverse Hispanic populace across the country.
”We`re at a crossroads,” said Jose Garza, political access director for the Mexican-American Legal Defense and Educational Fund. ”Now we`ll find out whether we`re going to become a serious voting bloc or whether it`s going to be politics as usual.”
So far in 1990, they`re 2-0.
In the California redistricting case, a federal district judge declared that the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors had unconstitutionally gerrymandered their districts to exclude Hispanics from representation.
Hispanic groups hailed the decision, comparing it to the landmark federal court decisions that desegregated the South in the 1950s and `60s. The decision could influence the upcoming redistricting not only in the West and Southwest, but in Chicago, New York, San Francisco, Miami, Phoenix and other cities with sizable Hispanic populations, leaders say.
(Ironically, the day after the ruling, Sarah Flores, a former aide to Los Angeles Supervisor Pete Schabarum, led a field of 10 candidates and won a spot in the November runoff for a board seat. If she wins, she would be the first Hispanic to serve on the board.)
In Texas, meanwhile, the state legislature-after three special sessions-finally settled on a school financing reform plan that would raise $528 million next year, mainly for property-poor, predominantly Hispanic school districts.
The plan is the result of a four-year legal battle led by several poor, mostly Hispanic, school districts. Last year, the Texas Supreme Court declared the state`s system for financing public education unconstitutional because it favored property-rich Anglo districts.
Those victories may be just the beginning. With local and federal lawsuits and huge voter registration drives, Hispanics now are jockeying for more power in state legislatures, city councils, school boards, even statewide judicial posts in Texas, California, Illinois, New York, Florida, New Mexico, and Arizona.
Most of the lawsuits share a single goal-to abolish at-large elections and create single-member districts, which enhances the chances for minority candidates to gain office.
”We are going to measure our progress in how many school board members and city council members we elected and how many lawsuits we`ve won-not whether we`re integrating ourselves into the political life of the nation,”
said Andy Hernandez, president of the Southwest Voter Registration Education Project.
”We`re not winning all our battles, but hell, 20 years ago we weren`t even in the fight. We`re part of it now. We`re making things happen.”
Hispanics also will test their strength at the ballot box this year. In Texas, Rep. Dan Morales, a Democrat, is favored in the race for state attorney general.
If he wins, he will become what pollsters call ”a breakthrough candidate,” the highest-ranking Hispanic ever elected to a state office.
”We`ve got the numbers, and we`ve got political momentum all over the country,” said Raul Yzaguirre, president of the National Council of La Raza, a Hispanic rights group based in Washington.
Indeed, the numbers are impressive. The Hispanic population is rising faster than any other group, up 38.9 percent since 1980, according to census figures. From 1984 to 1988, Hispanic voter registration outstripped the rest of the country, increasing 10 times faster than the national average and prompting some political analysts to dub Hispanics a ”voting time bomb.”
Voter turnout is also up. In Texas alone, Hispanics more than doubled their votes cast from 1976 to 1988.
But the time bomb may go on ticking for a while, partly because the Latino vote generally is split. Mexican-Americans, who represent two-thirds of America`s Hispanics, tend to be more liberal and to vote Democratic; Cubans mostly remain staunch conservatives and vote Republican; and Central and South Americans span the political spectrum.
”Cubans usually vote against Puerto Ricans and Mexican-Americans,” said University of Houston political science professor Richard Murray. ”There`s a lot of hostility in some places.”
And even with voting gains, other numbers suggest that it may take far longer than a decade for Hispanics to turn population into economic power.
In the last decade, the gap between Hispanic and non-Hispanic income has widened, pushing millions deeper into poverty, according to a National Council of La Raza analysis of census data. In 1988, one in four Latino families was living below the poverty line, the highest figure since 1975. There were also 35 percent more Hispanic children living in poverty in 1988 than in 1979.
More than half of all Hispanic children drop out of high school, a rate far higher than any other group.
In 1988, only half of Hispanics 25 and older were high school graduates, versus 78 percent of whites and 64 percent of blacks, a ratio that has not changed in a decade.
Beyond the statistics, some experts say one of the most formidable barriers to Hispanic participation in the political system is cultural. Sociologists say working-class Hispanics tend to be fatalistic. They may be reluctant to register because of language problems. And many have immigrated from countries where political activity was stifled, if not punished.
A recent study by the Southwest Voter Research Institute showed that in most measures of political activity, Hispanics were less engaged than their non-Hispanic counterparts.
The study revealed that Hispanics remain less likely to attend rallies or public meetings, work for a candidate, contribute money, sign petitions, or serve in political clubs.
Some Hispanic leaders argue that the low turnout and participation is not cultural but has developed after decades of being effectively shut out of the electoral process by at-large election systems.
In those types of elections, candidates are chosen by voters from across a city or county, which dilutes the political power of minorities. But in Texas and elsewhere, lawsuits by Hispanic and other minority groups have forced many local jurisdictions-including state legislative districts-to convert to single-member districts.
When at-large districts in dozens of Texas cities were changed to single- member districts in the early 1980s, a Southwest Voter Research Institute survey found a sharp increase in Hispanic candidates elected to city councils and school boards.
Even while Hispanics are gaining at the local level, many leaders lament the failure of a national Latino figure to emerge in the past decade.
The most likely candidate for that role, former San Antonio Mayor Henry Cisneros, dropped out of politics in 1988 after four terms. Cisneros, who was mentioned as a possible vice presidential running mate for Walter Mondale in 1984, had become entangled in a romantic triangle that smudged his pristine reputation and clouded his political future.
He is now running his own asset management firm and maintaining a high profile with his own television and radio shows and a hectic schedule of speeches around the country.
Cisneros is only 42, and most political analysts say his political career is not over. In this spring`s Texas Democratic gubernatorial primary, the Wichita Falls Times Record News endorsed Cisneros as a write-in candidate, declaring that Texas had suffered ”enough government-by-buffoons.”
At the moment, Cisneros dismisses talk of a candidacy. But he still hopes to help galvanize Hispanics in the coming decade.
”We don`t want to ever look at a decade again,” he told a reporter recently, ”and say, `Where did it go?` ”
