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Break it down and home burglary can be little more than a series of foreboding numbers, a line of black-and-white crime statistics that sit like a dark signpost in the path of home ownership.

Warning: You`ll eventually be a victim.

Well, this much is true. Every year, about 1 in 14 homes suffers a break- in that results in at least $1,100 in losses. If you own a home, chances are you`ll probably be burglarized twice in 25 years-and of those burglaries, fewer than 14 percent are ever solved.

But the percentages tell only one side of the story. Like a gambler who defies the house odds by knowing the game and a sly trick or two, you can beat burglars and the numbers by making your home a less attractive target. And, more important, you can do it without racking up more big numbers paying for it all.

It`s a matter of knowing what scares the bad guys.

”Burglars aren`t usually violent; they`re criminals who prey on opportunity, looking for the easiest opportunity or the one with the least risks,” says Joe Mele, an instructor at the National Crime Prevention Institute in Louisville. ”Deterring them is a matter of making your house unattractive from the burglar`s point of view.”

To find out what exactly did and didn`t scare burglars, Ohio State University tapped the expertise of 600 professional crooks who had a little extra time on their hands-usually about two to five years. The results of the university`s 1989 study of jailed burglars and car thieves found that while most feared the exotic top-line security systems, they also had a healthy respect for less-expensive defensive measures.

Pet peeves

In fact, when asked to choose only one method to protect their own homes, criminals disregarded James Bond gadgetry in favor of man`s best friend. Loud dogs, not electronics, topped the list of deterrents, proving conclusively that a dog`s bark can be worse than its bite.

”Dogs have been guarding people since time began,” says Jackie Brandt, a breeder and trainer of security dogs in the Lockport area for more than 30 years. ”The caveman had dogs, so why shouldn`t people in the suburbs and city?”

Brandt says that a ”good barking dog” of almost any breed is enough to scare away most intruders. But her favorite, the German shepherd, would probably top the list of watchdogs.

”A Doberman will scare a burglar, but if you have young kids it would be a mistake to have one as a pet,” she says. ”A young Doberman will be threatened by those surroundings.

”German shepherds are the best overall dog there is, mainly because they are bred to watch and to take care of an area. They`re possessive as all get- out.

”When they are a puppy, they belong to you. When they grow, you belong to them. They`re that protective. Besides, the kids can walk all over it and it`ll just lick them. They`re a very mellow dog until someone threatens their area.”

Other superior pups, like the Cairn terrier (better known as Toto in

”The Wizard of Oz”), rate high because of their tendency to bark when someone enters their territory.

According to the university study, that can be enough to scare off all but the most determined burglars. Only 7 percent said they would try to break into a well-protected house, while more than half said they would find another target in the same neighborhood.

If your lifestyle doesn`t permit keeping a dog, or you happen to be a

”cat person,” there is still a way to get the bark without the beast. For about $60, you can purchase a motion-detecting barking dog alarm. Once an outdoor motion sensor detects an approaching body, the loud barking begins inside the house. As an added plus, it eats only batteries and won`t mess up the carpet.

(For information on the Heathkit ”Barking Dog Security Alarm,” call for a catalog at 800-44-HEATH.)

On the cheap

”Before people go shopping, they should know there are plenty of freebies when it comes to home security,” says Mele. ”Without spending any money you can increase the protection your house receives.

”You start by making sure your home is open to natural surveillance. That is, if someone was trying to break into your home, a neighbor or someone nearby would be able to see it.

”The majority of residential burglaries don`t occur at night,” he says. ”It`s not the guy dressed in black creeping around your house who`s doing most of the work-which means burglars have to find natural protection (in the daytime) because they can`t depend on the night to hide them.”

Landscaping then becomes the first concern. Shrouded windows and doors make for prime targets. In fact, studies show that burglars will most often enter through a back door-hidden from the street and usually also blocked from a neighbor`s view. First-floor windows are second most popular and basement windows third.

All shrubs surrounding the house should be cut to sill height, leaving no space for a burglar to work. Prickly shrubs are best around basement windows, as they offer no shelter and are a spiny welcome to unwanted guests. Also, good fences may make good neighbors, but many offer perfect cover for thieves. There should be some exposure on each side of the house, even if it means sacrificing some privacy.

”When you`re not home, you have to give others the opportunity to help watch your house,” Mele says. ”It also helps to make it appear as though you`re actually home. A little deception will go a long way.”

A stereo or television, played loud enough to be heard through the front door, can be deterrent enough.

Lockdown

Aside from these virtually cost-free precautions, there are other inexpensive ways to further ensure the safety of your possessions.

Upgrading hardware on doors and windows is one of the first and best places to start (see today`s Know-how section for details). Make sure you have a solid-core door that is fitted with a deadbolt that has a one-inch throw going into a reinforced strikeplate in the door frame. Ground-level windows should have strong frame locks that can`t be easily pried.

”For some reason, people tend not to think of the obvious, things like doors and windows, when they talk about home security,” says Officer Willis Shannon, research and crime prevention officer for the preventive programs division of the Chicago Police Department. ”If they started with the easy things, they`d find they`d get the most for their money.”

While Shannon agrees that most burglaries occur during the day, he also stresses the need for 24-hour security, including enough outdoor lighting to discourage any would-be cat burglars.

”Guys who work at night don`t want to be seen,” Shannon says. ”If your house is lit, then they`ll want nothing to do with it.”

Electronic-eye motion devices eliminate the need to keep all outdoor lights burning all night.

These ”seeing-eye” attachments range in price from about $35 to $100 and can be bought at hardware stores, home centers or retail security dealers. Any movement activates the sensor and turns on a light for up to 15 minutes before automatically deactivating.

However, Mele recommends that outdoor lighting remain on all night. In this case, look to install high-pressure sodium lighting, between 35 watts and 50 watts, which costs about 2 pennies a night to operate. The front-end cost of the fixture is about $50 to $60 and the lights last about seven years.

”Interior security systems that cost thousands of dollars are a great deterrent,” he says. ”But the average homeowner can`t afford that kind of investment. They have to move to guerrilla tactics, thinking of how someone might break into their home and then preventing that entry.

”If you don`t give them the opportunity, or make it so risky that it`s not worth the effort, they`ll leave. That`s what it takes to beat a burglar.”