The five hardest jobs in country music today are held by: George Strait`s bodyguards; Hank Williams Jr.`s opening acts; the Kentucky HeadHunters`
barber; Alabama`s trophy polisher; anyone who has to forecast winners of the 1990 Country Music Association awards.
Yes, friends, it is again that time of year when agony becomes a spectator sport. The awards program starts at 8 p.m. Monday on CBS-Ch. 2.
Therefore, this humble reporter and his intrepid spouse once more face the hillbilly gods of chance, matching wits with 6,500 music-industry crazies- disc jockeys, record executives, managers, et al-who are voting members of Nashville`s Country Music Association.
The gods in question have loaded the 1990 dice with more than the usual uncertainty: This year has the largest influx of new faces in memory, the most marked absence of old ones and a plethora of neck-and-neck races. This, finally, could be the courageous couple`s dreaded year of the skunk.
Nevertheless, here are our predictions; we pray they will not come back to haunt us.
Horizon: Nominees for this plaudit, designed to recognize the most dramatic career advancement in a single year, are Garth Brooks, Alan Jackson, the Kentucky HeadHunters, Lorrie Morgan and Travis Tritt. All are extremely deserving, but the race appears hottest between Brooks and the HeadHunters, the category`s most flamboyant stage acts and biggest record-sellers. Brooks should be the favorite of traditionalists, toward whose tastes the CMA tends to lean, while the HeadHunters should be darlings of the progressives. Spouse: Garth Brooks. Humble Reporter: Yo.
Music video: Recognizing performers and directors, this one pits the HeadHunters` ”Dumas Walker” (directed by John Lloyd Miller) and Garth Brooks` ”The Dance” (Joanne Gardner) against Kathy Mattea`s ”Where`ve You Been” (Jim May), Marty Stuart`s ”Hillbilly Rock” (Joanna Gardner) and Randy Travis` ”He Walked On Water” (Mark Coppos). The question here may be whether Brooks` moving use of film clips of such figures as President Kennedy, Martin Luther King Jr., the Challenger astronauts and the late Keith Whitley can outweigh the original artistry of the Travis production. Spouse: ”He Walked On Water.” H.R.: ”The Dance.”
Musician: With Chet Atkins` jersey retired and without each nominee`s name being tied to specific studio recording work so voters can relate it to something they`ve heard, this remains a popularity contest between dobroist Jerry Douglas, steel guitarist Paul Franklin, fiddler Johnny Gimble, jack-of- all-strings Mark O`Connor and guitarist Brent Rowan. It`s probably a race between the reputations of longtimer Gimble, a previous winner, and the younger but similarly celebrated O`Connor. Spouse: O`Connor. H.R.: Gimble.
Vocal Event: In this award for collaboration on single or album, the nominees are Vince Gill and Reba McEntire, Emmylou Harris and Willie Nelson, the Highwaymen (Johnny Cash, Waylon Jennings, Kris Kristofferson and Willie Nelson), Tanya Tucker and T. Graham Brown, and Lorrie Morgan and the late Keith Whitley. The Highwaymen albums probably have racked up the biggest sales, while the Whitley-Morgan duet may have caused the biggest stir. The spouse says the Highwaymen because how many CMA voters can resist voting for four such big names all at the same time? But H.R. counters that there also may be a lot of voters who believe that the great Whitley has yet to receive all his due, and his widow`s skyrocketing career gives them an even better excuse to accord it. Spouse: the Highwaymen. H.R.: Whitley and Morgan.
Vocal Duo: Baillie & The Boys, the Bellamy Brothers, Foster & Lloyd and Sweethearts of the Rodeo all are trying to end the long reign of the Judds in this category. The Judds are on the verge of moving to MCA from RCA and thus aren`t likely to have either company strongly behind them, and they have to lose sometime, but is the opposition strong enough yet? RCA act Baillie & The Boys seems the strongest challenger. Spouse: The Judds. H.R.: Agreed, with fingers crossed.
Vocal Group: Among the Desert Rose Band, previous winner Highway 101, the Kentucky HeadHunters, Restless Heart and Shenandoah, the rocking HeadHunters blew loudly in from the outback and proceeded to outsell everyone else. But are they too outrageous to be elected? If so, the likely choices are the ultracontemporary Restless Heart or the more country Shenandoah. Spouse: The HeadHunters are not too outrageous to be elected. H.R.: Right.
Single: The contenders are Alan Jackson`s ”Here In the Real World,”
Garth Brooks` ”If Tomorrow Never Comes,” Clint Black`s ”Killin` Time,”
Vince Gill`s ”When I Call Your Name” and Kathy Mattea`s ”Where`ve You Been.” The outcome probably will depend on how the huge popularity of Black, the rising star of Jackson and the many industry friendships of the long-apprenticed Gill vie with emotions aroused by the Brooks and Mattea songs. Spouse: ”When I Call Your Name.” H.R.: ”Killin` Time.”
Song: The nominees are the same as in the previous category, except this award goes to the songwriter/songwriters: Alan Jackson and Mark Irwin for
”Here In the Real World”; Kent Blazy and Garth Brooks, ”If Tomorrow Never Comes”; Clint Black and Hayden Nicholas, ”Killin` Time”; Vince Gill and Tim DuBois, ”When I Call Your Name”; Jon Vezner and Don Henry for
”Where`ve You Been.” The same considerations may or may not apply; the emotions aroused by each song and admiration for the subject should have a bit more pull. In that case the winner has to be Vezner and Henry`s unforgettable portrait of lifelong love. Spouse: ”Where`ve You Been.” H.R.: Right behind you, dear.
Album: The nominees are Alan Jackson`s ”Here In the Real World,” Keith Whitley`s ”I Wonder Do You Think Of Me,” George Strait`s ”Livin` It Up,”
the Kentucky HeadHunters` ”Pickin` On Nashville” and Ricky Van Shelton`s
”RVS III.” The most engaging new face is Jackson; the biggest sellers are the HeadHunters and Strait; the best vocal performances, probably by Whitley and Shelton. Whitley`s death has brought him new appreciation; his album probably is the best overall. Shelton hasn`t endeared himself to the Nashville establishment, and he must divide the traditionalist support with Jackson, Whitley and Strait. The HeadHunters can hog the progressive vote. Spouse: Oh, what the heck. ”I Wonder Do You Think Of Me.” H.R.: ”Pickin` On Nashville.”
Female Vocalist: Patty Loveless, multiwinner Reba McEntire, rookie Lorrie Morgan and perennial darkhorse Tanya Tucker challenge `89 winner Kathy Mattea, who appears to lead by an eyelash. With ”Where`ve You Been,” Mattea has had a signature hit and has proved a popular and impressively intelligent representative of country music. Loveless, the coal miner`s daughter of the
`90s, is closing fast and figures to delight traditionalist voters. Spouse:
Loveless. H.R.: Mattea.
Male Vocalist: Among Clint Black, Garth Brooks, Rodney Crowell, Ricky Van Shelton and George Strait, Black clearly has been the most dominant presence since winning the 1989 Horizon Award. Spouse: Clint Black. H.R.: I hear you.
Entertainer: This pinnacle award is supposed to recognize the best stage performer of the year, and sometimes, as when Hank Williams Jr. won it in 1987 and `88, it does. This year it pits two new to the category, the redoubtable Black and lone female Mattea, against `89 challenger Ricky Van Shelton, `89 winner George Strait and perennially imposing Randy Travis, whose tons of awards never have included this one. Conventional wisdom is it`s too soon for Black, but with so many new faces, who can rely on convention? Travis had a recent flap over asking songwriters on a new album to take reduced royalties; but many believe that, as the trend-setting traditionalist of the last half- decade, he deserves to add this jewel to his crown. Strait, an extremely popular champion, has just kept selling out Texas, and multiple-year reigns have become the fashion. Spouse: Travis. H.R.: Strait again.
So there you have the agony for 1990. When do we get to the ecstasy?
