Despite Iraqi President Saddam Hussein`s announcement that he would be willing to withdraw from Kuwait, little seemed changed for the two giant armies facing each across the cold and windy desert.
For the Iraqi soldiers crouched behind vast and intricate earthworks, it was another night of extraordinary bombing. Allied forces for the first time last Thursday used the fueled air explosion bomb, which when it detonates, spreads a vast sheet of gasoline that ignites and roasts or suffocates much of everything in its path.
Across the sand, sometimes just a few kilometers away, allied forces continued to take up combat positions and to watch the furious fireworks that shake the ground and tear the air.
A month has gone by since this war began. Even without Hussein`s indication Friday that he might be willing to ”blink,” that he might abandon an intransigence so complete that it mystified friend and foe alike, these armies will be forever changed by this war.
The Iraqis have witnessed a form of warfare they never imagined during their slow and agonizing eight-year contest with Iran. Even if allied claims are exaggerated-and many think they are conservative-the air war has swept away Iraq`s air force; sunk its small but lethal navy; destroyed one-third of its tanks, the very key to its power; leveled large parts of its nuclear and chemical war capability; crippled road systems and bridges from Baghdad to Basra; and wiped out billions of dollars worth of communications and electrification facilities.
Up to now, Iraqi forces have been incapable of protecting their country from the allies. Expensive command bunkers and revetments haven`t held against the bombs, and the nation`s early warning system was gone within days.
The Scud missiles, after years of research and upgrading by Iraq and a consortium of other nations, have proven ineffective, even as terror weapons. Iraq`s air forays and its attack on the Saudi Arabian town of Khafji only served up additional defeats.
Despite the sacrifice and the investment that Iraqis have made to build a powerful military, nothing has paid off.
Marine Brig. Gen. Richard Neal, briefing the press at Riyadh late last week, agreed that Hussein`s unexpected peace overture on Friday might well be acknowledgement by Iraq`s leaders that their situation was critical.
Taking his cue from President Bush`s brusque rejection of Hussein`s offer, Neal said the allied campaign will not abate. And only hours later, the bombers lifted off into the night sky.
Clearly Bush and his commanders in the Persian Gulf smell victory, not negotiation. As the number of Iraqi deserters grows and Iraq`s tank losses multiply, some military analysts see a collapse of Hussein`s forces as the culmination of this war.
By continuing air attacks, the allies make it difficult if not impossible for Iraqi forces to move out of their fortifications and head for home. Neal stressed to reporters that pilots would attack any troop movements because they could not determine that they were not military feints.
The problem for Hussein is how to get out of Kuwait and still remain in power. He is relying heavily on Moscow, hoping the Soviets can win him a cease-fire and some protection against retaliation by Israel.
He also is banking heavily that his Arab opponents will not want to see the region`s balance changed as radically as it would be by a devastated Iraq. Bush has offered another option to Iraq. He suggested in a speech Friday it could avoid destruction by getting rid of Hussein. Even in the first rush, the Arab states may be wary of this escalation of the UN objectives. No leader of an Arab country within the allied coalition is solidly in power. Suggesting coup d`etats makes them nervous.
From a military standpoint, the next few days may be as crucial as the final hours before the war began. Presumably Hussein`s announcement will stall the ”inevitable” allied ground attack since it seems to reinforce the notion that the war could be won by air power alone.
But to choose victory over negotiation may not be as easy a decision as it appeared Friday. The allied forces, too, have been changed by this month.
More than 700 pool reports, carrying thousands of words of interviews and observations by reporters covering the conflict, have been filed since the war began on Jan. 17. It is an extraordinary diary.
Some important themes present themselves. Despite all the ”gung ho”
quotes, few soldiers or officers in Saudi Arabia are enthusiastic for a land battle. They are determined. They are confident. But they are not
enthusiastic. Even against a reduced enemy, the fighting could be horrific.
Tank battles are high-casualty encounters. Unlike small-arms engagements, tank fighting results in massive numbers of wounds from fires and explosions. The allies` technological advantage doesn`t extend to clearing the 500,000 mines they say the Iraqis have laid along the Kuwait border. And crossing the berms and trenches under fire has to be done in a fashion little changed from World War II.
Nor are the Persian Gulf waters and beaches off Kuwait conducive to an amphibious assault, and losses during an opposed landing could be high.
The Kuwaitis say Iraqis have booby-trapped and fortified Kuwait City in anticipation of a house-to-house defense, and this fight, too, could be costly.
For Bush and Gen. H. Norman Schwarzkopf, the allied commander, last week also carried a warning that international approval for the coalition`s campaign could disolve quickly. The bombing of a bunker that the Iraqis say killed hundreds of civilians left military briefers on the defensive and the Arab members of the coalition uncomfortable.
Choosing to negotiate presents Bush with a less than perfect outcome as well. He has painted Hussein as a war criminal, but any negotiation is going to be based on guarantees of the Iraqi leader`s safety. Although Kuwaitis desperately want the war to end-many cheered when they thought Hussein`s offer was more creditable-they want Iraqis punished for executing Kuwaitis and destroying their country.
Israel, too, wants Hussein removed and his country`s military power further reduced. Many Israeli commentators Friday saw Hussein`s statement as a sign of weakness and an indication he can be defeated.
At least two compelling questions have yet to be answered: Would continued allied attacks after Hussein`s peace offer rally the Iraqi people around Hussein instead isolating him? And what can the Soviet Union offer the allies that will make them come to the bargaining table with Hussein?
