A new power has risen in the world this month, and it`s not Russia.
Germany, for years the diffident powerhouse of Europe, has suddenly seized the leadership of the European Community in a burst of political and economic diplomacy that has angered Washington and left its own European allies wondering what lies ahead.
Faster than anyone imagined possible, the landscape of Europe has changed. Germany is using its economic muscle to force its political will. The United States, for nearly 50 years the undisputed leader of the Western alliance, is so no longer. The age-old love-hate relationship between Germany and Russia, a contributor to both world wars this century, is being redefined as both nations reinvent themselves.
First, the Bonn government of Chancellor Helmut Kohl led the way toward the agreement Dec. 12 in the Dutch city of Maastricht that not only wrote the charter for economic union among the 12 EC nations but planted the seeds for a common foreign and defense policy. Kohl`s aides said he is keenly aware of the more ugly aspects of Germany`s history and wants to make sure that his reunited and wealthy nation is rooted in the broader framework of a cooperative and democratic Europe.
Washington cheered the agreement, even though it makes Europe a more potent rival. But it was less pleased by what came next: a pair of diplomatic and monetary power plays that split the Western alliance.
A week after Maastricht, Germany announced it would recognize the breakaway Yugoslav republics of Croatia and Slovenia, and would do so alone if necessary. The 11 other EC nations, most of which opposed recognition, decided they had no choice but to go along. The alternative would be the shattering of the EC`s newly minted foreign policy on its first outing.
For years, Germany has been the EC`s strongest nation economically. But while other nations like France or Britain took the bloc`s diplomatic leadership, the Germans held back, afraid of stirring historical memories on a continent still scarred by Adolf Hitler`s war.
With the Croatia-Slovenia decision, Bonn threw off that timidity and staked its claim to the EC`s political leadership. With their acquiescence, the 11 others honored that claim.
Washington protested, but in vain: The Bush administration, preoccupied with Russia, turned the Yugoslav crisis over to the Europeans and was left without much say in the EC`s recognition policy.
Germany argues that recognition only faces up to the fact that Yugoslavia is dead. In addition, it says, it may be the shock treatment necessary to force Serbia to call off its troops.
But Bonn`s critics said it was a political act, forced by the hundreds of thousands of Croatians living in Germany, that revived memories of Nazi Germany`s alliance with the fascist Ustashi movement of Croatia in the 1940s. They also fear a revival of a Teutonic bloc in central Europe, augmented by Germany`s growing investments in East European economies.
Whatever the case, Kohl called the EC vote ”a great victory for German foreign policy.” This sort of public gloating has rarely, if ever, been heard in postwar Germany.
At the same time, the Bundesbank, Germany`s central bank raised its prime lending rate to 8 percent. This came at a time when the U.S. Federal Reserve was lowering its own prime rate to 3.5 percent, and destroyed what was left of attempts by the industrial powers, led by the United States, to coordinate monetary policy.
The Bundesbank`s intention was to hold down German inflation. That inflation is only 4 percent, but Germans remain haunted by the prewar hyperinflation that helped bring Hitler to power, and well-satisfied by the postwar policy that has kept German inflation rates among the world`s lowest. Thus, while the Bundesbank is independent of the German government, its action echoed Bonn`s determination to put German interests first, no matter what anyone else thinks.
Among other things, it will force its EC partners to raise their own prime rates, undermining the attempts of some, especially Britain and France, to stimulate their economies and shake off their recessions.
For the U.S., the German move weakened the dollar and made American exports more competitive. But by prolonging European recessions, it will keep the Europeans from buying those cheaper exports.
Germany emerged from World War II a broken country, geographically and spiritually. But unlike Japan or Austria, it faced up to its past and purged its guilt over four decades of re-education and almost obsessive attention to the good opinion of the world.
In the process, it built a stable, almost model, democracy. Power was diffused through a constitution that underlines the states` rights of the German laender, or provinces. Periodic neo-Nazi revivals quickly fizzled out. So will the current plague of skinheads and immigrant-bashing, no doubt.
West Germany was a founding member of the EC. It spent 40 years on NATO`s front lines, the host to hundreds of thousands of foreign troops. Honored by its Western allies, it delicately and gradually rebuilt its ties with the East Europeans.
And it got rich. German steel, cars, electronics and chemicals conquered first Europe, then the world.
Rebuilt after World War II, it has for 20 years been the most prosperous nation in the EC. Enlightened social policies made sure this wealth was spread.
But through it all, Germany, both east and west, remained an occupied country, split into four sectors technically under the command of the United States, Soviet Union, Britain and France-the victors over Nazi Germany.
As the years passed, Germans and their neighbors wondered how long the nation would have to remain a semi-country, occupied, its sovereignty limited, never quite trusted, its soul and psyche forever under the international microscope.
That time has come. Two years after the Berlin Wall fell, one year after unification, the Germans are back.
After four decades of Cold War stability, the future of Europe has suddenly become much less clear.
The continent`s two dominant nations, Germany and Russia, have changed their very shape. The two Germanies, two medium-size states, have become one big nation commanding central Europe.
To the east, the Soviet Union has broken up, to be replaced by a brood of successor states clustered around dark, chaotic Russia.
Washington insists it still has a role to play in Europe. But with the pullback of U.S. troops and the ceding of the handling of crises like Yugoslavia, Washington is losing the power to influence events in Europe.
There is a sense in Europe of history reborn.
Throughout that history, Germany and Russia have worked a magnetism on each other, sometimes collaborating, sometimes warring, seldom to the benefit of their neighbors.
One thing has changed now. Germany is indisputably democratic and, even when flexing its muscles, is a responsible member of the world community. Nothing like the economic collapse that created Hitler is on the horizon. The EC anchors Germany, giving it scope for leadership while limiting its freedom. Nevertheless, the East Europeans, especially Poland, watch the turmoil in their two mighty neighbors and beg the West, including the U.S. and NATO, for guarantees of help.
But neither the U.S. nor NATO has figured out what its post-Cold War role in Europe is going to be.
Germany has, and is acting on it.
