When last year`s Grammy nominations were announced, music critics immediately noted the unusually strong showing by female artists, who, aided by such hot new names as Mariah Carey, Wilson Phillips and Sinead O`Connor, made an indelible impact on the annual awards show, even if most of them didn`t actually win.
But this year, there not only is a ”power trio” of top women nominees, one actually is poised to lead a sweep of the top awards not seen since Michael Jackson`s ”Thriller” blitz back in 1985. Each is an established music veteran with a strong following among important factions of the Grammy voters, and together they dominated the nominations for the prestigious album of the year and record of the year competitions. They are:
– Bonnie Raitt. Two years ago, Raitt was a surprise multiple winner for music from her ”Nick of Time” album; this time, she is considered a major contender with her latest album, ”Luck of the Draw,” for which she received five nominations. She is especially tough because she has a rare coalition of support from both rock and country factions.
– Amy Grant. Until this year, Grant was viewed primarily as the queen of Christian music, with all of her past Grammys coming in contemporary gospel categories. But with her huge ”Baby Baby” single and ”Heart in Motion” LP, she scored an impressive ”crossover” success that netted her four nominations in top mainstream categories. Grant`s gospel connections, combined with her new pop strength, give her impressive support among the voters.
– Natalie Cole. Cole, a frequent nominee in the past in R&B categories, really widened her appeal this year with the release of ”Unforgettable,” a nostalgic, jazz-tinged tribute to the music made popular in the `50s and `60s by her father, the late Nat King Cole. Cole herself is up for four top awards; in addition, the album`s music was nominated for seven other awards in songwriting and production categories.
So which of these three will be the night`s big winner? It has to be Cole, who likely will win all four of her top nominations and who will see
”Unforgettable” collect an armful of prizes from Academy members grateful to get the chance to vote for an album of standards after years of being confounded by such upstarts as Prince and M.C. Hammer.
The big loser? It looks like Grant, who doesn`t have a good shot at any of her new pop categories and didn`t qualify for her former gospel category with the crossover music on ”Heart in Motion.” Also in trouble: the rock band R.E.M., which scored multiple nominations with music from their ”Out of Time” album but will be lucky to win just one.
Here`s a capsule look at who will win the major pop, rock, R&B, rap and country awards, many of which will be presented during Tuesday night`s televised ceremonies. (Because there isn`t enough time during the TV special to give out all of the awards, some winners will be announced shortly before the big Grammy show.)
Album of the year: This usually is one of the toughest categories to call, but not when the field includes a record like ”Unforgettable,” which has wide-ranging support from most Grammy factions, including two groups of voters-jazz and classical-who rarely find much to cheer in the usual selection of pop-oriented nominees. Another factor also helps ”Unforgettable” in a big way: Unlike last year, when the influential R&B vote was badly split among three top albums, there are no other albums in the field to take a substantial part of the R&B vote away from ”Unforgettable.” It also doesn`t hurt that the two strongest challengers-R.E.M.`s ”Out of Time” and Bonnie Raitt`s
”Luck of the Draw”-will divide the important rock vote. Last but certainly not least, Grammy voters already are in a sentimental mood toward the music featured on ”Unforgettable,” because Nat King Cole this year will be among five musicians being inducted into the Grammy Hall of Fame.
Record of the year (the award goes to the artist and producer) and song of the year (goes to songwriter): Grammy history strongly favors one song for both plum awards, so let`s eliminate Raitt`s ”Something to Talk About” from the record category and Marc Cohn`s ”Walking in Memphis” from the song competition. Then skip ”Losing My Religion” (too rock for mainstream voters) and ”Baby Baby” (too lightweight for everyone else). That leaves two powerhouse singles: ”Unforgettable,” a studio-created ”duet” between Cole and her late father; and Bryan Adams` power ballad ”(Everything I Do) I Do It for You,” which easily was the year`s top-selling song. In years past, when Grammy voters paid much more attention to sales figures, the sheer popularity of ”Everything” would have assured Adams a double win in these categories. And though it would not be a major upset if he won, the mood of Grammy voters recently has been away from such commercial blockbusters.
Best new artist: This category often is a snap, because it generally includes just one or two nominees with broad support. This year it`s a nightmare, because it features three hugely popular R&B/dance acts, any one of which could have waltzed away with this category in previous years: Boyz II Men, Color Me Badd and C & C Music Factory. But the close competition is good news for an underdog-singer-songwriter Marc Cohn-who could very well sneak in and steal this one if the vote splits evenly among the other top contenders. If not, look for Boyz II Men to narrowly win out with their classy harmonies. Best pop vocal performance, female: Because Grammy rules allow nominations to be made for either a song or an album, categories sometimes wind up like this one, with one album-Mariah Carey`s ”Emotions”-competing against four singles. That adds up to another loss for Amy Grant, whose sweet ”Baby Baby” single stands virtually no chance against the vocal pyrotechnics displayed by Carey throughout ”Emotions.” One possible darkhorse: ”Something to Talk About” by Bonnie Raitt, who has become such a Grammy pet that she could win this tough category with just a single song.
Best pop vocal performance, male: In the past, a hit ballad of the magnitude of Bryan Adams` ”(Everything I Do) I Do It for You” would be an automatic winner in this mainstream category, but in recent years, the voters have been favoring nominees with a more subtle touch. One of the beneficiaries: Aaron Neville, who for two straight years has quietly won Grammys for his duets with Linda Ronstadt and now is in line for his first as a solo act with his fine ”Warm Your Heart” album.
Best pop performance by a duo or group with vocal: This is a real toughie, because the contenders include three bands with ties to alternative rock: R.E.M., Extreme and Jesus Jones. And though R.E.M. can never be counted out, the vocal work on their ”Losing My Religion” can`t compare to the shimmering harmonies displayed by Extreme on ”More Than Words.”
Best traditional pop performance: This new Grammy category (one of three added this year) likely will be just one of the armful of Grammys won by Cole & Cole`s ”Unforgettable” single. But if the voters decide to spread things around a bit, there are two strong albums that have a chance: Harry Connick Jr.`s ”Blue Light, Red Light” and Diane Schurr`s ”Pure Schurr.”
Best rock vocal performance, solo: Occasionally, the Grammy organizers decide that there were not enough strong performances during the year by female rock artists to warrant a separate competition, and so offer only one category for all solo performers. However, that should prove no problem for Grammy favorite Bonnie Raitt, whose ”Luck of the Draw” album should triumph easily over the five men in the field.
Best rock performance by a duo or group with vocal: Had R.E.M. been nominated here for their hugely popular ”Losing My Religion” single, the Georgia group would have been in line for an easy win. But ”Religion” was placed in a pop category, with R.E.M. tapped here for the less-well-known
”Radio Song.” That leaves the door wide open for the ethereal ”Silent Lucidity” by Seattle`s Queensryche.
Best hard rock performance, vocal or instrumental: This one will be very close, but look for guitarist Eddie Van Halen`s big reputation to help his band`s ”For Unlawful Carnal Knowledge” album score a victory over Guns N`
Roses` ”Use Your Illusion I.”
Best metal performance, vocal or instrumental: Look for superband Metallica to sweep to its third straight win in this category, this time with its ”Metallica” album.
Best rock song: This new category (created to match the writers` awards long contested in R&B and country) likely will go to ”Silent Lucidity” and its writer, Chris DeGarmo, though Sting could threaten with ”Soul Cages.”
Best alternative music album: There`s finally a place where Grammy voters can honor R.E.M. and their fine ”Out of Time” album, though Nirvana has been gaining momentum in recent weeks and could make things interesting with
”Nevermind.”
Best R&B vocal performance, female: In past years, this category has been dominated by Anita Baker and Janet Jackson, but neither released new albums this year. That leaves the field open to veterans such as Patti LaBelle, Gladys Knight and Aretha Franklin, but there is another surprising name to consider: deposed Miss America Vanessa Williams, who raised some eyebrows several years ago with a pair of Grammy nominations for her much-hyped debut album (she didn`t win) but has a legitimate shot this time with her fine dance single ”Runnin` Back to You.”
Best R&B performance, male: Though there will be plenty of support for the ”Godfather of Soul,” James Brown, and his comeback album ”Love Overdue,” he already has been announced as winner of a special Lifetime Achievement Award. That leaves voters free to honor the more artistic ”Power of Love” album by Luther Vandross, who also won this category last year.
Best R&B performance by a duo or group with vocal: Look for those hot newcomers, Boyz II Men, to finally pick up an award for their fine
”Cooleyhighharmony” album, though they face formidable competition from the ”Superwoman” single, which features three legendary voices: Gladys Knight, Patti LaBelle and Dionne Warwick.
Best R&B song: Look for Luther Vandross to pick up yet another award with his ”Love Power/Power of Love” medley, which he co-wrote with Marcus Miller and Teddy Vann.
Best rap performance, solo: Though this category includes two of rap`s hottest male stars-Hammer and L.L. Cool J-look for the fast-rising Queen Latifah to pull a surprise win with ”Fly Girl.”
Best rap performance by a duo or group: This is a real toughie, with voters likely split between the tongue-in-cheeck sauciness of Salt-N-Pepa`s hugely popular ”Let`s Talk About Sex” single and Public Enemy`s more serious ”Apocalypse 91 . . . the Enemy Strikes Black” album. So let`s go with the more commercial-and far less controversial-”Talk.”
Best country performance, female: Look for this one to be a hot duel between last year`s winner, Kathy Mattea, and perennial favorite Reba McEntire, who has been absent from this category for several years but likely will score a comeback win with her ”For My Broken Heart” album.
Best country vocal performance, male: It would be a Grammy upset of major proportions if this award doesn`t go to Garth Brooks, whose ”Ropin` the Wind” album has gone far beyond traditional country audiences to dominate the pop scene as well. And country Grammys tend to go to artists with a strong crossover appeal.
Best country performance by a duo or group with vocal: Last year`s winners, the Kentucky HeadHunters, are top contenders again with their
”Electric Barnyard” album, but have to contend with the sympathy vote for the Judds, who likely are in their last Grammy competition together (Naomi Judd recently retired from the duo because of illness) and thus have to be considered favorites for their ”Love Can Build a Bridge” single.
What: The 34th annual Grammy awards
Where: Broadcast live by WBBM-Ch. 2
When: 7 p.m. Tuesday
