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On your way down the stairs, you miss a step, pitch forward and tumble to the bottom.

This terrifying scenario could be avoided in many instances if stairs in new homes were built using a simple formula called 7-11. Or at least that`s the belief of Jake Pauls, a safety specialist with Hughes Associates Inc., a safety research firm in Columbia, Md. Pauls has been advocating the 7-11 concept since 1985.

What is 7-11? Basically, it means stairs that are less steep, deeper and therefore safer, according to Pauls. The current standard for stairs in homes is an 8 1/4-inch rise and a 9-inch tread. A change to a 7-inch rise and an 11- inch tread has been proposed.

Whether this is a step in the right direction will be hotly debated at the conference of the Building Officials and Code Administrators International Inc. (BOCA), to be held Sept. 20 to 25 in St. Paul.

BOCA, which is headquartered in south suburban Country Club Hills, is a group that publishes a model building code every three years. Governments in 21 states, mainly in the East and Midwest, including Illinois, have adopted provisions of the code, either in whole or in part.

But even if 7-11 for homes is voted in by BOCA, it would have to be adopted by each municipality in Illinois. The model BOCA code has no legal force of its own until it is adopted by state or local governments. Illinois has no statewide building code, but some 300 local governmental units have adopted the BOCA code.

The 7-11 controversy pits Pauls and BOCA`s code change committee, which recommended the adoption of the 7-11 standard at its April meeting, against the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), which claims the change is not necessary and will increase the cost of homes by $2,500 to $3,000 each.

”Battle lines have been drawn. There`s going to be fireworks in St. Paul,” predicted William Even, publications manager for BOCA. ”The vote should be very close. I couldn`t call this one either way.”

Some 600 to 700 members of the 12,000-member organization, two-thirds of whom are building code officials, are expected to attend the meeting. Even said about 500 code changes will be considered, but most of them are not controversial.

In 1991, BOCA adopted the 7-11 rule, but exempted residences. Members will vote on whether to drop the exception, thus requiring 7-11 in new homes, townhouses and condos.

A majority vote is needed to overturn the committee`s recommendation on 7-11.

”The timing is important because this is the last meeting before the 1993 code book is published,” Even said.

Ron Burton, code specialist for the NAHB in Washington, voiced his organization`s opposition to 7-11:

”While the safety benefits are speculative at best, implementation of this rule would significantly increase housing costs, since the 7-11 rule would require stairways to extend in the horizontal direction an additional 4 to 5 feet, which will add 12 to 15 more square feet per floor to the house design.

”We don`t disagree that stairs offer potential hazards, but there`s no hard data to support the theory that a change in stair geometry will increase safety.”

Burton said that 7-11 stairs are appropriate in commercial buildings because, in many cases, people are unfamiliar with the stairs there, whereas people are totally familiar with the stairs in their own home.

”Our contention is that there have been no conclusive safety studies since the early `70s that stair geometry affects safety. We are happy to look at other ideas that could promote stair safety, such as better lighting and non-skid tread surfaces, but a lot more study needs to be done,” Burton said. ”We don`t want to try the most expensive idea (7-11) first. This would have a big impact on entry-level housing. Buyers are not mentioning a change in stairs as something they want.”

Burton noted that the estimated $2,500 to $3,000 tab for 7-11 stairs in each home is significant because each $1,000 increase in the cost of a new home means that 40,000 buyers are priced out of the housing market.

”One out of every three buyers in the U.S. is a first-time home buyer, so it is important to assess the impact of costly changes before implementing them,” Burton said.

John Archea, professor of architecture at the State University of New York at Buffalo and a stair safety researcher, advocates 7-11, though he does not view it as the only way to improve stair safety.

”Clearly, the existing regulations for riser and tread dimensions are not adequate to meet the safety needs of American home dwellers, but there are many other aspects of stair design that ought to be regulated, especially in new home construction,” he said. ”These include uniform lighting, tread covering, treads large enough to provide adequate footing and graspable handrails.”

Archea views stairs as one of the most dangerous elements in a home, with stair accidents occurring every 18 seconds.

He admits that the definitive study on whether 7-11 works has yet to be done. ”We all want hard data. I would advocate a study in the real world, rather than the laboratory.” But he believes that type of study would be very expensive, and at present there is no funding available for it.

Archea said a study he directed in 1973 investigated 425 accidents and concluded that stair geometry is important to stair safety.

Despite the lack of specific research on 7-11 stairs, he maintains that requiring them would be the best course of action as supported by available evidence.

Evidence supporting 7-11 is based on studies in commercial structures, where 7-11 is standard, Pauls said. ”Fifty percent of stair accidents are related to riser/tread geometry, and half of those could be eliminated if 7-11 is adopted.

”If BOCA does not adopt 7-11 (for homes) at this session, it will later. The issue won`t go away; it will come back next year,” Pauls predicted.

But Pauls is optimistic that it will be adopted by the two other code groups in the country: the International Conference of Building Officials, based in Whittier, Calif., which covers western states; and the Southern Building Code Congress in Birmingham, Ala., which covers southern states.

Pauls stressed that 7-11 is more than a safety issue. ”The 7-11 stairs would improve livability of homes. When consumers find out about 7-11, there`s going to be a demand for them. These homes will be more desirable because of better stairs,” Pauls said.

”Industry reps do not address the benefits – in monetary terms or otherwise – of better stairs, which take up only an additional 0.5 to 3 percent of a dwelling`s area.”

Pauls disputes the NAHB`s claim that it would mean an additional cost of $2,500 to $3,000 per home, maintaining that little or no extra space is required. He says that a 14- to 15-square-foot increase per floor is small in comparison to the 500 square feet that the average home has gained in the last two decades.

David Dacquisto, research analyst for the NAHB National Research Center, said, ”Direct attempts to relate stair geometry to stair accidents have been difficult to perform, have given inconclusive results.”

Statistics show that women of all ages and children of both sexes are the groups at greatest risk, accounting for 75 percent of victims. ”Women and children fall down stairs for many reasons, but seldom because their feet are too large to fit on the treads,” Dacquisto said.

And where does BOCA stand on the controversy?

An editorial in the May/June issue of the BOCA Magazine stated: ”Each side on this issue has legitimate concerns, and a basis of reasonableness can be found in each position. . . . The membership essentially has to ask itself whether the safety arguments for 7-11 stairs in residences are sufficiently compelling to justify the adverse impact on housing affordability.

. . . Affordability concerns are a legitimate consideration in the code development process.”

Steve Burger, assistant building director for Du Page County, said he can see both sides of the controversy. ”Both sides have convincing arguments, but in unincorporated Du Page County we are going to stick with the stairs code the way it is right now. We have no plans at this time to go to 7-11.”

”There`s a fine line between cost and safety,” Burger said. ”Code writers don`t always look at cost as much as safety, and builders tend to look more at cost than safety.”

Brian Goralski, building director for the village of Bartlett, said that he is not in favor of the 7-11 proposition, and probably won`t vote for it.

”It would take away a lot of space, especially in townhouses and duplexes,” he said. ”Homes would have to be. stair injuries is

conservatively estimated to exceed $10 billion a year,” Pauls said. ”This is based on the `Cost of Injury in the U.S.` report that was published in 1989 and presented to Congress.”

In 1991, injuries involving stairs of all types resulted in an estimated 1 million treatments in U.S. hospital emergency rooms and almost 50,000 hospital admissions, according to the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System of the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission. Ninety-five percent of those injured were treated and released. The latest nationwide figure on deaths from stair accidents was 1,093 in 1988, according to the National Safety Center for Health Statistics, a federal agency in Hyattsville, Md. The figure includes all stair accidents, with no breakdown for residential accidents.

”The nation`s home builders remain strongly committed to home and stair saftey,” said NAHB`s Burton.

The group`s president, Robert ”Jay” Buchert, suggests a possible downside to 7-11 stairs.

”Requiring 7-11 stairs in small homes makes it very likely that designers will actually be forced to introduce new risks by adding extra steps as winders to what were formerly straight-run stairs. The resulting stairs may be even more dangerous, rather than less dangerous,” Buchert said.

”This is a serious issue for the home-building industry,” said Richard Brown, president of Cambridge Homes and president of the non-profit Chicagoland Housing Foundation, which promotes affordable housing.

”We`re not against safety, but there is no proof to show that 7-11 is safer. Adding an inch or two to stairs is not going to solve the safety problem, and would be extremely expensive in smaller, affordable homes, where every inch counts.

”This is contrary to everything the industry is doing to create affordable housing,” he added.

Orren Pickell, a Vernon Hills-based custom-home builder, said: ”The 7-11 stairs have a `Gone with the Wind` look. There`s enough room for them in homes with 6,000 to 8,000 square feet, but most of the homes we build are in the 4,000 to 4,500 range, and the foyers are tight anyway. Hundreds of thousands of dollars of architectural plans will have to be thrown out.” In answer to the contention by Pauls that 7-11 stairs would be better for the elderly, he noted that many older buyers are opting for homes with first-floor master bedrooms.

Mark Hopkins, president of OAI, an Oak Brook-based architectural firm, commented: ”If stairs get bigger, other rooms will get proportionately smaller, if all else remains equal.”

Hopkins added that 7-11 stairs would only provide a limited benefit for the elderly. ”If a person really can`t climb stairs, the best solution would be to provide a ramp or an elevator.”

Pauls said the American Association for Retired Persons has not yet recommended 7-11.

Scott Sevon, president of Palatine-based Sevvonco Inc., said builders will need to redraw hundreds of plans and the cost will be add size and cost to the house,” he said.

David Hill, president of Kimball Hill Inc., and a trustee of the Chicagoland Housing Foundation, said: ”This year we`re having tprudent time to change stair codes? While I think the new rules for access for the handicapped have a real and positive value, I see no redeeming merit in 7-11.”