According to legend, someone once asked Cole Porter, “Do you write the words first or the music first?” He answered, “Yes.” If someone asked me today, “Are airfares going up or down?” I’d have to answer “Yes” as well.
The “down” answer applies to the current rash of fare wars. In fact, as I write this column, there’s a fare war within a fare war: cuts of as much as 45 percent during a period when fares already were cut by about 25 percent. And while the latest sale period ended Sept. 17, you well might see an extension or another sale within a few more weeks.
The “down” answer also applies to routes served by America West Airlines, which extended its 30-percent-off fare war for the 10th or 11th time (I’ve lost count). Now the cutoff date for buying tickets is Oct. 27. But don’t be surprised if this deal is extended once again in another month.
And “down” now applies to the Eastern and Southeastern United States, where Continental has announced it will start a new set of low-fare flights and USAir has cut its short-haul fares. Unrestricted fares (no advance purchase, no Saturday night stay) will be 50 to 80 percent less than before. And with an advance reservation and a minimum stay, two travelers can fly for 1 cent more than a single unrestricted fare.
The “up” answer applies to other fares. A few days before the latest cut, most major lines had agreed to an increase of $20 a ticket on the less expensive coach excursion fares, an increase that probably will go into effect before this column is printed.
How can a traveler make any sense of gyrations like those? More to the point, how and when should a traveler buy tickets?
Here’s my take on the fare-war game:
1. You can look for continued sporadic nationwide fare wars. Typically, you’ll have a week or two to buy tickets, which will be good for travel for several months. Over the last few years, the typical short term “sale” cuts have been about 30 percent. Despite some cuts to 45 percent, I’d expect most future fare-war cuts to be closer to 30 percent.
Recommendation: Whenever fares are reduced by 30 percent or more, buy tickets for any trips you know you’ll take. Overall, basic fares are going up so that 30 percent off the current fare will be a better deal than 30 percent off the fare two or three months from now.
2. You also can expect a gradual expansion of areas where everyday-low-fare flights are available. For now, the low-fare airlines are concentrating on short-haul flights. But one of these days, the light will dawn on some airline exec that what works for short haul also will work for long haul.
Recommendation: If you’re lucky enough to be traveling on a route flown by one or more of the low-fare lines, you’ll find good prices year-round. In those markets, couples should look for free or very low cost companion tickets, sold by such names as Friends Fly Free on Southwest or Add a Penny, Add a Pal on Continental’s new flights.
3. To offset price wars and low-fare competition, airlines will try to raise fares anywhere they can get away with it. Particular pressure will be on year-round coach excursion fares (the ones that are used as the basis for fare-war reductions), business-travel fares and long-haul fares.
Recommendation: Don’t buy tickets at non-sale fares unless you can’t avoid it. If no low-fare line flies where you’re going, wait as long as you can for a possible new fare war. Have a travel agent check all the alternatives. The more price resistance travelers display, the greater the likelihood of future cuts.
