Like an on-the-mend patient who suffers a relapse, President Clinton is ending his first year on a downbeat, ensnarled in questions about his personal life and family investments.
One minute the president was groping for words to defend himself against allegations of marital infidelity leveled by state troopers who once guarded him, the next he was being pressed about dealings with a now-defunct Arkansas savings and loan. Only days before, he had been riding a wave of legislative victories.
It’s been that kind of year for Clinton, who entered the White House 11 months ago armed with one of most detailed and ambitious agendas in modern history and now moves to the central goal of his presidency: Universal health care.
Sometimes distracted by the controversies, more often a victim of his own naivete about the political and fiscal obstacles to change, he winds up with a mixed record in fulfilling his campaign pledges.
He’s delivered on a number of major promises, such as persuading Congress to cut the deficit, appointing more women and minorities than his predecessors and ending the gag order on abortion counseling at federally funded clinics.
He also signed the family medical leave bill and a bill permitting citizens to register to vote when they apply for a driver’s license.
He presented a universal health-care plan to Congress and assembled a task force to recommend ways of improving the welfare system, although those two initiatives won’t come up for action until next year.
But other pledges, such as a middle-class tax cut and a large public investment program, have been discarded because of resistance in Congress or budgetary constraints.
And Clinton’s political compromises on other promises, such as ending discrimination against gays in the military, left some constituencies feeling betrayed.
He stuck to his vow to shift the White House focus back to domestic affairs. But this backfired in the form of embarrassing stumbles and inconsistencies in handling foreign trouble spots like Bosnia and Somalia. And in a policy flip-flop, he continued to return Haitian boat people while struggling inconclusively to restore democracy to the island nation.
“Clinton raised our expectations to the highest of heights and in most cases, failed to deliver more than half of what he promised,” said Melissa Line, political scientist at Goucher College, Baltimore.
While saying he’s pleased with what he has accomplished, Clinton has acknowledged his frustration in trying to cut through Washington partisanship. “There really is a Washington culture (that) needs to be changed but has to be dealt with if you want to get anything done.”
While critical of Clinton’s performance on specific promises, Line and others acknowledged the gargantuan task he faces in remaking federal policies after 12 years of Republican rule in the White House. They credit him with raising the nation’s awareness of children’s health issues, homelessness, street violence and other social problems.
Clinton has achieved a national consensus for revamping the health-care system, a giant step forward even if the road map to get there remains a subject of debate, said Al From, director of the Democratic Leadership Council, a centrist group from which Clinton drew many of his proposals.
“Has Clinton been perfect? No,” From said. “It took him a while to get his stride. But when you look at the year as a whole, it was remarkable. . . . His two big promises were to grow the economy and be a different kind of Democrat and, in essence, he has kept those.”
Trying to prove his centrist credentials, however, has handicapped Clinton’s efforts to rearrange the nation’s priorities. His programs lack the sort of reach he once pledged to achieve because of an unwillingness to take the politically difficult steps of making deeper cuts in the budget or raising taxes.
“He’s backed himself into a budgetary corner,” said Michael Shuman, director of the Institute for Policy Studies, a Washington-based think tank. “He’s stuck with a deficit that limits his political options and, unfortunately, resolving the most serious problems requires money, lots of it. . . .”
After several big legislative wins, including passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Brady bill to control handgun purchases, Clinton’s standing in public opinion polls climbed to the highest level since the early days of his presidency. His 58 percent job approval rating is higher than Ronald Reagan’s at the end of his first year, although it is lower than George Bush’s and about the same as Jimmy Carter’s.
Here’s a rundown of Clinton’s track record on major pledges:
– Cut the federal budget deficit by half. A promise carried out in the White House economic plan narrowly approved by Congress in August. The program calls for whacking the deficit by $500 billion over five years through a combination of spending cuts and tax increases.
It is the government’s first serious attempt at deficit control, although the fiscal hawks caution that it only slows the growth of the budget shortfall, which is projected to climb again.
– Reduce the middle-class tax burden. Clinton not only abandoned the proposal early in the year, after discovering the deficit was worse than he thought, but also agreed to increase the gasoline tax. He kept promises to increase taxes on the affluent and give a tax break to the poor.
– Reform the political system. Legislation to revamp campaign-finance rules and stop the revolving door between government and lobbying firms is stalled on Capitol Hill.
Clinton required all top appointees to sign a pledge that they won’t use their influence to lobby government agencies for five years after leaving office. But that didn’t stop White House Deputy Chief of Staff Roy Neel from taking a high-paying job to run a telecommunications industry lobbying group, or Clinton’s legislative strategist, Howard Paster, from leaving to run a big public relations firm that lobbies.
– End the ban on homosexuals in the military. This pledge ballooned into Clinton’s first political debacle. After delaying the issue with six months of consultations with the military, the White House finally agreed to a policy of “don’t ask, don’t tell, don’t pursue,” a compromise criticized by homosexual groups that say it forces gay members of the military to remain in the closet.
– Stimulate job creation. Since Clinton took office, the economy has created about 162,000 jobs a month, a rate that would permit the administration to reach its pledge of 8 million new jobs by 1996-but only if there are no dips or setbacks in the recovery over the next three years.
Clinton’s promise of a $20 billion “Rebuild America” fund for roads and bridges was cast aside, just as his proposed $16 billion economic stimulus package of job creation and public investment measures died in Congress in the spring.
Unable to fund any big jobs program, the White House points to passage of NAFTA and the signing of a global trade agreement as ways of expanding overseas markets for U.S. goods and thus creating domestic work.
– Create a national service program. Congress enacted bills last summer making college loans more available and creating “Americorps,” which will give educational awards of up to $4,725 a year to students who perform community service. The program, much smaller in scale than Clinton once envisioned, is limited to 100,000 participants.
– Fight crime. Clinton signed the Brady bill last month, putting a five-day waiting period on handgun purchases. His proposals to put 100,000 more police officers on the streets, fund boot camps for troubled youths and toughen criminal penalties are being worked on by a congressional conference committee.
No one expected Clinton to carry out every campaign promise in his first year. As administration number-crunchers work on the 1995 federal budget, they say they are trying to pare spending to free funds for Clinton’s pet proposals of investing more in jobs, education and infrastructure.
Such cuts would be especially pivotal in moving ahead with Clinton’s pledge to end welfare as we know it by taking people off the rolls after two years.
