Gov. Jim Edgar holds a better than 2-to-1 margin over Dawn Clark Netsch in his bid for re-election, having done an effective job of defining his opponent early in the campaign, a Tribune poll shows.
The Republican incumbent’s popularity is at an all-time high three months before the Nov. 8 election, the poll found, whereas voters have formed a negative opinion of his Democratic challenger and the education funding/tax relief plan that is the centerpiece of her campaign.
In June, Edgar attacked Netsch’s record on crime-ranked by voters as their chief concern-with 16 days of statewide TV advertising. Netsch chose to postpone a belated counteroffensive last month following the governor’s emergency open-heart surgery.
The result is a substantial lead for Edgar over Netsch of 59 percent to 24 percent among registered likely voters, with just 16 percent undecided and 1 percent preferring some “other” choice, the poll found.
Edgar is getting support from about two out of three voters in every region of the state except Chicago, where he trails Netsch 47 percent to 37 percent; Netsch gets only about a fifth of the vote outside Chicago.
The governor even leads Netsch, the state’s first female Democratic gubernatorial nominee, among women voters, 57 percent to 25 percent.
And the survey findings contain more good news for Edgar: 71 percent of Illinois’ voters approve of the job he is doing as governor; 54 percent say he deserves re-election to a second term; 52 percent like his handling of state fiscal matters; and 54 percent see him as the “more effective leader.”
When asked which of the two veteran officeholders is “most qualified” for the job of governor, 50 percent of the voters say Edgar while 14 percent identify Netsch, the poll found.
The random sample telephone poll was conducted last weekend, July 28 through 31, by Market Shares Corp. of Mt. Prospect and has an error margin of 3 percentage points.
It comes on the heels of campaign finance disclosure reports filed Monday that show Edgar with a fundraising advantage over Netsch of $5.2 million to $1.1 million as of June 30.
Although Edgar has been recuperating from quadruple-bypass surgery since July 8, his standing in the poll apparently does not reflect an electorate feeling sympathetic about his health.
The findings are comparable to those in a survey taken for the Illinois State Medical Society, a GOP-leaning interest group, two weeks before his operation. That poll showed Edgar leading Netsch 60 percent to 31 percent. And, according to the new Tribune survey, 94 percent of voters say that Edgar’s heart surgery won’t influence their choice for governor.
The Tribune poll was under way at the time it was announced that Netsch’s Democratic running mate for lieutenant governor, state Sen. Penny Severns of Decatur, had a malignant tumor removed from her left breast last Thursday.
In any event, the Edgar vs. Netsch race is certain to tighten as the fall campaign heats up.
Netsch has experience with come-from-behind wins, having trailed early in last March’s Democratic primary campaign before surging to victory by a comfortable margin over two opponents.
Still, the new poll findings suggest she has much to overcome against Edgar, and a campaign spokeswoman said Thursday that the Democrat will initiate her TV advertising strategy within days.
Edgar’s effort to flatten Netsch’s political bounce immediately after her historic nomination by portraying her as a liberal out of step with mainstream opinion, followed by ads that slammed her opposition to capital punishment, has had an impact.
The poll found that 67 percent of the voters have a favorable impression of Edgar to just 18 percent with an unfavorable opinion, while only 31 percent of them have a positive opinion of Netsch and 36 percent hold a negative view about her.
Among the self-identified political independents, a group she needs to sway, 35 percent expressed a negative opinion of Netsch.
A majority of voters, 54 percent, identify crime as the foremost issue of the campaign, and half say Edgar would be “tougher on the problem of crime.” Three-quarters of all voters favor the death sentence for convicted killers, and by a 4-to-1 margin they believe Edgar most closely represents their view on the subject. A third of the voters characterize Netsch as “too liberal, not mainstream.”
Netsch’s signature issues-her grasp of state fiscal matters as the state comptroller since 1991 and a $2.5 billion proposal for increased education spending and property tax relief-haven’t caught on with the general electorate as they did with Democratic primary voters.
Consequently, she has been unable to capitalize on Edgar vulnerabilities and an increasing perception that overall, the state is on the wrong track.
Thirty-eight percent took that view in the current poll compared to 34 percent who said so a year ago. At the same time, 41 percent think the state is headed in the right direction, whereas last August, 48 percent thought so.
And three-quarters of all voters say finances are “a serious problem affecting many Illinois public schools,” a message that Netsch has drummed on since her 18-year stint in the state Senate. Even 67 percent of Edgar’s voters are concerned about school finances.
But, judging from his job approval and re-elect ratings, the incumbent is not being blamed for voter angst over crime, public school funding or the direction the state is headed.
Tribune polls have tracked Edgar since he first ran for governor four years ago. His current 66 percent favorable opinion rating is 10 percentage points greater than it was one year ago and 6 points over where Edgar stood with voters at this point in the 1990 campaign. And his 71 percent job approval rating is 9 points higher than it was last August.
By a 2-to-1 margin, Edgar is considered “best at handling state finances” and slightly “more honest about spending and taxes,” although Netsch has assailed him as having broken a 1990 pledge to hold the line on taxes. Netsch, meanwhile, is seen by 39 percent of the voters as the candidate who “would favor excessive tax increases,” compared to 14 percent who felt that way about Edgar.
And when voters are asked which candidate has the “best ideas for providing public school funds,” the niche that Netsch has tried to carve for herself, she is picked by only 24 percent, compared to 27 percent for Edgar.
This helps explain why voter opinion of the Netsch plan is split.
She was propelled to the Democratic nomination on the “straight shooter” appeal of her unorthodox plan: a $2.5 billion income tax increase to include $1 billion in new school spending, $1 billion in property tax relief and $500 million in tax exemptions for low- and middle-income families.
Now, however, the poll found 42 percent of voters favor the plan and 41 percent are opposed to it. A majority of Chicago voters, 53 percent, embrace the proposal. The leading opposition was among voters in suburban Cook County and the five collar counties, where half oppose the plan.
The Edgar camp has characterized the proposal as a “42 percent tax increase,” because the income tax rate on individuals would go to 4 1/2 percent from 3 percent. Many people, though, would realize property tax breaks or benefit from personal exemptions.
The negative strategy has been effective. After hearing it described as a substantial tax hike, support for the Netsch plan drops to 24 percent of voters, the poll found; the sharpest erosion occurs in suburban Cook County and in Downstate areas.
Among undecided voters, support for the proposition drops from 39 percent to 24 percent when it is characterized as a “42 percent” tax increase.
Netsch has been traveling the state in a school bus the past two weeks to tout her plan, and campaign spokesman Peter Giangreco said it has been well received. Notwithstanding the poll results, he said: “We feel pretty good about things.”
HOW POLL WAS CONDUCTED
The findings of the Tribune poll are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 887 Illinois registered voters who are likely to vote in the Nov. 8 general election.
In a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that results will differ by no more than plus or minus 3 percentage points from results obtained if all Illinois voters were questioned.
The margin of potential error for subgroups within the larger sample is greater. Market Shares Corp. of Mt. Prospect conducted the poll from July 28 to July 31.
