The Chicago Auto Show is a multimillion-dollar roll of the dice.
Wheel in the new fashions for spring while teasing the folks with a sampling of what’s coming this fall-and perhaps a year or two beyond.
Sit back and watch not only how many of them kick tires, but also who does the kicking-people who say they want/need a new vehicle or folks who simply like applying shoetip to steel belted radial because they have nothing better to do.
The show is used as a read on what the market could/should do in the next several months, not only to gauge what vehicles get the most attention-sports cars or economy cars, pickup trucks or mini-vans-but also to see whether the consumer mood is festive or dour coming into the industry’s spring selling season.
Are the 900,000-plus people who will visit the show in McCormick Place potential buyers or “just looking, thank you”?
Many of the faces in the crowd are researchers, listening to what the folks have to say about the vehicles. In many cases visitors will be cornered by those taking surveys in an attempt to determine their likes and dislikes about the vehicles-from colors to options.
Several vehicles on display are equipped with counters in the doors and seats that click off each time someone gets in and sits down. Lots of people open doors-click-but how many of those are so interested in that vehicle that they’ll sit in the seat-click, click? And what vehicles are getting the most door-opening, seat-sitting attention-big or small, luxury or economy, import or domestic, car or truck, two-door or four-door, and in what color?
The manufacturers also pay close attention to viewer reaction to concept vehicles, some of which are thinly disguised versions of production models coming out in a year or two or are put on turntables to determine whether there’s enough consumer interest to proceed with development.
The Oldsmobile Antares concept, for example, is strikingly similar to the 1997 replacement for the Olds Cutlass, and the Pontiac 300 GPX concept you see at the show is about 99.99 percent the same as the production version that arrives in showrooms for the 1997 model year. Did the automakers guess right with the designs? The automakers will keep close track of the size and demographics of the crowds those vehicles lure.
With the Lincoln 2000 luxury two-seat roadster or the Chrysler Atlantic luxury coupe concepts, the manufacturers are listening to determine whether consumers reach for cameras to take pictures for posterity or reach for a salesperson to learn when and if they can buy one.
The Dodge Viper, you may recall, started life as a concept that so captured public imaginations that Chrysler Chairman Lee Iacocca’s mail was brimming with deposit checks from those who wanted to be the first to buy one.
The timing of the show also is important as the industry is heading into the spring buying season, second in size and importance only to the fall, when the new models are unveiled. The show helps the automakers get feedback on what’s hot, what’s not as they head into spring.
Hot or not, of course, shows up on the sales charts. The Top 10 leaders among cars for the 1994 calendar year were the Ford Taurus, Honda Accord, Ford Escort, Toyota Camry, Saturn, Pontiac Grand Am, Honda Civic, Toyota Corolla, Chevrolet Cavalier and Nissan Sentra.
Among trucks, the Top 10 were the Ford F-Series, the Chevy C/K Series, Ford Ranger, Ford Explorer, Dodge Caravan, Chevrolet S-10, Jeep Grand Cherokee, Dodge Ram, Plymouth Voyager and Toyota compact pickup.
Hot or not, of course, also shows up in the number of units on those sales charts. The Ford F-Series full size pickup, posted sales of 646,039 to capture not only the truck sales title, but also to be the No. 1 selling vehicle in the industry. The best-selling car, the Ford Taurus had sales of 397,037 units, or 249,002 less than the Ford pickup truck.
Among the Top 10 selling vehicles-cars and trucks combined-five would be trucks: F-Series (No. 1), C/K (No. 2), Ranger (No. 5), Explorer (No. 8) and Caravan (No. 9); and five would be cars: Taurus (No. 3.), Accord (No. 4), Escort (No. 6), Camry (No. 7) and Grand Am (No. 10).
Hot or not isn’t just a result of customer demand, it’s also a function of factory supply. When a new model is brought to market or an old model undergoes a major redesign, production startup shrinks the supply line.
As evidence of this, the Chevrolet Lumina, which underwent a major restyling for the 1995 model year last fall, was only the 39th best-selling vehicle in the industry for the 1994 calendar year. Now that production is catching up with demand for the new model, in January, the first month of the new calendar year, Lumina has moved up to the 16th in the industry and 8th among cars.
As another example, the Ford Contour was the replacement last fall for the Ford Tempo. Contour was barely a pencil scratch in the 1994 sales totals as factories slowly launched production and supplies were hard to come by. But now that production is moving up to speed, sales in January made it the 20th best-selling vehicle in the industry and the 10th best-selling car.
A couple vehicles face supply problems that should translate into lower sales as the factory temporarily halts output to convert to a redesign.
Chrysler mini-vans will lose production as plants convert to the next generation coming out in April, and the Ford Taurus will suffer a brief supply loss from the work stoppage needed to convert to the next generation model coming out this fall.
The Ford F-Series truck awaits the same fate as Ford prepares to bring out a new model in the fall, as does the Pontiac Grand Am with its makeover planned to arrive in the fall.
Hot or not by market segment seems to indicate that sport-utility vehicles remain strong as do pickups and midsize cars.
A few new models at the show-the Toyota RAV4, Isuzu Sidekick Sport, Suzuki X-90 and Chevrolet Geo Tracker four-door-indicate an emerging trend among sport-utilities-smaller, less expensive vehicles for those who want the look and the four-wheel-drive traction but balk at the $25,000 to $30,000 stickers of the larger models. These models should make sport-utilities even stronger.
The new F-150 redesign at Ford as well as an all-new Tacoma compact pickup from Toyota as well as the recently arrived extended-cab version of the Dodge Ram will strenthen that market.
Vans have been hot for some time, and Chrysler is using the show to spotlight its next generation mini-van, the 1996 Chrysler, Dodge and Plymouth vans with such new features as sliding doors on the driver and passenger sides.
Mini-vans, however, are meeting stiff competition from sport-utilities, which the automakers say are seen as sportier. As an indication of some changes coming in vans, Ford has equipped a Windstar mini-van with a V-8 engine and added cosmetic treatment to come up with the SHO-Star, focusing on performance and not just practicality.
There appears to be some softness in the economy market, but things should change this spring as Chevy and Pontiac bring out convertible entries in their respective Cavalier and Sunfire series as well as more powerful engines and 4-speed automatic transmissions that until now had been absent from their subcompact lineups. And in the fall, Escort gets an overdue application of new cosmetics.
A watchful eye also is focused on luxury cars. The Japanese imports seem to be faring well, but for the most part it’s in the lower end of the Lexus, Infiniti, Acura lines that are hot as opposed to the $50,000 versions.
DOMESTIC AUTO SALES
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Here’s a comparison of U.S. sales of domestically made cars in 1994 and 1993.
1994 1993
GM 3,057,872 2,908,689
Ford 1,938,841 1,790,754
Chrysler 811,824 834,132
Honda 464,622 417,928
Toyota 384,048 368,053
Nissan 537,159+ 251,084
Mitsubishi 117,498 75,358
Mazda 109,165 100,441
Subaru 56,018 49,395
TOTAL 7,477,047 6,795,834
+ Total U.S. sales
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ASIAN AUTO SALES
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Here’s a comparison of U.S. sales by Asian carmakers in 1994 and 1993.
1994 1993
Toyota 765,144 741,826
Honda 762,242 716,440
Nissan 537,159+ 482,334
Mazda 282,799 259,890
Mitsubishi 201,017 167,692
Hyundai 126,095 108,796
Acura 112,137 108,291
Subaru 100,169 104,179
Lexus 87,419 94,677
Infiniti 51,449 50,516
Suzuki 7,136 6,608
Isuzu 109 1,762
TOTAL 3,032,766 2,843,011
+ Total U.S. sales
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EUROPEAN AUTO SALES
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Here’s a comparison of U.S. sales by European carmakers in 1994 and 1993.
1994 1993
Volkswagen 92,368 43,902
BMW 84,501 78,010
Volvo 81,788 72,955
Mercedes 73,002 61,899
Saab 21,679 18,784
Jaguar 15,195 12,734
Audi 12,575 12,528
Porsche 5,838 3,728
Alfa Romeo 565 1,325
Peugeot 0 3
TOTAL 387,511 305,868
Source: Industry sales statistics
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TOP SELLERS
Here are the 10 top-selling cars and light trucks for the 1994, 1993 and 1992 calendar years. %%
Passenger cars
1994 sales 1993 sales 1992 sales
Ford Taurus 397,037 Ford Taurus 360,448 Ford Taurus 409,751
Honda Accord (367,615 Honda Accord 330,030 Honda Accord 393,477
Ford Escort 336,967 Toyota Camry 299,737 Toyota Camry 286,602
Toyota Camry 321,979 Chevrolet Cavalier 273,617 Ford Escort 236,622
Saturn 286,003 Ford Escort 269,034 Honda Civic 219,228
Honda Civic 267,023 Honda Civic 255,579 Chevrolet Lumina 218,114
Pontiac Grand Am 262,310 Saturn 229,356 Chevrolet Cavalier 212,347
Toyota Corolla 210,926 Chevrolet Lumina 219,683 Pontiac Grand Am 210,332
Chevrolet Cavalier 187,263 Ford Tempo 217,644 Ford Tempo 189,457
Nissan Sentra 172,148 Pontiac Grand AM 214,761 Toyota Corolla146,636
Light-duty trucks
Ford F-Series 646,039 Ford F-Series 565,089 Ford F-Series 488,539
Chevrolet C/K 580,445 Chevrolet C/K 518,027 Chevrolet C/K 455,250
Ford Ranger 344,744 Ford Ranger 340,184 Ford Explorer 306,681
Ford Explorer 278,065 Ford Explorer 302,201 Ford Ranger 247,777
Dodge Caravan 268,013 Dodge Caravan 262,838 Dodge Caravan 244,149
Chevrolet S-10 250,991 Jeep Grand Cherokee217,232 PlymouthVoyager201,016
Jeep Grand Cherokee 238,512 Plymouth Voyager 211,813 Chevy S-10 191,982
Dodge Ram 232,092 Ford Aerostar 191,148 Toyota compact truck175,150
Plymouth Voyager 211,494 Chevrolet S-10 183,700 Ford Aerostar 166,951
Toyota pickup 204,212 Toyota compact truck 112,160 Ford Econoline165,407
Source: Industry sales statistics %%
