Airbus Industrie, the European aircraft manufacturing consortium, projected Tuesday that the world’s airlines will need 15,000 new aircraft over the next 20 years.
Airbus said more than 80 percent of the 7,300 jets now in use will have to be replaced, and many more new planes will be needed to keep up with the growing number of passengers.
About 1,600 airplanes are already on order, leaving Airbus and U.S. rivals Boeing Co. and McDonnell Douglas Corp. to fight for orders on another 13,400 planes-worth $1 trillion at current prices, said Adam Brown, an Airbus planner. Some of the demand, perhaps 15 percent, can be met by airlines retooling used airplanes, he said.
Despite a recession that handed the airline business record losses in the 1990s, Airbus projects air travel demand will grow at an average annual rate of 5.1 percent over the next 20 years.
Though aircraft demand will be mostly in the 125- to 350-seat category, Airbus predicts that airlines also will demand 800 planes able to carry more than 500 passengers. Airbus and Boeing have discussed jointly developing such a giant plane.
