Monday’s Academy Awards show, the 67th, will feature a new host-TV’s David Letterman-glamour galore, the usual batch of coy introductions, career awards for Clint Eastwood and Michelangelo Antonioni.
And, almost certainly, a batch of Oscars for lots of people involved with “Forrest Gump.”
Why “Gump”? Because it’s the perfect Oscar movie, full of crowd-pleasing sentiment and idealism and the surface virtuosity pros notice.
But because nothing is ever really sure on an Oscar show-beyond numerous speeches thanking relatives and employers-we can’t really know the outcome. Things happen unexpectedly, just as they do in Forrest’s famous box of chocolates.
Will supporting cast favorites Martin Landau and Dianne Wiest survive potential rub-outs from “Pulp Fiction” hard cases Samuel Jackson and Uma Thurman? Will the voters blunt the “Hoop Dreams” controversy by giving it the editing prize?
We won’t know until Monday (8 p.m., ABC-Ch. 7). But meanwhile, here’s one vote against retaining David Letterman as host, however well he does. Nothing against Dave, but for symbolic reasons, it’s better to have Oscar hosts from the movies, like Bob Hope or Billy Crystal, than from television.
If Crystal won’t do it anymore, why not hire the obvious perfect Oscar host, Robin Williams? Is Motion Picture Association president Jack Valenti still steamed because Williams once called him “Boom Boom” on the show? No one should hold a grudge that long. Life is too short, the Oscar show too long.
And life, as we all know by now, is, well, like a box of chocolates. If everything goes as expected, eight to 10 of those bonbons will be pulled out by “Forrest Gump.” Here are my educated guesses:
Best Supporting Actor: As the morphine-ravaged Bela Lugosi, caught up in the infectiously addlebrained Z-movies of lovable crackpot “Ed Wood,” Martin Landau gives as impressive a performance in as archetypal an Oscar role as you can imagine. Even in one of the most competitive fields in this year’s Oscars, Landau has an overwhelming edge. (But not a prohibitive one. “Pulp Fiction’s” Samuel Jackson, who finished strong in every critics poll in both Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor categories, benefits now by his restriction to one.)
Prediction: Martin Landau.
Best Supporting Actress: Like Landau, Dianne Wiest has a great, flamboyant ham role: the alcoholic diva Helen Sinclair of Woody Allen’s theatrical comedy “Bullets Over Broadway.” Like Landau, she’s been winning everything in sight. And, like Landau, she has someone from “Pulp Fiction” breathing down her neck: Uma Thurman as the overdosing gang wife. Though Wiest is at a disadvantage-she has co-star Jennifer Tilly splitting the “Broadway” vote, and Thurman as the only real candidate for the Academy’s youth bloc-there’s something crazily impressive about barmy, boozy Helen. (Can the voters resist the chance to hear Wiest breathe “Don’t speak” again, on stage?)
Prediction: Dianne Wiest.
Best Documentary: Defenders of the Academy’s documentary committee say the group’s many detractors don’t understand their selections, and specifically their rejection of “Hoop Dreams,” because they haven’t seen all the films. This year, I saw four of the five nominees. I still can’t understand their selections.
Those four were “Complaints of a Dutiful Daughter,” a poignant but short portrait of Alzheimer’s disease; “D-Day Remembered,” a well-handled hourlong archival history; “A Great Day in Harlem,” the charming jazz memoir that shared the Chicago Film Festival’s 1994 documentary prize; and “Freedom on My Mind,” the fiery Mississippi civil rights chronicle. Only one of them is in “Hoop Dreams’ ” artistic league: “Freedom on My Mind,” which actually beat “Hoops” for best documentary at the Sundance Film Festival.
Prediction: “Freedom on My Mind.”
Best Cinematography: Ordinarily, you’d expect this prize to go easily to “Forrest Gump.” Maybe it will. But “Gump” cinematographer Don Burgess has such scant previous credits that voters may opt instead for the critics groups’ frequent choice, Stefan Czapsky (“Ed Wood”), or the American Society of Cinematographers’ pick, Roger Deakins (“The Shawshank Redemption”).
Prediction: Roger Deakins.
Best Editing: Let’s go with heart. Normally, this award would be a lock for the “Forrest Gump” editing team. But Oscar voters love sentiment and happy endings. Here’s their chance to redeem the extraordinary silliness of their documentary committee.
Prediction: Frederick Marx, Steve James, Bill Haugse (“Hoop Dreams”).
Best Music: The recent stellar crop of Disney feature cartoons has owned these categories of late; this year should be another Disney sweep. The only question may be which of three Elton John-Tim Rice “Lion King” songs will beat the rest.
Predictions: Hans Zimmer (“The Lion King”) for Best Original Score and “Can You Feel the Love Tonight?” (“The Lion King”) for Best Original Song.
Best Art Direction and Costume Design: Two categories in which classy period movies reign supreme (though “Gump” could grab one more here).
Predictions: “The Madness of King George” for Art Direction and “Little Women” for Costume Design.
Best Makeup, Visual and Sound Effects: Dracula (Landau as Lugosi) vs. Frankenstein (De Niro as the Monster) in the makeup category. The others look like a “Gump” sweep.
Predictions: “Ed Wood” for Makeup and “Forrest Gump” for Visual Effects, Sound, Sound Effects.
Best Foreign-Language Film: Of three 1994 nominees I’ve seen, “Eat Drink Man Women” is the most entertaining, “Strawberry and Chocolate” the most poignant, “Before the Rain” the most challenging. But the heaviest committee buzz was on the other two nominees: Italian Golden Globe winner “Farinelli” (about the famed 18th Century castrato singer) and Nikita Mikhalkov’s Russian entry, “Burnt by the Sun.” Because the foreign-language committee is so large, and because the full membership must see all five films at special screenings in order to vote at all, the panel’s favorites often win.
Prediction: “Farinelli.”
Short Films: These three are the backbreakers for Oscar predictors, because so few of us get to see them. This year, I’ve solicited opinions from critic friends who attended screenings.
Predictions: “Straight From the Heart” for Best Documentary Short, “Franz Kafka’s It’s a Wonderful Life” for Best Live Action Short and “Bob’s Birthday” for Best Animated Short.
Best Director: There is one near-infallible Oscar indicator: the Director’s Guild vote. This year, the Guild winner was Chicago’s Robert Zemeckis for “Forrest Gump.” The only person with a prayer to beat him is “Pulp’s” Quentin Tarantino.
Prediction: Robert Zemeckis.
Best Screenplay (original): “Pulp Fiction’s” best shot is in this category, but it’s not a sure thing. Quentin Tarantino has strong competition from Richard Curtis (“Four Weddings and a Funeral”) and Woody Allen (“Bullets Over Broadway”), and some Academy members may be offended by “Pulp’s” raw violence and language. Nevertheless . . .
Prediction: Quentin Tarantino.
Best Screenplay (adapted): “Forrest Gump’s” Eric Roth has taken heat for his often whimsical conception of ’60s dissidents. (But then, the whole movie is pretty whimsical.) Otherwise this is a rare adaptation that improves on the book.
Prediction: Eric Roth.
Best Actor: Tom Hanks’ Gump and Paul Newman’s Sully in “Nobody’s Fool” are supposed to be in a two-everyman race (though I think Travolta has a shot, and “The Madness of King George’s” Nigel Hawthorne could pull off the night’s biggest surprise). And while it’s probably untrue that Hanks is handicapped because no one can win two Oscars in a row-Luise Rainer, Spencer Tracy and Jason Robards all did-Oscar voters do like to spread the wealth.
Still, it’s hard to imagine “Forrest Gump” raking in all those prizes while Hanks stays empty-handed. (What does he think? Asked about the Oscars while backstage at the recent Chicago Film Critics Awards, Hanks replied quietly: “I’ve already got one.”)
Prediction: Tom Hanks (by a nose).
Best Actress: By all rights, Jessica Lange, as the scandalously sexy Army wife of “Blue Sky,” should be a sure thing. She won big in the pre-Oscar contests. And her main competition-Jennifer Jason Leigh in “Mrs. Parker and the Vicious Circle” and Linda Fiorentino in “The Last Seduction”-weren’t nominated. And Lange is fantastic in “Blue Sky.”
But there’s a catch. In the Oscars, it’s often a combination of role and actress that inspires voters. Great as Lange was, the movie itself falls down at the end. The same goes for the parts played by Jodie Foster (“Nell”) and Susan Sarandon (“The Client”). And Miranda Richardson, as tormented Mrs. T.S. Eliot (“Tom and Viv”), is in the least visible film.
That leaves Winona Ryder as Jo March in “Little Women,” a very plausible Oscar part and performance. But some inside Oscar watchers say voters-especially older men-aren’t even watching “Little Women.” If Ryder had won even one pre-Oscar prize, I’d pick her. As it is . . .
Prediction: Jessica Lange.
Best Picture: “Forrest Gump” hasn’t been the most consistent pre-Oscar winner. Its main competitor, “Pulp Fiction,” was, beginning with a triumph at last year’s Cannes Film Festival.
Other than that, it’s hard to see how “Gump” can lose. What rival beats it? “Quiz Show” is a bit bland and class-conscious. “The Shawshank Redemption” (otherwise a perfect candidate) wasn’t a hit. “Four Weddings and a Funeral” is too fun, frothy and British, and “Pulp Fiction” is too nasty, edgy and calculatedly shocking.
If “Forrest Gump” is the classic Oscar-winning best movie, “Pulp Fiction” may be the classic Oscar also-ran: like “Citizen Kane,” “Dr. Strangelove” and “Goodfellas.” History will honor it, but not the Academy. This time around, the “Gump” probably can’t be dumped.
Prediction: “Forrest Gump.”
