If you hate crowds, then a trip to the ballpark might be a perfect outing. These days, after all, there’s plenty of room to stretch.
The images are apparent on television, in pictures of desolate seating sections at stadiums nationwide. Or, as if to accentuate scarcity, the cameras might find a lone straggler in an otherwise barren upper deck.
Despite the national pastime’s long-awaited return after eight months in hibernation–plus a $10 million marketing effort and heavily discounted tickets–fans are not coming out. So far, neither passions nor bargains have succeeded in filling seats.
Attendance at major-league games has dropped a staggering 20.6 percent since last season, according to league figures, which translates into more than 2.1 million tickets in just one month. With 358 games complete through Wednesday, the average crowd has shrunk from 29,417 fans per game in 1994 to 23,351 fans in 1995.
But why?
Are fans, angry over the sport’s bitter and continuing labor problems, making conscious decisions to stay away? Or did the season’s abrupt start, after months of uncertainty, hurt each team’s ability to effectively sell tickets for springtime games?
The answer, which probably involves a combination of reasons, has important implications. Some $150 million in ticket sales could be at stake.
A prolonged drop in attendance, prompted by disillusionment among fans, would have a grave impact on baseball’s already shaky financial health. A temporary drop, prompted by timing and nature, would be much less harmful.
According to Financial World magazine, for example, the St. Louis Cardinals would have earned $26.8 million in ticket sales during a whole 1994 season. If attendance at Busch Stadium continues at that pace, off by about one-quarter this year, the Cardinals stand to lose some $7 million in revenue.
Such a scenario certainly would hurt a team that Financial World expected to make just $500,000 in profits last year.Teams would have averaged $200,000 in losses even without a strike.
The attendance figures are particularly striking because fans have always returned after previous interruptions. In 1982, following a 50-day strike in 1981, baseball set attendance records in both leagues.
Management and union officials now concede that last season’s strike, which forced cancellation of the World Series, is having a more pronounced effect. They do not, however, believe that disgust among fans is necessarily the most important factor.
“I think it’s unlikely that there are very many fans who are saying, `I want to go to a game, but I won’t,’ ” said Donald Fehr, executive director of the players association. “What more people probably are saying is, `I really haven’t been paying much attention to baseball lately and maybe I’ll start to again soon.’ “
Indeed, baseball knew that it needed to pitch its product–including cheap tickets and additional promotions. On Opening Day, the league unveiled an advertising campaign called “Welcome to the Show.”
Club executives are quick to cite the marketing problems they faced when owners decided to open with regular players in late April, suddenly ending speculation about lockouts and replacements. Teams were left with just three weeks to sell tickets, a process that usually takes at least three months–especially for groups, which generally require more time to finalize plans.
“All the groups are now pushed back, if they’ve even been scheduled at all,” said Bill Mahre, vice president of sales and marketing for the Minnesota Twins. “They said, `We’ve got to plan something for our company–we may go to something else this year.’ “
Mahre noted that groups usually comprise about 20 percent of Minnesota’s ticket sales. The club’s attendance is down almost 29 percent.
Rob Gallas, senior vice president of marketing and broadcasting for the White Sox, said heavy rains also have hurt. Sox attendance is off more than 26 percent over 14 dates.
“If it wasn’t for the weather, I think we’re down about 10 percent, which seems about right since we lost some prime selling time,” Gallas said.
Many officials believe that attendance will begin to return as summer takes hold, a theory that could get its first test this weekend. The Memorial Day holiday traditionally entices huge crowds.
As the season progresses, however, fickle fans might pay more attention to hot teams and hot players. Indeed, the division-leading Cubs have experienced one of the smaller declines in attendace–about 8.3 percent.
Andy MacPhail, president of the Cubs, said, “The teams that do better on the field will be insulated.” He cautioned, however, that “we don’t see ourselves as immune”–and most teams plan to continue aggressive marketing campaigns.
Even at Baltimore’s acclaimed Camden Yards, where Orioles shortstop Cal Ripken is chasing Lou Gehrig’s legendary streak of 2,130 consecutive games played, attendance is off by 16.4 percent.
The foremost cure, according to many executives, would be a collective bargaining agreement between owners and players. Until the two sides settle their dispute, and thus guarantee a postseason, many fans may be unwilling to risk more heartbreak.
Said acting baseball commissioner Bud Selig, owner of the Milwaukee Brewers, “We need stability and we need a lack of acrimony and anger.”
Eric Yaverbaum, co-founder of a national group called Strikeback, agrees wholeheartedly. He believes that the low attendance numbers largely reflect widespread fan frustration, and he is happy with the effect.
Yaverbaum said baseball finally has crossed a line with fans, who won’t return again until owners and players agree on a labor agreement. He hopes that low attendance will hurt revenues and force baseball into such a settlement.”If fans stay away a significant amount of time, baseball can’t mess with us again,” Yaverbaum said.
Had the 1994 season been completed, according to Financial World, gate receipts would have accounted for some $26.6 million per team–about 44 percent of total revenue. Even a 10 percent decline in attendance, therefore, would cost each club almost $2.7 million–probably enough to affect both front office and player salaries.
