There are all kinds of reasons to believe the Bears can’t win three straight games.
And precious few to think they can salvage one of the NFC’s three wild-card playoff spots.
“Green Bay was 6-7 last year at this point, won their last three and got in the playoffs,” coach Dave Wannstedt noted, taking inspiration and solace where he can, even from the enemy.
The Bears (7-6) aren’t the Packers, illustrated again in two losses to Green Bay earlier this season. The Packers outscored opponents 95-39 to win the final three games of 1994, including 40-3 over Chicago.
To the Bears’ defense, 39 points is a day’s work.
The case against the playoffs is prohibitive, the blood evidence overwhelming to support the contention that the Bears, toasts of the town just over a month ago with a 6-2 record, are now burnt toast by losing five of their last six games.
To start with, the organization hasn’t won a regular-season December game on the road in eight years, a streak of 15 straight losses. One final chance this year to make it a sour 16 comes in Cincinnati Sunday afternoon.
In three years, Wannstedt’s Bears are 0-5 on the road in December and 2-7 in all games during this cruelest of months.
Argumentative, Wannstedt may contend. But can the Bears win more December games this year than they did in eight chances the last two seasons?
Furthermore, the Bears’ leading ground gainer three of the last four games was ruled out for the season Tuesday. Robert Green’s reported sprained left ankle in Monday’s 27-7 trashing in Detroit was upgraded to broken leg. Green has been the Bears’ third-down back, their fallback outlet when Rashaan Salaam has problems.
Green’s loss follows by a week the news that fullback Raymont Harris wouldn’t return this year from a broken collarbone suffered in the opener. The offense that has been the heart of the club could be devastated by two more blows to its fragile depth.
Curtis Conway’s great season has hit a speed bump as well. Not only hasn’t he added to his 12 touchdowns in the last three games, but he has rather slim receiving totals–eight catches, 101 yards.
In the suddenly wild and woolly NFC Central, that is far too little to make much of a difference.
Conway, Jeff Graham and quarterback Erik Kramer will be upbeat about facing a Bengals pass defense that ranks 29th in the NFL, even worse than the Bears (28th), and a Tampa Bay pass defense in the next game that is ranked 24th.
But then, the Lions’ pass defense ranks 25th and it had no problem holding the Bears to 140 gross passing yards, lowest of the year.
What’s worse, these are all deficiencies pertaining to the sunny side of the Bears.
Now we come to the dark knights of this picture–the defense, the real reason not to harbor hope. In the last five games, the Bears’ defense has given up an average of 383.6 yards.
Opponents have converted 35 of 65 third downs. They are keeping pace with the disaster of permitting a 49.7 conversion rate for the season (88 for 177).
After four straight games of limiting teams to 85 rushing yards or less, the Bears have given up more than 100 rushing yards in the last three games. That’s the Barry Sanders factor, Wannstedt can argue.
Doesn’t Emmitt Smith still play for the Dallas Cowboys, the team to beat in the NFC playoffs? And isn’t that the Eagles’ Ricky Watters, third in the NFC in rushing, and the Buccaneers’ Errict Rhett sitting fifth? The Bears still must face both of them.
“The key is to get in (the playoffs),” Wannstedt reminded everyone about the task before his team. “If you do, anything can happen.”
Such as last year, when the Bears upset Minnesota in the first round and fooled themselves into believing it meant something. The Vikings have become their favorite patsy.
“It’s hard to explain, but I still believe we can do it,” safety Marty Carter said. “If it hadn’t been for beating Minnesota 14-6, going into Tampa Bay and dominating them there, doing some of the things we’ve done as a defense.”
“I think we’ve got the personnel, if we can just come together now when we need to. We work every week just as hard whether we lose or not. So I think the playoffs are still possible.”
With no pass rush. With no defensive secondary. With no takeaways of late.
With cornerback Donnell Woolford perhaps out for the season with a partially torn hip tendon, joining Harris and Green in sick bay.
“As tough as it’s going to be, three wins gives us 10 and that’d put us in a position to get in the playoffs,” Wannstedt said. “Whether nine wins would or not, I don’t know, because of what’s happened to us with the division.”
To get just those two victories would mean the first time a Bears team had won a pair in December since 1991.
In an odd season, the odds are against the Bears from here on out. Not an impossible dream, just an impractical one.
3 WINS STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH
The Bears are in such trouble on tiebreakers that not even a 10-6 record would guarantee them a wild-card playoff berth. And a 9-7 record, often good enough to make the playoffs, probably won’t be this season.
Since the NFL playoffs expanded to 12 teams in 1990, 13 of 15 teams that finished 10-6 have made the playoffs (only the 1991 Eagles and 49ers missed), and 11 of 19 teams that went 9-7 made it.
But the Bears lose tiebreakers involving two other 7-6 teams (Detroit and St. Louis) on head-to-head losses. They have the tiebreaker on one 7-6 team, Minnesota, which they beat twice.
They don’t play Atlanta, but would have to finish with a better conference record because the Falcons have clinched the common-games tiebreaker. The Bears are 5-5 in NFC play with games remaining against Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. The Falcons are 5-4, with New Orleans, Carolina and San Francisco left to play.
Philadelphia (8-5), which leads the wild-card race, plays the Bears at Soldier Field on Dec. 24, the final Sunday of the regular season.
Dallas (10-3), San Francisco (9-4) and Green Bay (9-4) lead their divisions.
