For those who think Cleveland is a mortal lock to win its second straight American League pennant, a flashback to 1984 may be in order.
Recall that the White Sox were coming off a season in which they flattened all comers, winning their division by 20 games with one of the top rotations in the game. When they added Tom Seaver to the mix in ’84, the prognosticators said it was all but a done deal. The Sox were seemingly Series-bound at last.
But when all was said and done, the ’84 Sox finished a sorry fourth, winding up 14 games under .500 despite having a rotation to die for. Now it’s Cleveland in the ’84 Sox’s shoes. The Indians won the Central Division by 30 games, lost in the World Series and then added former Cy Young winner Jack McDowell to the staff.
So are the wheels greased for another Indians’ runaway or will too many gourmet cooks spoil the broth at Jacobs Field?
The Indians are certain to hog the spotlight in ’96, though several other intriguing storylines bear watching in the American League. Dwight Gooden will begin his comeback with the Yankees, Roberto Alomar will team up with Cal Ripken Jr. to create a peerless double-play combo in Baltimore, the California Angels will try to forget about their free-fall of a lifetime and Ken Griffey Jr. will try to prove he’s worth every penny of his $34 million contract.
Baltimore and the Yankees shelled out big bucks to keep up with the Indians, Seattle dumped salaries to reward Griffey, and the White Sox rehabbed their entire outfield.
Can any of these likely contenders catch the Indians?
Not likely. But as the ’84 Sox confirmed, in baseball there’s no such thing as a sure thing.
EAST
Boston Red Sox
– Spring home: Ft. Myers, Fla.
– Key additions: C Mike Stanley, IF Wil Cordero, RP Heathcliff Slocumb, P Tom Gordon and P Jamie Moyer.
– Key losses: RP Rick Aguilera, RP Rheal Cormier, P Erik Hanson and C Mike Macfarlane.
– Spring goals: Try to find a position for Cordero, who probably won’t supplant John Valentin at short or Tim Naehring at third. Jose Canseco wants to try playing the outfield again to reach incentive clauses. Yikes!
– 1996 prognosis: Red Sox haven’t finished first in two consecutive seasons since 1915-16. The Curse of the Bambino will strike again. Look for Tim Wakefield’s knuckleball to un-knuckle come April. And after a brutal second-half in Philadelphia, is Slocumb really the answer in the Red Sox bullpen?
New York Yankees
– Spring home: Tampa
– Key additions: Mgr. Joe Torre, 1B Tino Martinez, LF Tim Raines, C Joe Girardi, P Kenny Rogers and RP Jeff Nelson.
– Key losses: Mgr. Buck Showalter, 1B Don Mattingly, IF Randy Velarde, P Jack McDowell and P Sterling Hitchcock.
– Spring goals: Comebacks from Jimmy Key (shoulder) and Doc Gooden (drug suspension) will be scrutinized. Derek Jeter gets a chance to be regular shortstop. Will Wade Boggs emerge as Yanks’ team leader with Mattingly out the door?
– 1996 prognosis: Loss of McDowell was offset by the signing of Rogers and Tino Martinez a vast improvement over the aging Mattingly. Yankees underachieved in ’95 and still made the playoffs as a wild-card entry. If Torre can’t get this team in the playoffs, he’ll probably be gone by ’97.
Baltimore Orioles
– Spring home: Ft. Lauderdale
– Key additions: Mgr. Davey Johnson, OF Mike Devereaux, 2B Roberto Alomar, RP Randy Myers, P Kent Mercker, P David Wells and 3B-C B.J. Surhoff.
– Key losses: Mgr Phil Regan, DH Harold Baines, OF Curtis Goodwin, P Ben McDonald, P Kevin Brown and RP Doug Jones.
– Spring goals: Biggest question for Johnson and new pitching coach Pat Dobson may be whether it’s Scott Erickson, Wells or Mercker who follows Mike Mussina in the rotation. GM Pat Gillick admirably filled in all the holes ths winter, with Alomar the biggest free agent prize.
– 1996 prognosis: The Beatles told us money can’t buy love, but can it buy a World Series title? Peter Angelos obviously thinks so. Baltimore rates as AL East favorite, though fellow owners are hoping for an Orioles flop to teach Angelos a lesson.
Detroit Tigers
– Spring home: Lakeland, Fla.
– Key additions: Mgr. Buddy Bell, OF Phil Plantier and C Mark Parent.
– Key loss: Mgr. Sparky Anderson.
– Spring goals: The post-Sparky Era begins with the Buddy System put in its place. Bell inherits a team with the worst hitting (.247) and second-worst pitching (5.49 ERA) in the AL. As usual, don’t expect miracles.
– 1996 prognosis: The only reason to go out and watch this anonymous bunch play is to savor the unique atmosphere of Tiger Stadium, currently on Death Row with a new ballpark on the horizon. The Tigers will try to dump Cecil Fielder’s huge salary on a contending team sometime after the All-Star break. Will anyone bite?
Toronto Blue Jays
– Spring home: Dunedin, Fla.
– Key additions: CF Otis Nixon, P Erik Hanson, C Charlie O’Brien and RP Bill Risley.
– Key losses: 2B Roberto Alomar, CF Devon White, DH Paul Molitor and P Al Leiter.
– Spring goals: Convince fans that Otis Nixon is the answer to the Jays problems. Cito Gaston has virtually no chance with this stripped-down model and may be the next one to escape SkyDome.
– 1996 prognosis: The downward spiral continues. Despite an owner with deep pockets, the Blue Jays are holding the line on spending after years of being overly generous. It already has started to show. How many more chances will the Jays give Juan Guzman (4-14, 6.32 ERA) before they realize his arm is dead?
CENTRAL
Cleveland Indians
– Spring home: Winter Haven, Fla.
– Key additions: P Jack McDowell and DH Julio Franco.
– Key losses: DH Paul Sorrento and P Ken Hill.
– Spring goals: Make sure all the jewelry is safely locked up during exhibition games. Keep Albert Belle’s bats from being sawed in half. Avoid the media at all costs.
– 1996 prognosis: Indians should return to the World Series and get it right this time. Only injuries, out-of-control egos or postseason overmanaging by Mike Hargrove can stop them. The worst thing that happened to AL teams was when the Indians combined to hit .179 against Atlanta in the World Series. They’re back, they’re bitter and they’re ready to run over opposing teams like Albert Belle chasing trick-or-treaters.
Kansas City Royals
– Spring home: Baseball City, Fla.
– Key additions: P Tim Belcher, C Mike Macfarlane, SS Jose Offerman and OF Bip Roberts.
– Key losses: 3B Gary Gaetti, 1B Wally Joyner and P Tom Gordon.
– Spring goals: Find out whether Bob Hamelin was a rookie-of-the-year fluke or if he can become a consistent hitter. Figure out how to replace Gaetti’s 35 homers. Pray neither Kevin Appier nor Mark Gubicza gets hurt.
– 1996 prognosis: Better than expected in ’95, but did nothing to improve itself. Royals are a case study of the small-market blues. No stars. No crowds. No interest.
White Sox
– Spring home: Sarasota, Fla.
– Key additions: OF-IF Tony Phillips, DH Harold Baines, RF Danny Tartabull, P Kevin Tapani and CF Darren Lewis.
– Key losses: Cf Lance Johnson, LF Tim Raines, C Mike LaValliere and P Scott Radinsky.
– Spring goals: See if promising rookie right-hander Luis Andujar is the real deal and can move into the rotation for keeps. Keep Danny Tartabull healthy. Camp Bevington will stress improved defense and starting pitching.
1996 prognosis: Revamped lineup should produce enough runs to take pressure off starters Jason Bere and Wilson Alvarez, the two keys to a Sox resurgence. Roberto Hernandez better stop throwing late-inning gopher balls as well. Catching Cleveland is a longshot, but wild-card possibility is good. It couldn’t get any worse than ’95, right?
Milwaukee Brewers
– Spring home: Chandler, Ariz.
– Key additions: P Ben McDonald and OF Chuck Carr.
– Key losses: CF Darryl Hamilton, all-purpose B.J. Surhoff.
– Spring goals: Brewers were in wild-card hunt most of last year, before eventually succumbing because of inferior talent. Greg Vaughn recovery a must. Manager Phil Garner will have to do it with mirrors all over again, with few All-Star caliber players.
– 1996 prognosis: There will be no joy in Cheeseland this year, though the absence of Rob Dibble should help the bullpen immensely. Don’t be surprised if some more shenanigans transpire during the Brewers-White Sox games, since Garner and Terry Bevington are still not pen pals.
Minnesota Twins
– Spring home: Ft. Myers, Fla.
– Key additions: DH Paul Molitor, P Rick Aguilera, C Greg Myers and 3B Dave Hollins.
– Key losses: None.
– Spring goals: Aguilera reverts to starting role for first time since Tom Kelly converted him into a successful closer in 1990. Aging Molitor hoping to bounce back from sub-par ’95 (.270) while helping Kirby Puckett teach a young team the ropes.
– 1996 prognosis: Still have one of the worst pitching staffs (5.76 ERA) in recent memory, and should be out of contention by late June. All that, plus a really ugly dome. But with talented kids like Marty Cordova, Rich Becker and Scott Stahoviak on the roster, the Twins could emerge with a team to watch by ’97 or ’98.
WEST
Seattle Mariners
– Spring home: Chandler, Ariz.
– Key additions: P Sterling Hitchcock, 3B Russ Davis and 1B Paul Sorrento.
– Key losses: 1B Tino Martinez, P Andy Benes, P Tim Belcher, RP Jeff Nelson, RP Bill Risley and LF Vince Coleman.
– Spring goals: Adjustments must be made without Tino Martinez and Coleman in the lineup, but crafty Mariners manager Lou Piniella will find a way. Remember, he sent unknown Bobby Wolcott against Cleveland in the ALCS and came out a winner.
– 1996 prognosis: Ken Griffey Jr., Randy Johnson, Edgar Martinez and Jay Buhner are reasons No. 1-4 why the Mariners will repeat. Should be nearly unbeatable in the so-called “NoiseDome” if Mariners Fever was a true epidemic and not just another trendy Seattle fad. Look for Griffey to cop his first MVP award and show his $34 million contract was justified.
California Angels
– Spring home: Tempe, Ariz.
– Key additions: IF Randy Velarde and 3B Tim Wallach.
– Key loss: IF-OF Tony Phillips.
– Spring goals: Try not to get too bothered by unending questions about their classic 1995 collapse. Troy Percival begins stint as temporary closer with Lee Smith on disabled list after off-season hunting accident.
– 1996 prognosis: Despite loss of the fiery Phillips, Angels should contend for West title and/or wild-card spot. There’s plenty of young talent (Jim Edmonds, Tim Salmon and Garret Anderson), three solid lefties (Jim Abbott, Mark Langston and Chuck Finley) and a closer with a 100 mph fastball. But the ’69 Cubs never completely recovered. Will the ’95 Angels? Gene Autry isn’t getting any younger.
Texas Rangers
– Spring home: Port Charlotte, Fla.
– Key additions: P Ken Hill, CF Darryl Hamilton and OF Warren Newson.
– Key losses: P Kenny Rogers, CF Otis Nixon and RP Roger McDowell.
– Spring goals: Get Dean Palmer and Juan Gonzalez healthy and back to their old form, which would give the Rangers an enviable power trio (along with Mickey Tettleton). Can Hill, Bobby Witt or Roger Pavlik emerge as the new ace to replace Rogers?
– 1996 prognosis: Typical Texas Rangers season–big start followed by mid-summer meltdown when the temps hover near 100. Mediocre bullpen and lack of quality closer should bring down a strong-hitting club. Rangers made a statement to their fans when they opted not to try and re-sign Rogers, one of the league’s top lefties. Watch attendance fizzle in ’96.
Oakland Athletics
– Spring home: Phoenix
– Key addition: Mgr. Art Howe.
– Key losses: Mgr. Tony La Russa, LF Rickey Henderson, CF Stan Javier, RF Danny Tartabull, SS Mike Gallego, P Todd Stottlemyre and P Steve Ontiveros.
– Spring goals: Cost conscious A’s unloaded their entire outfield and several other veterans under new owners Steve Schott and Ken Hofmann. This figures to be a period where the players and new manager simply get acquainted with each other.
– 1996 prognosis: Bleak. Injury-prone Mark McGwire hit 39 homers in only 317 at-bats, a pace that would net him 62 homers in a typical season of 500 at-bats. But with the A’s stripped bare and La Russa gone, look for McGwire to continue his assault on the all-time disabled list record. With no pitching to speak of, a no-name outfield and a new manager, this is a team with “basement” written all over it.
