I can’t get a break. Last year, in celebration of the 25th anniversary of the Beat Siskel Oscar-guessing contest, I went a perfect 5-for-5 predicting the top Academy Awards. So what does my newspaper do? Give me a year off? Hardly. It’s putting this year’s contest on the World Wide Web! Gee, now I can risk humiliating myself in Kuala Lumpur.
And this is the perfect time to do it, because not one expert I’ve talked to about this year’s awards has a clue as to which film will be named Best Picture. Usually, I have conflicting opinions,” said one of my three wise men and one wise woman, but this year I don’t even have an opinion.” Same for me, but I have to pretend I have one.
For those of you new to the contest across the globe and how are things in Glocca Morra?-your assignment is to outguess me in selecting the winners of the four acting categories and best picture. We also have a tie-breaker question: Which film will win the most Oscars and how many? I don’t answer that one, so you can make your predictions the same as mine and still Beat Siskel. My track record over a quarter-century? Holding steady at about 80 percent correct.
And now the envelopes, please.
BEST PICTURE
Does anyone have a dart? How about some chicken bones? Seriously, I don’t know what’s going to happen here because I don’t think there’s a nominated picture that academy members are truly passionate about. If Apollo 13″ had been released in December, rather than June, I think it would have swept the field in a jingoistic, pre-election fever. But it’s a long, long way from June to December.
OK, I’m stalling. Let’s start by eliminating the unlikely choices. Hmmmm. OK, let’s start alphabetically. In addition to having peaked too early, Apollo 13″ may be thought of as more of a technical achievement than anything else, which explains Ron Howard winning the television-dominated Director’s Guild of America prize but not even being nominated by the film director’s branch of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Babe” doesn’t have the gravitas associated with a Best Picture-it’s about a pig, not Gandhi. Braveheart” is an action picture, and if it were to win a top award, it most likely would to go to Mel Gibson as Best Director. The Postman” is Italian, and foreign-language films don’t win the big prize. Sense and Sensibility” isn’t as lively as Howards End” or The Remains of the Day,” and even those British masterpieces didn’t win.
So, a five-way tie? Don’t laugh. There’s never been a tie in this category, but this could be the year. You read it here first. Of this much I’m certain: Fifty votes won’t separate the winner from the runner-up.
So, what do we have here? Two historical epics, two features and a British jewel.
How about one from Column A and one from Column B? Apollo 13″ and The Postman” will tie. A longshot pick in an impossible year to predict.
BEST ACTOR
Nicolas Cage should win for his portrait of a suicidal alcoholic strangely at peace with himself in Leaving Las Vegas.” It’s a serious role with much angst, which always catches the academy’s eye. And Cage, even at age 32, may have achieved the requisite veteran status that often triggers an award by appearing in at least two pictures a year for the last half-dozen years.
Now, if there is an upset-and I don’t think there will be-the wild card could be Richard Dreyfuss as the beloved music teacher in Mr. Holland’s Opus.” Entering its third month of release, it’s still red-hot at the box office. It’s a lump-in-the-throat role, too, in part because Dreyfuss, a winner in this category 18 years ago for The Goodbye Girl,” has made a personal odyssey through drug addiction back to the center ring. If Leaving Las Vegas” has not been seen by many voters because they heard it was too downbeat, then Dreyfuss could shock the film world.
Sean Penn delivered a brilliant performance, mostly through medium closeups, as a death row inmate in Dead Man Walking,” but the character he played is perceived by Hollywood’s old guard as only slightly more repellent than Penn himself.
Anthony Hopkins was superb once again with his impressionistic portrait of Nixon,” but he’s won recently, and Nixon” is loathed in Hollywood because it bombed at the box office and because it was directed by ego-tripping Oliver Stone.
The Italian actor Massimo Troisi, who played the gentle title character in The Postman,” died at age 41 just hours after completing filming. His nomination is tribute both to the film and to his dedication. But academy voters can’t be sure how much of a performance he really gave, because they’re not familiar with his other work.
So the winner will be Nicolas Cage, a wonderful, risk-taking actor with a great range (from Wild at Heart” to It Could Happen to You”).
”BEST ACTRESS
This one is pretty easy, too. Susan Sarandon will win for playing a nun with a compassionate heart in Dead Man Walking.” Sarandon is beloved by her actor colleagues, who make up one-quarter of the academy’s 5,043 voting members. This is her fifth nomination; she’s never won, and so the time is right. Most academy voters would never want to get near a maximum-security prison like Sarandon’s death row counselor character; voting for her allows them to do community service without ever leaving Beverly Hills 90210.
The others? Emma Thompson is likely to win the award for adapted screenplay for Sense and Sensibility”; two Oscars in the same year would be absurd. Elisabeth Shue’s chance to win for her superb performance as a prostitute in Leaving Las Vegas” is crippled by Nicolas Cage’s likely win. Sharon Stone’s role in Casino” was not that difficult to play. And Meryl Streep, who deserves to win for her lonely Iowa housewife role in The Bridges of Madison County,” will be denied because of the film’s May release date and because she already has two trophies.
Susan Sarandon wins easily.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tough, tough, tough. The only nominee I can eliminate is Tim Roth, who created a terrific villain in Rob Roy.” Unfortunately, the medieval action in Braveheart” will make voters forget his brilliant sword fight in Rob Roy.”
The rest of the crowd has strengths and weaknesses. Brad Pitt is a very big star, but his best work was not in 12 Monkeys.” Ed Harris was yeoman-like in Apollo 13,” but the role wasn’t flashy enough to bring a win. James Cromwell was triumphant as the loyal farmer in Babe,” but he’s the least-known nominee. I keep hearing good things from Hollywood sources about Kevin Spacey’s chances for The Usual Suspects,” in part because he also was good in a similarly malevolent supporting role in Seven.” But he’s basically a New York stage actor.
Spacey. . . Cromwell . . . Spacey. . . Cromwell.
I’m predicting Spacey because he had 10 times as many lines of dialogue as Cromwell. But if Cromwell were to win, it could be a great Oscar moment, because he’ll probably dance the same jig he danced in Babe.”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Tough, tough,tough. The-horse race. Mare Winningham can’t win for her sober sister role in Georgia”; I’m amazed her fine work was even noticed. Kathleen Quinlan was generically apprehensive in Apollo 13.”
Kate Winslet may not have the necessary name recognition to win for playing a broken heart in Sense and Sensibility.” But she did win the Screen Actors Guild award in this category. I thought her performance blended into the scenery.
I think the choice is between Mira Sorvino’s big, squeaky, dumb blond hooker role in Woody Allen’s Mighty Aphrodite” and Joan Allen’s WASP-perfect impersonation of a bitter First Lady in Nixon.” If excellence were the only criterion, Joan Allen would win in a landslide. But Nixon” is loathed (see Anthony Hopkins’ chances as Best Actor). And Sorvino has name recognition because of her father, actor Paul Sorvino.
Allen . . . Sorvino . . . Allen. . . Sorvino.
I may regret this, but I’m predicting that the academy will reward quality over flash. Joan Allen will win.
You disagree? Of course. That’s why we hold the contest each year. Just fill out the entry blank, or see the electronic-filing box in this layout, submit your entry by March 25, and you could be a winner. And beginning this year, your fame will float in cyberspace.
THE PRIZE for this year’s Beat Siskel contest includes air transportation for two from Chicago to Los Angeles (Hollywood), courtesy of American Airlines. Plus two nights hotel accommodations and passes to the Universal Studios Hollywood Theme Park and ground transportation. The winner also will receive a Hollywood Casino Night Out worth more than $500, provided by the casino in Aurora, Ill. Total value of the prize package is approximately $3,000.
ENTER THE Beat Siskel contest using the paper ballot in this layout, or you may also send your entry through electronic mail in several forms. On America Online, go to keyword:TribQuiz on Chicago Online for an interactive version of the contest. Or, submit your interactive entry on the World Wide Web at
http.//www.chicago.tribune.com/estra/oscars/oscars.htm
(no attached files, please).
BEAT SISKEL: THE CHOICES
Here are the Academy Award nominees for the five categories of this year’s Beat Siskel contest:
Picture
Apollo 13″
Babe”
Braveheart”
The Postman”
Sense and Sensibility”
Actor
Nicolas Cage (Leaving Las Vegas”)
Richard Dreyfuss (Mr. Holland’s Opus”)
Anthony Hopkins (Nixon”)
Sean Penn (Dead Man Walking”)
Massimo Troisi (The Postman”)
Actress
Susan Sarandon (Dead Man Walking”)
Elisabeth Shue (Leaving Las Vegas”)
Sharon Stone (Casino”)
Meryl Streep (The Bridges of Madison County”)
Emma Thompson (Sense and Sensibility”)
Supporting Actor
James Cromwell (Babe”)
Ed Harris (Apollo 13″)
Brad Pitt (12 Monkeys”)
Tim Roth (Rob Roy”)
Supporting Actress
Joan Allen (Nixon”)
Kathleen Quinlan (Apollo 13″)
Mira Sorvino (Mighty Aphrodite”)
Mare Winningham (Georgia”)
Kate Winslet (Sense and Sensibility”)
Nominations list A.M.P.A.S.
BEAT SISKEL: THE RULES
If you think you can pick more Academy Award winners than Gene Siskel, fill in this entry blank, attach it to a postcard or the back of an envelope (use tape or glue; do not use staples) and mail it to: Beat Siskel, P.O. Box 7523, Chicago, Ill. 60680-7523. You may also enter by printing your answers on a postcard or the back of an envelope. NOTE: ENTRY BLANKS ENCLOSED IN ENVELOPES WILL NOT BE ELIGIBLE. (No purchase required.) You may also send your entry through electronic mail in several forms. On America Online, submit to keyword: TribQuiz on Chicago Online. Or, submit your entry on the World Wide Web at
http://www.chicago.tribune.com/extra/oscars/oscars.htm (no attached files, please).
Entries must be received by noon March 25, the day of the Oscar presentations. The entry with the most correct answers will win our prize. Only one prize will be awarded, so please note our tie-breaker question, which asks you to predict the film that will win the most Oscars and how many it will win. If a tie still remains, the winner will be chosen by a drawing.
The contest begins Friday, March 8, 1996. All paper entries must be submitted by U.S. mail. Only one entry per person, and you must enter in your own name. No private-postage-metered entries will be accepted. The winner will be announced in the March 29 issue of Friday and posted online at that date.
The Chicago Tribune will not be responsible for entries lost or delayed in delivery and reserves the right to disqualify any mutilated, altered or illegible entry, or entries that do not comply with these rules.
The winner agrees to allow the use of his or her name and picture by the Chicago Tribune for publicity purposes.
The contest is subject to all federal, state and local laws, and is void where prohibited by law. The winner also assumes any tax liability for the contest prize. Chicago Tribune employees and their families are not eligible.
The Chicago Tribune will examine entries to determine which entry is the winner. By entering this contest, all entrants agree that the Chicago Tribune has the sole right to decide all matters to disputes arising from the contest and that the Chicago Tribune’s determination of the winning entry shall be final and binding.
No entries will be returned. All become the property of the Chicago Tribune.
In fairness to all, the Chicago Tribune cannot discuss this contest by phone, mail or in any other way with contestants.
Copies of the Chicago Tribune are available at the Chicago Public Library.
This contest is being conducted with the permission of, but is not affiliated with, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
BEAT SISKEL ENTRY FORM
BEST PICTURE——————————————————
BEST ACTOR——————————————————–
BEST ACTRESS——————————————————
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR———————————————
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS——————————————-
FILM WINNING MOST OSCARS——————————————
AND HOW MANY——————————————————
Note: Braveheart” received 10 nominations, Apollo 13″ got 9, Babe” and Sense and Sensibility” 7 each, and The Postman (Il Postino)” got 5. Also, Dead Man Walking,” Leaving Las Vegas” and Nixon” got 4 nominations each.
Your name——————————————————–
Address———————————————————-
City, State, ZIP————————————————-
Phone————————————————————
Mail to Beat Siskel, P.O. Box 7523, Chicago, Ill. 60680-7523 or send through electronic mail to TribQuiz on Chicago Online or
http://www.chicago.tribune.com/extra/oscars/oscars.htm (no attached files, please).
