Cincinnati Reds (85-59, 1st)
Manager: Ray Knight.
Outlook: No true cleanup hitter, though outfielder Reggie Sanders is close with 30-homers/30-steals potential. Lots of talents, but lots of questions too. For example: What happens if rookie manager Knight bombs? Or the bullpen, now without injured closer Jeff Brantley out until May, is ineffective? Or owner Marge Schott gets cranky?
Recipe for disaster: Brantley fill-in Hector Carrasco, a disappointment in spring, is unable to close games. Hyper-intense Knight forgets to take Schottzie II puppy downer.
Projected Opening Day lineup: Vince Coleman, LF; Mike Kelly, CF; Barry Larkin, SS; Reggie Sanders, RF; Hal Morris, 1B; Bret Boone, 2B; Ed Taubensee, C; Jeff Branson/Chris Sabo, 3B; Pete Schourek, SP.
Houston Astros (76-68, 2nd)
Manager: Terry Collins.
Outlook: The lineup is built for runs, especially if first baseman Jeff Bagwell can get through a season without another pitch breaking his left hand. Hard to find a better 2-3-4 punch than Craig Biggio, Bagwell and Derek Bell, but can leadoff man Brian Hunter finally keep his job for an entire season?
Recipe for disaster: Closer John Hudek is hurting and the starting rotation is as suspect as a Dennis Rodman public apology. If Darryl Kile doesn’t reverse his 4-12 record of a season ago, the Astros go plop.
Projected lineup: Brian Hunter, CF; Craig Biggio, 2B; Jeff Bagwell, 1B; Derek Bell, RF; James Mouton, LF; Sean Berry, 3B; Tony Eusebio, C; Orlando Miller, SS; Doug Drabek, SP.
Cubs (73-71, 3rd)
Manager: Jim Riggleman.
Outlook: Better than you might think. The Cubs have zilch margin for error, which means they can’t afford any major injuries. But Ryne Sandberg looked–repeat after us–“comfortable and natural” (his favorite description) during spring training. Sammy Sosa says a 40-40 year is possible and Mark Grace has a swing and a glove for the ages. The rotation has potential and the bullpen is surprisingly OK.
Recipe for disaster: Rey Sanchez doesn’t improve his on-base percentage, Sandberg and closer Doug Jones flop, and the threesome of Kevin Foster, Jim Bullinger and Steve Trachsel don’t do better than combined 31-32 of a season ago.
Projected lineup: Brian McRae, CF; Ryne Sandberg, 2B; Mark Grace, 1B; Sammy Sosa, RF; Luis Gonzalez, LF; Scott Servais, C; Leo Gomez/Jose Hernandez, 3B; Rey Sanchez, SS; Jaime Navarro, SP.
St. Louis Cardinals (62-81, 4th)
Manager: Tony La Russa.
Outlook: The Cardinals’ new owners spent $44 million on new talent, which won’t mean a thing if the old talent doesn’t contribute. Ron Gant and Royce Clayton are getting lots of attention, but the keys might be holdovers Ray Lankford and Brian Jordan, and finding a second baseman. By the way, the best Benes in the rotation might be rookie Alan, not veteran Andy.
Recipe for disaster: The Clayton-Ozzie Smith controversy refuses to die. Catcher Tom Pagnozzi can’t stay healthy–again. And does anybody really expect Gary Gaetti to put up another 35-homer, 96-RBI season? Another oldie goldie, closer Dennis Eckersley, blew nine saves last year and looked his age–41.
Projected lineup: Luis Alicea, 2B; John Mabry, 1B; Ray Lankford, CF; Ron Gant, LF; Brian Jordan, RF; Gary Gaetti, 3B; Royce Clayton, SS; Tom Pagnozzi, C; Andy Benes, SP.
Pittsburgh Pirates (58-86, 5th)
Manager: Jim Leyland.
Outlook: When would a 70-win season be considered a success? When the 70 victories belong to the Pirates, whom new owner Kevin McClatchy swears are only two years away from the playoffs. Go ahead and dream, because this season is going to be another grind for manager Jim Leyland. The lineup is presentable, but the pitching staff, with the exception of Denny Neagle, needs some help.
Recipe for disaster: Face it, the Pirates are destined for last place in the division–no matter what Leyland does. Leyland has vowed to make them competitive in 1996. We’ll see.
Projected lineup: Mike Kingery, CF; Jay Bell, SS; Al Martin, LF; Jeff King, 1B; Orlando Merced, RF; Charlie Hayes, 3B; Carlos Garcia, 2B; Jason Kendall, C; Denny Neagle, SP.
NL EAST
Atlanta Braves (90-54, 1st)
Manager: Bobby Cox.
Outlook: Hard to find a soft spot on this roster. The rotation is golden now that Jason Schmidt has nailed down the No. 5 starter job. Greg Maddux goes for his fifth consecutive Cy Young (sorry, Larry Himes) and Mark Wohlers, the hardest-throwing reliever in the league, goes for the saves lead. Hello, pennant.
Recipe for disaster: Aside from, say, a minor van crash that injures the starting rotation, the Braves are unlikely to fold. Keep an eye on Jeff Blauser as he tries to rebound from a subpar offensive year. And see how the Braves respond to a 17-game road trip in mid-July.
Projected lineup: Marquis Grissom, CF; Mark Lemke, 2B; Mike Mordecai, 3B; Fred McGriff, 1B; David Justice, RF; Ryan Klesko, LF; Javier Lopez, C; Jeff Blauser, SS; Greg Maddux, SP.
New York Mets (69-75, tie 2nd)
Manager: Dallas Green.
Outlook: Mets mania has hit New York, thanks to a fast finish in 1995 and a starting rotation with potential worthy of the Braves. And if you collect rookie cards, hold on tight to anything with shortstop Rey Ordonez’s photo on it. Ordonez is Ozzie Smith Jr.
Recipe for disaster: Left-hander Bill Pulsipher is hurt, as is first baseman Rico Brogna. Brogna is the closest thing the Mets have to a power hitter and Pulsipher is No. 2 in the rotation, so their absences will be felt hard. They won’t be out long, but you’ll discover quickly enough how fragile the Mets’ lineup can be.
Projected lineup: Lance Johnson, CF; Bernard Gilkey, LF; Butch Huskey, 1B; Jeff Kent, 3B; Carl Everett, RF; Todd Hundley, C; Jose Vizcaino, 2B; Rey Ordonez, SS; Jason Isringhausen, SP.
Philadelphia Phillies (69-75, tie 2nd)
Manager: Jim Fregosi.
Outlook: The Phillies have gone through 12 Opening Day left-fielders in the last 12 years. Darren Daulton, the late, great catcher, will be No. 13. So what if it will be an adventure on every liner hit to left? If Dutch can chip in 100 RBIs, nobody is going to sweat the errors. The Phillies have talent, but they also have a history of injuries.
Recipe for disaster: Our condolences to manager Jim Fregosi if Daulton or Lenny Dykstra get hurt, or if Ricky Bottalico can’t replace closer Heathcliff Slocumb.
Projected lineup: Lenny Dykstra, CF; Mickey Morandini, 2B; Gregg Jefferies, 1B; Darren Daulton, LF; Todd Zeile, 3B; Mark Whiten, RF; Benito Santiago, C; Kevin Stocker, SS; Sid Fernandez, SP.
Florida Marlins (67-76, 4th)
Manager: Rene Lachemann.
Outlook: Rosy. The Marlins helped themselves where they needed it most by getting starters Kevin Brown, Al Leiter and Cuban whiz kid Livan Hernandez. They also signed Devon White, the best defensive center-fielder in either league. Right-fielder Gary Sheffield is poised for a monster season.
Recipe for disaster: The Marlins are a little like the Cardinals–lots of new faces in important places. If manager Rene Lachemann can’t get the pieces to fit, the Marlins could struggle.
Projected lineup: Quilvio Veras, 2B; Devon White, CF; Gary Sheffield, RF; Jeff Conine, LF; Terry Pendleton, 3B; Greg Colbrunn, 1B; Charles Johnson, C; Kurt Abbott, SS; Kevin Brown, SP.
Montreal Expos (66-78, 5th)
Manager: Felipe Alou.
Outlook: Never underestimate manager Felipe Alou’s ability to do the near-impossible. If he can keep the Expos in contention for a wild-card spot, he deserves some sort of Canadian heroism award. The Expos have some very good players, including Moises Alou, Rondell White, Pedro Martinez, Mel Rojas, Jeff Fassero and Dave Veres. If Cliff Floyd comes around, who knows?
Recipe for disaster: General Manager Jim Beattie is forced to put up the garage-sale sign. First to go: Fassero and his $2.8 million salary.
Projected lineup: Sherman Obando/Henry Rodriguez, RF; Mike Lansing, 2B; Rondell White, CF; Moises Alou, LF; David Segui, 1B; Darrin Fletcher, C; Shane Andrews, 3B; Mark Grudzielanek, SS; Pedro Martinez, SP.
NL WEST
Los Angeles Dodgers (78-66, 1st)
Manager: Tom Lasorda.
Outlook: If Tom Lasorda can’t win with this team, the Dodgers will have a new manager next season. There isn’t a left-hander in the rotation, but who cares when you have Ramon Martinez, Hideo Nomo, Ismael Valdes, Tom Candiotti and Pedro Astacio? The Dodgers also got rid of Jose Offerman and his league-high 35 errors for dependable Greg Gagne, who, at 34, becomes the oldest everyday shortstop in the NL.
Recipe for disaster: Nothing comes to mind, though you wonder if the Dodgers can afford another 7-14 season from Candiotti and another early-season hitting funk from Delino DeShields. Yeah, probably.
Projected lineup: Delino DeShields, 2B; Brett Butler, CF; Mike Piazza, C; Eric Karros, 1B; Raul Mondesi, RF; Mike Blowers, 3B; Todd Hollandsworth, LF; Greg Gagne, SS; Ramon Martinez, SP.
Colorado Rockies (77-67, 2nd)
Manager: Don Baylor.
Outlook: The Rockies have less pitching than a tee-ball team. Still, you have to respect a batting order that features Dante Bichette, Larry Walker, Andres Galarraga, Vinny Castilla and Eric Young. Together they hit about 1,000 home runs and, along with an ironman bullpen, were the main reason for the Rockies’ playoff visit last season. Can they do it again? Nope.
Recipe for disaster: Marvin Freeman becomes “ace” of the staff. That means Billy Swift and Bret Saberhagen never made it completely back from injuries.
Projected lineup: Pedro Castellano, 2B; Ellis Burks, LF; Dante Bichette, RF; Larry Walker, CF; Andres Galarraga, 1B; Vinny Castilla, 3B; Jayhawk Owens, C; Walt Weiss, SS; Kevin Ritz, SP.
San Diego Padres (70-74, 3rd)
Manager: Bruce Bochy.
Outlook: The Padres have some stability (Bochy recently signed a contract extension) and, for a pleasant change, they have some talent. A lot depends on 37-year-old Rickey Henderson, the Padres’ new leadoff man, and fellow newcomers Wally Joyner and Bob Tewksbury. Tony Gwynn will hit his usual amazing .360-something and Steve Finley and Ken Caminiti are coming into the prime of their careers. If the starting rotation produces, the Padres will challenge for a wild-card spot.
Recipe for disaster: Starter Scott Sanders breaks down again and Henderson grows bored.
Projected lineup: Rickey Henderson, LF; Steve Finley, CF; Tony Gwynn, RF; Ken Caminiti, 3B; Wally Joyner, 1B; Brad Ausmus, C; Jody Reed, 2B; Andujar Cedeno, SS; Andy Ashby, SP.
San Francisco Giants (67-77, 4th)
Manager: Dusty Baker.
Outlook: And a rookie shall lead them . . . or so the Giants hope. General Manager Bob Quinn guaranteed Cuban pitcher Osvaldo Fernandez $3.2 million for three years, but so far the reviews have been mixed, at best. If Fernandez blossoms once the regular season begins, the Giants might make a legitimate playoff run. Matt Williams is back from injury and Barry Bonds is in the best mental and physical shape of his career. Shawon Dunston and Mark Carreon will add to the bomber power of Williams and Bonds.
Recipe for disaster: Unless the entire pitching staff improves (Mark Leiter led the staff, and he went 10-12), the Giants are doomed. Robby Thompson has to have a bounce-back year.
Projected lineup: Stan Javier, CF; Robby Thompson, 2B; Barry Bonds, LF; Matt Williams, 3B; Mark Carreon, 1B; Glenallen Hill, RF; Shawon Dunston, SS; Kirt Manwaring, C; Mark Leiter, SP.
