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Who would bet on a horse that loses three-quarters of its races? Who would buy insurance from a company that denies three out of four claims? Who would send a child to swim in a river where three out of four children drown?

No one, you say. But experts say that nearly three out of four children (72 percent) killed in motor vehicles die only because they were riding unrestrained in the front seat in a crash.

Who wouldn’t give a child 72 percent odds to survive an automobile collision? Parents of almost half the children in the U.S. allow them to sit upfront unrestrained, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

The punch line of a very old joke identifies the most dangerous part of an automobile as “the nut behind the steering wheel.” When it comes to children riding in cars, that joke may have the somber ring of grim truth. If the driver won’t insist that a child sit in the back seat, strapped into a car seat or seat belt, who will?

That’s what policymakers, child safety seat manufacturers and automakers would like to know. They feel they are in a dead heat to protect the car’s littlest passengers. The experts agree even parents who do put a child in a safety seat or seat belt may be putting the child in danger–if the child is in the passenger seat of an air bag-equipped vehicle.

David Ladd, project manager for Siemens Automotive Corp., a manufacturer of automotive electrical and electronic systems and components such as air bags, says that within the last year, eight children were killed when air bags deployed in crashes.

Of those, six were sitting unrestrained in the passenger seat. Two were infants who suffered head injuries when the air bag struck their rear-facing child seat. While the NHTSA lauds air bags as safety devices for able-bodied adults, Ladd calls babies and air bags, “a lethal combination.”

“In the U.S. market, 30 percent of the vehicles on the road are light trucks that have no back seat,” says Ladd. The NHTSA estimates that by model year 1997 all

passenger cars, light trucks and vans will have dual air bags, well before federal requirements. (Dual bags are required in all cars by the 1998 model year and in light trucks and vans by 1999.) The bad news is there is no foolproof method of de-activating an air bag when the infant’s seat can be placed only on the passenger side.

The NHTSA has issued numerous consumer advisories. Child safety seat manufacturers’ directions prominently display the proper placement of infant seats. Carol Dingledy, spokeswoman for Columbus, Ind.-based juvenile products manufacturer Cosco, notes the warning in bold type on Page 2 of all their car-seat instructions. The Juvenile Products Manufacturers Association, a New Jersey-based trade association, publishes a warning, “Never use a rear-facing car seat in a seating location with an air bag!”

The NHTSA acknowledged the infant seat problem and relaxed their air-bag standard in mid-1995. They allowed automakers to install a manual front passenger-side air bag de-activating switch in vehicles with no other place for the infant seat, which Ford has done on its F-Series pickup trucks. The problem, says Ladd, is someone has to remember to do it. A more practical solution, he says, is an automatic systemsuch as the Siemens Automotive Child Seat Presence and Orientation Detection and Passenger Presence Detection system.

The Passenger Presence Detection system can detect an unoccupied passenger seat and de-activate the air bag. This will save replacement costs of $1,500 to $2,500 when an air bag is deployed into an unoccupied seat, Ladd says. The Child Seat Presence and Orientation Detection system is a new integrated system that can de-activate the passenger air bag when it detects the presence of a rear-facing child seat.

The child seat system will save baby’s lives. Ladd says the system has measured up to the automotive industry testing standards of 99.999 percent reliability for electronic systems.

The system operates via a pressure-sensitive foil installed beneath the car seat, with two antennae that send a signal to two resonators in the infant seat, Ladd says. He says the system, which is neither high-tech nor expensive, will cost the carmaker, “considerably less than $40. The resonators installed within the infant seat will add about $5 to $8 to the average $50 (infant car seat) price to the consumer.”

According to Ladd, the system will be available for 1997 model year American and European vehicles. He says Siemens has design and production contracts with two major European carmakers, who intend to install it in all their models. He says Siemens will have a contract with one of Detroit’s Big Three by June. He wouldn’t name the carmakers.

Motor vehicle and child-safety manufacturers advise putting children in the back seat in a properly installed child safety seat or a lap/shoulder belt if they have outgrown the seats.

NHTSA estimates that seat belts saved nearly 9,200 lives and prevented more than 211,000 serious injuries in 1994. Less prevalent air bags, used with seat belts, are credited with saving more than 900 lives since the late ’80s.

Community Driving School instructor supervisor, Ellery Phillips has noticed that more teenagers are fastening their seat belts these days. “It all depends on what the kids have seen their parents do. If Mom and Dad use seat belts, the kids do, too.”

Some GM, Ford, Chrysler and Volvo models offer a child seat built into the vehicle’s rear seat. Consumer Reports found them suitable for children older than 1 and more than 20 pounds, and they liked the fact that the seats could not dislodge in a collision.But infants still must have a separate, rear-facing seat.

Child safety seats, which generally cost $30 to $50, are available at low or no cost through many county health departments. And NHTSA operates a 24-hour auto safety hot line where consumers can get instant information on child safety seats, testing, recalls, etc. The number is 1-800-424-9393.