A traditional rite of summer begins this weekend–the season for family vacations. Between the Memorial Day and Labor Day weekends, an estimated 232 million people will travel 100 miles or more from home–to lakes or beaches, to the great outdoors for camping and hiking, to theme parks, historical sites, various cities and cultural events.
The typical vacation will include more people per trip, longer trips and the same record level of spending as last summer, said William S. Norman, president and chief executive officer of the Travel Industry Association of America. Norman, at an industry forecasting session in New York, predicted that travel will be up 2 percent over last year, adding that more travelers will have kids in tow this summer.
While consumers remain cautious, they are buoyed by continued strong employment, low inflation and a generally strong economy, Norman noted.
This somewhat rosy outlook is based on TIA’s national survey using a random sample of 1,500 U.S. adults, interviewed by telephone, and also by the American Automobile Association’s poll of its travel agency managers. The TIA and AAA presented their forecasts at a joint news briefing.
Favored state destinations for the summer, according to the TIA survey, are Florida (primarily the Orlando area), California (San Diego is popular), Hawaii, Nevada, Texas and Tennessee. Rounding out the Top 10 are Colorado, Arizona, New York and Washington.
An AAA survey puts Orlando on top for the seventh straight year, followed by Grand Canyon National Park in Arizona; Los Angeles/Anaheim; Williamsburg, Va.; and San Diego. The most popular destinations outside the U.S., according to the AAA, are London, Cancun, Frankfurt, the Bahamas and Rome.
Among the AAA’s list of “hot spots” for the summer: Atlanta for the Olympics; Cleveland for the Rock ‘n’ Roll Hall of Fame; and Ledyard, Conn., for the Foxwoods Casino. (For yet another list of summer hot spots, see this week’s 10 for the Road list, to the right.)
TIA said it found that fewer Americans plan to go abroad this summer than last and that pleasure travelers intend to spend an average of 8.5 nights away from home on their longest summer trip, up from 7.9 nights last summer.
While the TIA survey indicates that vacationers plan to spend an average of $1,076 per trip, the AAA’s annual vacation cost survey finds that a family of two adults and two children can expect to pay an average of $193 a day for food and lodging in the U.S., the same amount as last year. The big variable: where people travel.
Least expensive vacation destination is North Dakota, where food and lodging will cost a family an average of $142 a day. Hawaii is the most expensive at $383 a day. The cost estimates are based on prices in AAA’s TourBooks. However, they don’t include money for transportation, entertainment and other expenses.
About the only thing that makes some travelers skittish is the recent increase in gasoline prices, which have jumped an average of 17 cents a gallon in the last three months. The AAA’s survey of gas prices released earlier this month shows the national average for self-serve regular unleaded is $1.30 a gallon, up nearly 7 cents since April.
“The good news is that prices may have peaked and could begin a decline just in time for summer vacations,” said Graeme Clarke, AAA senior vice president for products and services.
Gasoline prices won’t deter most Americans from hopping in their cars and heading out on vacation. Based on the national average of $1.30 a gallon (compared to $1.19 a gallon last year) and driving a car that averages 25 miles a gallon, the typical trip cost would be $11.91 more, Clarke pointed out.
Let’s face it: Families on the road could easily spend that much money in a blink at a souvenir stand or a fast-food spot. Besides, Americans are spoiled by cheap gasoline prices. Consider that gas in the Netherlands and elsewhere in Europe costs more than $4 a gallon, something rarely mentioned by the travel industry.
Gasoline prices are a sensitive issue because the TIA survey indicates that 186 million trips or 80 percent of all vacations will be made by auto, truck or recreational vehicle. An additional 39 million vacation trips or 17 percent of vacationers will fly, up 5 percent from a year ago.
“Similar to last year, more than half of all vacationers will stay in a hotel or motel,” Norman said. “However, this is one area that all travelers–especially families–may economize on by staying in more modestly priced accommodations.”
AAA’s Clarke noted that in part summer travel is driven by the “D” word–discounts. Airlines, he said, are luring travelers to the skies, reducing fares by as much as 50 percent.
“Low-cost carriers, which helped Americans save some $6 billion last year, continue to fuel many of these fare sales.”
However, a new fare war launched (two weeks ago) by United Airlines, offering discounts of up to 45 percent off travel to all 50 states and Canada, isn’t quite as much a bargain as a sale that ended May 10. Tom Parsons, editor of Best Fares Discount Travel Magazine, said the latest sale fares are as much as 18 percent higher than the previous ones. Bargains are a relative thing.
“Vacationers my find fewer `two-for-one’ offers by cruise lines compared to last year, a possible sign that the cruise industry, after two years of flat or declining bookings, may be on the road to recovery,” Clarke said.
“At AAA, travel agency managers are forecasting an increase of nearly 11 percent in summer cruise bookings. Consumers need not worry, however, as reductions of up to 40 percent off are still available to such popular cruise destinations as the Caribbean, Alaska and Europe.”
Whether your summer vacation plans follow the course of the TIA and AAA forecasts, there are some important things you can do to ensure a good vacation:
– Set a realistic budget for your vacation and stick to it. Set a limit for souvenir spending.
– Let your children participate in vacation planning.
– Bone up on the places you plan to visit.
– And most important, have fun.
