1996 numbers in a two-way race: %% %%
%% Clinton 57%
Dole 26%
1996 numbers in a three-way race:
Clinton 49%
Dole 23%
Perot 11%
1992 popular vote election results:
Clinton 46.4%
Bush 35%
Perot 18.8%
1988 popular vote election results:
Bush 50.7%
Dukakis 49.32%
%% Clinton enjoys some of his strongest support in the Northeast, according to the Tribune poll. But that’s nothing new for the president: He carried every Northeast state in the 1992 election.
The Tribune poll shows Clinton with a 31-point advantage in the Northeast in a two-way race with Bob Dole. That lead dwindles only slightly to 26 points in a three-way race with Dole and Perot. Clinton leads Perot by 38 points in the Northeast.
In 1992, Clinton won the Northeast by a wider margin than any other region of the country — 11.4 points. In 1988, Bush squeezed out a 1.4 percentage point win in the Northeast, which was the home of Michael Dukakis.
But seven of the nine Northeast states went with Bush in 1988 and switched to Clinton in 1992, so the delegate-rich region is key to any possible Dole comeback. Wins — even slim ones — in New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey would be worth more than 70 electoral college delegates, and Dole will need them come election day.
