1996 Numbers in a two-way race: %%
Clinton 48% %%
%% Dole 35%
1996 Numbers in a three-way race:
Clinton 43%
Dole 31%
Perot 10%
1992 popular vote election results:
Clinton 42.2%
Bush 41.9%
Perot 15.9%
1988 popular vote election results:
Bush 57.6%
Dukakis 42.4%
%% In the South — Clinton’s home — the president also holds a formidable advantage, according to the Tribune poll, but it’s not as strong as in other regions.
In a two-way race, the tribune poll shows Clinton leading Dole by 13 percentage points — only slightly more than half the lead he holds in the Great Lakes states and just over a third of the lead he boasts in the Northeast. In a three-way race, Clinton’s edge over Dole slips to 12 points in the Tribune poll. Clinton leads Perot by 33 points in the South.
The heavily-Republican South, though, has presented Democrats with their biggest challenge in recent years.
In 1992, Clinton won the popular vote in the South but by less than a percentage point. He carried only four of the eight states, and if not for a big win in Arkansas, his home state, he would not have conquered the popular vote in the region.
In 1988, George Bush trounced Michael Dukakis in the heavily Republican South by carrying every state; his average margin of victory in the popular vote was more than 10 points. Dole’s comeback efforts will focus in part on trying to re-capture the South for the Republican party.
