Get out the dartboard.
Successfully forecasting winners of the Country Music Association’s annual awards is always about as likely as Garth Brooks declaring bankruptcy, and the doleful chore seems even more so in 1996 because of some surprising new nominees and the surprising non-nomination of some expected ones.
Gone, for example, are Reba McEntire (except as part of a quartet in the Vocal Event capacity), who has been a staple of the entertainer of the year and female vocalist of the Year categories for more than a decade. Ditto Alison Krauss, last year’s neo-bluegrass female vocalist of the Year and big winner of the night, whose divergent music has been shunned by mainstream country radio in its not-so-infinite wisdom.
Confusing the predictions for this year’s competition, whose results will be announced in a three-hour ceremony at 7 p.m. Wednesday on WBBM-Ch. 2, are four names: 13-year-old LeAnn Rimes, who came out of the “Blue” with a yodel-laced Patsy Cline-ish debut that rocked the charts and still is rocking cash registers; 22-year-old Bryan White, a baby-faced youth-pleaser with great stage presence; alternative-country favorite Junior Brown; and big-time “redneck” comic and TV star Jeff Foxworthy.
There also are a couple of wild cards in Shania Twain, the industry non-favorite who is sitting comfortably atop more than 7 million sales of her “The Woman in Me” album without even having to tour to hawk it, and Vince Gill, whose popularity with Music Row colleagues has gone far beyond the usual indicators of record sales and crowd draws.
Because of all this (to say nothing of the fickleness of the 7,000 disc jockeys, songwriters, record executives and other industry types who make up the CMA membership), results in all but two of the 12 categories this year are about as predictable as the length of a celebrity marriage. The two are duo of the year, which Brooks & Dunn have dominated, and musician of the year, where perennial winner Mark O’Connor isn’t quite so preeminent but remains very much best-known.
After that, it’s a crapshoot. Thus the fearful annual picks of your confused columnist and his opinionated spouse are less to be relied upon than usual.
Horizon: Here young Rimes, whose blockbuster single “Blue” has been downplayed by much of the Nashville industry as a flukish Cline imitation (Rimes is, please note, the CMA’s youngest award nominee ever) but nevertheless had enough support to get two nominations, faces another of the industry’s unloved in the huge-selling Twain as well as “first female hat act” Terri Clark, rising male hat act Wade Hayes and the contemporary-styled White. Twain was spurned last year for this award for the most career expansion in one year (and Twain’s dwarfed anybody else’s), but maybe with another 12 months to consider her huge accomplishment, voters will give her a nod. Or maybe they’ll grant it to Rimes, who has a huge accomplishment of her own; but be aware that CMA voters are generally slow to recognize such feats. Opinionated Spouse–Twain. Confused Columnist–Clark.
Music video of the year: Director John Lloyd Miller is up twice, for George Strait’s “Check Yes or No” and Gill’s “Go Rest High on That Mountain.” He is opposed by Michael Oblowitz for Brooks & Dunn’s “My Maria,” Michael McNamara for Junior Brown’s “My Wife Thinks You’re Dead” and Coke Sams for “Redneck Games” with Jeff Foxworthy and Alan Jackson. The wild cards here are Foxworthy, who’s a network TV star (will that impress CMA members?) and Brown, an Ernest Tubb-voiced alternative act whose wild guit-steel (a combination of electric guitar and steel guitar) and off-the-wall song lyrics wow the intellectual end of the country spectrum. Sometimes this one goes to the highest-quality video and sometimes to the most popular star. OS–“My Maria.” CC–“My Wife Thinks You’re Dead.”
Musician: Fiddler extraordinaire O’Connor this year is opposed by drummer Eddie Bayers, steel guitarist Paul Franklin, guitarist Brent Mason and keyboardist Matt Rollings. OS–O’Connor. CC–Ditto.
Vocal event: Vintage giants George Jones and Tammy Wynette, with their “One,” face tough opposition from younger contemporaries in Dolly Parton and Gill’s “I Will Always Love You,” Foxworthy and Jackson’s “Redneck Games,” Marty Stuart and Travis Tritt’s “Honkytonkin’s What I Do Best” and McEntire, Trisha Yearwood, Martina McBride and Linda Davis on “On My Own.” OS–“One.” CC–“On My Own.”
Duo: Brooks & Dunn are faced, tremblingly, by Baker & Myers, the Bellamy Brothers, Sweethearts of the Rodeo and John & Audrey Wiggins. OS–B & D. CC–B & D.
Group: Last year’s surprising winners, the supercool Mavericks, again face more mainstream opposition in perennial, venerable nominee Alabama; the also-edgy BlackHawk; recent mainstream multiple winner of this award, Diamond Rio; and long-shut-out Sawyer Brown. There’s probably a chance that Diamond Rio could resurge, Sawyer Brown could finally break through, quietly successful BlackHawk could come to the fore or Alabama could rebound, but the Mavericks, whose career has expanded since the band’s win last year, have become Nashville’s highest-profile group. OS–Diamond Rio. CC– Mavericks.
Song: This award, to a composition’s writer or writers, pits “Any Man of Mine” by Twain and her husband, R.J. “Mutt” Lange, against Danny Wells and Dana Hunt Oglesby’s “Check Yes or No,” performed by Strait; Gill’s “Go Rest High . . .”; Dickey Lee-Karen Staley-Danny Mayo’s “Keeper of the Stars,” performed by Tracy Byrd; and Bobby Braddock’s “Time Marches On,” performed by Tracy Lawrence. This award often goes to a song of heavy content, and the feeling here is that this is between Twain’s lighthearted mega-seller, Gill’s emotional tribute to the deaths of his brother and Keith Whitley, and Braddock’s moving melding of personal and national history. OS–“Go Rest High . . .” CC–“Go Rest High . . .”
Single: Here’s young Rimes’ “Blue” again, this time facing Strait’s “Check Yes or No,” Brooks & Dunn’s “My Maria,” Tracy Lawrence’s “Time Marches On” and Gill’s “Go Rest High . . .” There’s little doubt that the Rimes record made the most splash, but its potential deficiencies in this electorate already have been cited. Gill’s record didn’t reach the Top 10, whereas the others hit the top of the charts. “My Maria” made a big splash as something of a change of material for B & D. OS–“Blue.” CC–Yeah, but . . . “My Maria.”
Album: Strait’s big-selling “Blue Clear Sky” (produced by Strait and Tony Brown) is up against another fast mover in Brooks & Dunn’s “Borderline” (Don Cook and Brooks & Dunn) and Gill’s newer “High Lonesome Sound” (Tony Brown). Also vying are “The Trouble with the Truth” (Emory Gordy Jr.) by Patty Loveless, whose “When Fallen Angels Fly” was last year’s winner of this award, and “Wild Angels” by Martina McBride (McBride, Paul Worley and Ed Seay). The guess here is that the real struggle may pit Gill and Strait against Brooks & Dunn, but Loveless won the category last year and her husband Gordy’s recent hospitalizations could get them a lot of votes for it again. OS–“High Lonesome Sound.” CC–“Blue Clear Sky.”
Female vocalist: In the absence of 1995 winner Alison Krauss, Loveless, who won the top female vocalist title from the Los Angeles-based Academy of Country Music in the spring and the CMA’s album title last fall, has to be a favorite. A dark horse is Twain, who, as aforesaid, hasn’t been a Nashville favorite but deserves recognition. Faith Hill is also popular, Pam Tillis is the 1994 winner, and Martina McBride is another comer. OS–Loveless. CC–Loveless.
Male vocalist: They should start calling this award (rather than Gill’s annual Nashville charity golf tournament) The Vinny; Gill has won it the last five years. Don’t count him out this year, either, although he faces heavy opposition from 1995 entertainer of the year Alan Jackson, the perennially threatening Strait, and category newcomers Collin Raye and Bryan White. OS–Gill. CC–Gill.
Entertainer: The highly popular Jackson must try to defend his 1995 title against hot Brooks & Dunn, who won this same honor at the ACM last spring, as well as the industry-beloved Gill, entertainer extraordinaire Garth Brooks and the dangerous Strait. OS–Jackson. CC–Jackson.
