This year’s Christmas selling season should be slightly better for the nation’s retailers than 1995’s was, according to Diane Swonk, chief deputy economist for First Chicago NBD Corp.
Nationally, retail sales should rise about 5 percent, bettering last year’s 4 percent gain, she said Wednesday. A year ago, she had predicted 1995 Christmas sales would rise only 3.2 percent.
Apparel and general-merchandise sales, which last year rose just 2 percent, should post a 6 percent gain this year, she said.
“Apparel and consumer electronics are expected to do particularly well,” Swonk said. “This contrasts with the last few years, when spending on household furnishings overshadowed more traditional Christmas purchases.”
In the Great Lakes region, Swonk said, retail sales should only be marginally higher, rising 5.5 percent, up from 4.9 percent last year. She had predicted a 4.2 percent increase last year.
Consumers, already carrying heavy debt loads, will continue spending “as long as retailers provide deferred billing and other attractive financing,” she said.
But deferred billing could turn into a millstone for some retailers, because personal bankruptcies are likely to increase and spending to slow, Swonk said.
