Plan ahead and book early. Also, be flexible. The admonitions come from all segments of the travel industry as they look at trends for 1997 and offer advice to consumers.
With no apparent economic blips on the horizon, the travel industry is forecasting a strong year. For example, 5 percent more travelers are expected to take vacations this winter over last, according to the Travel Industry Association of America. That adds up to 9 million Americans who will seek out winter getaways. Overall, domestic travel is expected to grow by 3 to 4 percent next year, the TIA estimated.
Given these facts, all segments of the industry expressed optimism for 1997 as they ready themselves for the New Year. Here’s a look at what travelers can expect.
– Airlines. The Air Transport Association, an industry trade group, can’t comment on air fares because of antitrust restrictions. And airlines are reluctant to discuss their fare strategies. Nevertheless, you can bet that fares will go up.
“I think you’re going to see more air fare increases,” said Tom Parsons, editor of Best Fares Magazine, who tracks fare fluctuations daily. The 10 percent airline ticket tax is due to expire Tuesday, and it could be weeks to months before the new Congress votes to reauthorize the tax. The price of a ticket should drop by 10 percent on Jan. 1, but Parsons said the airlines will keep the money as a fare increase.
“The good news is that we’ll see the upstart airlines start to rebound from the negativity of the ValuJet crash this year,” Parsons said. “As they expand into the East and Midwest, carriers such as Southwest, Vanguard and Frontier will force major airlines to keep their fares low in select pockets,” such as Washington and Boston, to keep traffic from being siphoned by nearby Baltimore and Providence.
Parson predicted that domestic fare wars would occur every two to three weeks, and on international routes to Europe every four or five weeks, but discounts would be based on higher full-coach fares. His advice to consumers: Be very flexible. Contact your travel agent to check fares. Wait for fare wars, but wait for 24 hours to see how competing airlines match or offer the fare with fewer restrictions. Parsons urged travelers to keep an eye out for discount deals offered by carriers and by companies as product purchase incentives.
The ATA said that air travelers might encounter new security rules next year, noting that Vice President Al Gore’s commission studying airline and airport security will deliver its report in February.
– Cruise Lines. “New capacity is keeping (cruise) rates under pressure,” said Rick James, chairman of Cruise Lines International Association, a trade group, and a senior vice president of Princess Cruises. The capacity James referred to includes 13 ships that entered service this year and seven scheduled for 1997. The cruise industry wants to lure more passengers to fill a 6.5 percent gain in capacity.
James’ overview is echoed by Tim Gallagher, a spokesman for Carnival Cruise Lines. “The cruise industry will continue to be very price competitive in 1997, very much the way it was in 1996. At some times of the year, prices were very similar to what we were offering in 1983,” Gallagher said. At times, he added, passengers could sail on any of the major lines for as low as $600 a person. “That’s an absolute steal.”
– Car rentals. “During the first quarter of 1997, we are seeing strong demand in many U.S. leisure markets,” said Susan Welty, a spokeswoman for Budget Rent A Car Corp. “Book early, especially in destinations like Florida and Hawaii.”
Welty noted that improved yield management systems, which help companies to fine tune their pricing, are enabling rental car companies to better plan their fleets to meet consumer demand.
To save money on car rentals, Welty suggested that consumers ask about various special promotion rates that are available throughout the year. Consumers who need such extras as baby seats, ski racks and insurance should ask about all-inclusive rates, Milrad advised. She also said consumers should see which of their affiliations provide discounts–organizations such as the American Automobile Association and the American Association of Retired Persons.
– Hotels. With a lot more people traveling this year and next, hotels across the country will continue to emerge from their early ’90s slump. Hotels had very high occupancy rates in 1995–65.5 percent–and these rates are expected to be higher this year and next, said Kathryn Porter, spokeswoman for the American Hotel & Motel Association. Because of increased demand for rooms, consumers will see an increase in room rates, she said. “Cities such as New York, Washington and Chicago were fully booked at times this year.”
– Amtrak. The nation’s passenger rail service said it will continue its efforts to improve and monitor customer services in 1997. Amtrak said it will offer more convenient schedules, improved food services, cleaner restrooms and add new sleeping and passenger cars as well as locomotives in 1997.
The specific improvements cited by Mary Anne Reynolds, an Amtrak spokeswoman, include 50 state-of-the-art Viewliner sleepers to be added on eastern routes, along with 198 new Superliner II passenger cars on the Auto Train and all long-distance routes.
By the end of January, customers will be able to use their ATM/debit cards to pay for tickets at all major Amtrak stations and when ordering tickets by mail. Internet bookings on Amtrak’s web site (http://www.amtrak.com) will be possible by mid-March. By year’s end, nearly 200 self-serve ticket machines will serve travelers at Amtrak’s busiest stations.
On May 11, daily service will be restored on three popular routes–the Empire Builder (Chicago-Portland-Seattle), the California Zephyr (Chicago-Oakland/San Francisco) and the City of New Orleans (Chicago-New Orleans). New York-Chicago service will be provided by extending the Three Rivers (New York-Pittsburgh) service.
Amtrak will continue to promote its fare bargains, but plan ahead if you want sleeping car space.
Happy New Year!
