Fast forward to 2147: Is “Home Sweet Home” the same old roof over our heads or shelter only Star Trek creator Gene Roddenbury could love?
We asked housing gurus across the country to peer into the future and answer this 150-year question. No easy task, because change already is occurring at an exponential rate, experts say.
“My parents’ generation went from not having airplanes or telephones to their being commonplace,” points out Roberta Feldman, co-director of the City Design Center at the University of Illinois at Chicago. “What once took a lifetime to change is now occurring in 10 or 20 years.”
Nonetheless, visionaries agreed to gaze into their crystal balls.
Pushing the envelope
“We’re going to be all over the planet,” says Barry Berkus, principal of B3 Architects and Planners in Santa Barbara, Calif. Advances in technology will enable man to tackle development in places previously untapped, such as Australia’s interior.
“Transportation will change radically,” says Berkus, noting folks will travel faster and move resources more easily–not just food and building supplies, but energy.
Residences of the 23rd Century will not be restricted to the ground, adds Berkus. Technology used on oil rig platforms will be harnessed to colonize the seas while space station technology will enable developers to create “above grade” airborne residences.
Disappearing American dream
In the coming centuries, the only place for today’s suburban house, with its sprawling lawn, may be a museum.
“I think the biggest issue for the future is whether we can sustain the American Dream of the single-family detached house,” says Jim Wentling, head of his own architecture firm in Philadelphia.
The U.S. is one of the last countries to face density problems, but experts agree that it’s inevitable here. Rising population, energy issues, and looming land costs all point to more compact housing.
Currently, average suburban development runs about four homes per acre, observes Christopher B. Leinberger, managing director of the Robert Charles Lesser Co. in Santa Fe, N.M. But in the 23rd Century, Leinberger looks for that to swell fivefold to 20 homes per acre.
“The name of the game is getting more on acreage as it gets more expensive,” agrees Lewis Goodkin, a Miami-based real estate market analyst. “Affordability becomes the ultimate amenity.”
That means attached housing becomes the new norm. Wentling expects walk-ups with three levels to be the rule-of-thumb, noting: “People want to keep a relationship to the ground as much as possible.”
Forget about three-car garages in the future. Energy issues as well as space restrictions will undoubtedly put a squeeze on the automobile.
Homeownership itself may even become obsolete, predicts Tom Bozzuto, an apartment building developer in Greenbelt, Md. If the economy should become chaotic he doubts that the U.S. government will continue to subsidize homeownership via the mortgage deduction.
The incredible shrinking house
Homeowners in the year 2147 will not only be sharing common walls, but living in far less space. Even the affluent will be forced to downsize.
Homes will be designed like boats, focusing on the cubic inch rather than the square foot with “virtually no wasted space” predicts Leinberger.
Indeed, functionality is a looming theme, experts agree. Kitchen appliances will become more compact, TV and stereos–if they’re still around, because some experts predict the computer will replace them–will be installed in the wall, reducing both space needs and excess furniture. Closets will hit a new acme of organization.
Space savings also will be realized by manipulating the fourth dimension–time.
“The house changes as time of day changes,” explains Leinberger. When a family wakes up, children will head off to school and parents will stay home to work.
Via electronic wizardry, living space will instantly be converted into workspace: panels will pop in and out, built-ins will emerge and rooms will take on totally different configurations. At end of day, workspace converts back to family space.
“Every room will be flex space,” agrees Brooke Warrick, head of American Lives, a market research firm in San Francisco.
Space savings aside, the ability to alter our physical environment will eliminate the need–and accompanying stress–of swapping addresses every time a family’s size or lifestyle change.
Though many Americans may cringe at the thought of shrinking space, experts look forward to the future.
“I see too many homes today built for emotional sales value versus true human lifestyle needs,” says J. Carson Looney, a principal at Looney Rick Kiss Architects in Memphis. He eschews current homes that feature overblown stairways installed solely for an impression of grandeur–designs he likes to call “Scara instead of Tara.”
Looney also makes fun of expansive bathrooms that “suggest close encounters of an intimate kind on a daily basis rather than a place to hang your toothbrush.”
Looney quotes Le Corbusier, the Swiss architect, hoping the house of the future becomes “a machine for living.”
“We live more informally, even though we don’t want to admit it,” observes Sarah Susanka, architect and a principal at Mulfinger, Susanka, Mahady & Partners in Minneapolis.
Susanka recalls attending a wedding held in a private home–the perfect time to make use of that swimming pool-sized living room, thought the hosts.
What happened? Everyone gravitated to the family room and kitchen.
In the future, “our comfort level with informality will come into balance,” says Susanka. Formal dining rooms and living rooms will follow outhouses into oblivion.
Back-to-the-future architecture
Sterile plastic modules such as George Jetson occupies will remain in cartoonland. Even though interiors are destined for major metamorphosis, exteriors of homes will remain pretty recognizable from a design perspective.
“Housing styles don’t change like cars or clothing,” says Mark McInturff, head of his own architecture firm in Bethesda, Md.
Designs haven’t shifted significantly in the last 150 years, he points out. People want their houses to feel like houses, other experts say
There may be modifications, but residences still will feature sloped roofs, windows, and so on.
Smart houses get smarter
So you thought your Honeywell thermostat was state-of-the-art? Hold onto your hat. Compared to technological advancements about to take place, we’re in the Stone Age, say futurists.
New breeds of heating and cooling systems will be more efficient and reduce reliance on natural resources. Conservation of water will become an acute issue, prompting emergence of recycling systems.
Bozzuto believes that home dwellers will customize their climate by carrying around a computer chip that instantly readjusts a room to their temperature of choice.
Indeed, many futurists believe it may be possible to alter the look of interiors merely by flipping a switch. Decorate with English Tudor furniture today and live with Louis XIV tomorrow.
So long, stick built
Although homes may not appear dramatically different on the outside, construction is another story.
“I can’t even imagine building out of glass and steel and concrete anymore,” says Feldman.
New materials will be both maintenance-free and recyclable.
Warrick envisions some form of machine that weaves houses: “When you’re done with it, you can disassemble and reuse.” Or set up somewhere else.
Natural resources will still be around, but will be used judiciously. For example, paper-thin veneers will give the warm look of wood but won’t necessitate cutting down extra trees.
Homes wear multiple hats
The single-family house and evolution of suburbia created a nation of commuters, widening the gap between home and work. In the 23rd Century, activities will become more integrated, especially when it comes to jobs.
Not everyone will be working out of the home–at least, not all the time–but the march toward a decentralized workplace continues, experts say.
Reflecting this trend, future homes will feature a bonafide office component.
“Working out of the home won’t mean the kitchen table or a bedroom,” says Pete Halter, head of VR Halter and Associates, a real estate consulting firm in Atlanta.
“I’m talking about a real office, not just wherever you can put an extra phone jack.”
Teleconferencing screens will become standard, experts agree–a frightening prospect for those lone eagles who prefer to work in their pajamas.
Homes also will be electronically linked with community services, such as libraries and hospitals.
As homes wear more hats, people will become more insular, and some experts worry about cultural unity.
“Our relationships will not be with neighbors unless we really like them. Our relationships will be formed around those with whom we share our work or our pleasures,” says Nina Gruen, a sociologist with Gruen Gruen & Associates, a market research and consulting firm in San Francisco.
This has major ramifications, says Gruen, perpetuating “anti-nationalism even as we globalize our relationships.”
New breed of mobile homes
Going global may mean becoming even more mobile.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if people have more than one house in more than one country,” says Halter. Depending on an individual’s work or the seasons, he or she may set up housekeeping in London or Singapore. Or both.
“Home is not just a house, but a matter of houses,” he explains.
Mobility might be reflected another way. Advances in materials may enable people to physically move their residences from place to place instead of maintaining second homes.
“We could pick our environmental experiences,” says Warrick.
