The nation’s retailers are beginning to fret about holidays metamorphosing from ho-ho-ho to ho-hum. Store owners complain that the slap of hands on wallets is hardly deafening, as consumers, many laden with debt, adopt a wait-and-see attitude. The question is whether last-minute shoppers can push retailers over the top, to their year-end goals. Chicago economist Greg Mount says that, when the holiday rush is over, seasonal sales will have risen 4 to 5 percent from a year earlier. “That’s not as strong as retailers hoped, but it is better than many people thought,” says Mount, of First Chicago NBD Corp. He says the lowest jobless rate in 24 years, coupled with very low inflation, guarantees a merry holiday season for the economy. As for consumers, “the fact they put off shopping to the last minute means they are picking up bargains and discounts,” he says. “
MANUFACTURING
INFLATION WATCH
While the manufacturing sector zooms along in high gear, the economic crisis in Asia is raising concerns that the brakes will slam on, sooner or later. Tuesday’s report on November durable goods orders could show a bit of slippage, after a 0.1 percent dip a month earlier, says Chicago economist Samuel Kahan. “Remember that the economy is in its seventh year of expansion, and we must remain on watch for signs of slowing,” says Kahan, of A.S.K. Financial Research. “Any steep decline in manufacturing orders should make us nervous.”
CHRISTMAS SCHEDULE
HOME FOR HOLIDAYS
While workers frolic, this is the time that tests the patience of bosses, who search in vain for employees. On Thursday, banks, government offices, as well as stock, bond, commodities, futures and options markets will shut down for Christmas Day. The New York Stock Exchange is closing at noon both Wednesday and Friday. The Management Association of Illinois says roughly one in eight Chicago-area firms will shut down completely this week; one-third plan to take Wednesday, Thursday and Friday off as a paid holiday period.
STOCK MARKET
BEARING UP?
The scent of a bear was in the air over Wall Street last week, as some analysts declared the stock market is due for some mauling. With global pressures closing in, they expressed fears that stocks will curl up and go into hibernation. Investment manager Jim Oberweis says the current environment, is, indeed, difficult for many companies, especially small high-technology firms. “The small techs are off about 20 percent or more since the end of September,” he says. Oberweis, of Oberweis Asset Management Inc., North Aurora, says, however, that investors can look forward to a respite next month, when the “January effect” usually lifts stock prices. He adds, “January is a month when small stocks usually outperform big stocks.”
