I don’t see any iceberg threatening most of “Titanic’s” flotilla of 14 Oscar nominations. Indeed, March 23 will be a night to remember for James Cameron, who will win two awards, for directing and for producing the Best Picture winner.
OK, Kate Winslet will not win as Best Actress; in my opinion, her characterization was too bland to deserve even a nomination. My eyes went to her co-star, Leonardo DiCaprio, in their every scene together. That DiCaprio wasn’t nominated as Best Actor is one of the great oversights in Academy Award history. And there have been many.
These thoughts are triggered by the arrival of the 28th annual Beat Siskel Oscar-guessing contest, the granddaddy of them all. This year, you will be competing with entrants from newspapers across the country and thousands of Internet competitors around the world for prizes valued at nearly $10,000 a contest record, thanks to Cineplex Odeon and Planet Hollywood.
You probably already know the drill. I give my predictions – not personal preferences – for the winners in the top five categories: the four acting awards and Best Picture. You do the same and then answer our traditional tie-breaker question: Which film will win the most Oscars, and how many will it win? I don’t answer that question, so you can mark your ballot with all of my predictions (not a bad idea inasmuch as I average four out of five correct each year) and still Beat Siskel if you answer the tie-breaker correctly.
Then just follow the filing instructions elsewhere in this package and get ready for the Academy Awards telecast at 8 p.m. on March 23 on ABC.
So here we go.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
It can be helpful to begin analyzing a category by eliminating the sure losers. If I had to predict which nominees here will receive the fewest votes, my choices would be among Robert Forster, a veteran actor in a comeback role as a bail bondsman in Quentin Tarantino’s “Jackie Brown”; Greg Kinnear as a put-upon gay artist in “As Good As It Gets”; and Anthony Hopkins as former President John Quincy Adams challenging racism in “Amistad.”
Forster’s role isn’t splashy enough; Kinnear is too young to be considered a serious actor in this crowd; and Hopkins is so great so often that this role may seem to voters to be like a stroll in the park for him.
And then there were two: Burt Reynolds’ comeback role as a porno film director in “Boogie Nights” and Robin Williams as a nurturing psychologist in “Good Will Hunting.” I think many voters will be touched by Reynolds’ getting his professional and, perhaps, his personal life together. Some older academy members may even vote for him on that basis without having seen his raunchy movie. By comparison, Williams’ solid performance seems safe and more routine.
The prediction: Burt Reynolds wins and cries during his acceptance speech.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Minnie Driver, the love interest of the title character in “Good Will Hunting,” will pick up few votes for a performance that seems more generic than exciting. Julianne Moore, den mother to porno actors in “Boogie Nights,” creates a memorable character, but the subject matter of the film may cost her votes without the widely publicized comeback story that will help Burt Reynolds triumph for the same film. Joan Cusack is a standout nominee because she is the only actor among the 20 nominees to give a purely comic performance, as a jilted bride in “In & Out.” But comic work rarely takes home the trophy.
And once again there were two: Kim Basinger’s hooker in “L.A. Confidential” and the sentimental choice of 87-year-old actress Gloria Stuart, playing a character 14 years older than that, a survivor of that fateful voyage of “Titanic.”
Basinger has a big chance because she had been pigeonholed by her colleagues and by most moviegoers as just a body. This performance has depth and texture and represents more the arrival of a new talent than a comeback.
But the case for Stuart, the oldest acting nominee ever, is more obvious. Older academy members, of which there are many, will vote as a bloc for her. And “Titanic”-connected voters, of which there are many more because two studios co-financed it and hundreds of filmworkers helped create it, also will be drawn to Stuart. She will win but will not cry as much as Burt Reynolds.
BEST ACTOR
I might as well reveal my methodology for making my selections. I don’t simply rely on my instincts; I do a little reporting. Every year, I call the same three Hollywood executives – a marketing chief, a publicist and a studio head – and pick their brains. Then I factor in their biases and make my own selections. To a man and woman, they each predicted without hesitation the same winner in this category this year, and caught me by surprise in so doing – Jack Nicholson, the obsessively mean neighbor in “As Good As It Gets.”
Nicholson may be the most popular actor in Hollywood. He is regarded as a throwback to glamorous, charismatic stars of Hollywood’s golden era. But lately he hasn’t been making the kind of pictures that made him a star. His walk-on in the lame “Terms of Endearment” sequel called “The Evening Star” was a low point. So his work in “As Good As It Gets,” while admittedly often a collection of his best grins and leers, is being greeted in Hollywood as “Jack’s Back!”
That may be enough to lead him to victory over three contemporaries: Dustin Hoffman, as the Hollywood producer who helps manufacture the threat of a war in “Wag the Dog”; Robert Duvall, who wrote, produced, directed and stars in “The Apostle,” the story of a deeply flawed pentecostal minister; and Peter Fonda, the long-suffering father in “Ulee’s Gold.”
Only Fonda, Nicholson’s co-star nearly 30 years ago in “Easy Rider,” has a big chance to upset Jack. The only problem is whether enough academy members will have seen “Ulee’s Gold.” Home video cassettes initially were sent to the 1,400 actors among the 5,300 voters who do the nominating in the actors’ categories. Now that Fonda has received a nomination, the remainder of the membership has received copies of “Ulee’s Gold.” But not one of the experts I talked with had yet screened the picture – a bad sign.
What about the fifth nominee, Matt Damon? He will get points for co-writing his role as a closet genius in “Good Will Hunting.” But his youth (he’s 27) will work against him in this nominee list of veterans. Voters may think he’ll live to receive many more nominations.
The winner? My gut told me Peter Fonda; my experts tell me Nicholson. They have ballots. I predict Jack Nicholson wins his third Oscar and, in his acceptance speech, salutes his former co-star Fonda as “Captain America” from “Easy Rider.”
BEST ACTRESS
If this category were to be decided simply on merit, the hands-down winner in my opinion would be the great British actress Dame Judi Dench. Her portrayal of a sad and lonely Queen Victoria in “Mrs. Brown” is the finest of all 20 nominated performances. But, again, the issue is how many voters will have seen this small film that doesn’t have a big studio marketing campaign behind it or mass distribution in Los Angeles and New York area theaters or its star popping up on talk shows or in media interviews.
Three other candidates are British. Helena Bonham Carter played the conniving heroine who values love and money, not necessarily in that order, in “The Wings of the Dove.” Kate Winslet, as I mentioned earlier, has no chance to win for “Titanic.” But Julie Christie, playing a faded actress in “Afterglow,” has a good shot because she is a well-regarded talent who has made many friends during her distinguished career, which includes an Oscar for “Darling” (1965).
The only American on the list is popular TV actress Helen Hunt, who has a weekly prime-time commercial for her talent – her show “Mad About You.” Hunt plays the single mom and waitress who charms Jack Nicholson in “As Good As It Gets.” Being the sole American nominee helped bring home the gold five years ago for Marisa Tomei (“My Cousin Vinny”). It can’t hurt Hunt.
I would predict Julie Christie, but I don’t think enough voters will see “Afterglow.” My uneasy choice is Helen Hunt.
BEST PICTURE
In a word, “Titanic.” The other nominees are “As Good As It Gets,” “The Full Monty,” “Good Will Hunting” and “L.A. Confidential.” The latter will receive the second-most votes.
If you don’t select “Titanic” in this category and in the tie-breaker question, I seriously question your desire to share in the $10,000 worth of prizes. You can see my uncertainty in some of the other categories and are encouraged to disagree with my final selections. But don’t do it in this category.
But still, we call the contest Beat Siskel. Go for it.
THE CHOICES
Here are the Academy Award nomiees for the five categories of this yerar’s Beat Siskel contest:
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Forster (“Jackie Brown”)
Anthony Hopkins (“Amistad”)
Greg Kinnear (“As Good As It Gets”)
Burt Reynolds (“Boogie Nights”)
Robin Williams (“Good Will Hunting”)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kim Basinger (“L.A. Confidential”)
Joan Cusack (“In & Out”)
Minnie Driver (“Good Will Hunting”)
Julianne Moore (“Boogie Nights”)
Gloria Stuart (“Titanic”)
ACTOR
Matt Damon (“Good Will Hunting”)
Robert Duvall (“The Apostle”)
Peter Fonda (“Ulee’s Gold”)
Dustin Hoffman (“Wag the Dog”)
Jack Nicholson (“As Good As It Gets”)
ACTRESS
Helena Bonham Carter
(“The Wings of the Dove”)
Julie Christie (“Afterglow”)
Judi Dench (“Mrs. Brown”)
Helen Hunt (“As Good As It Gets”)
Kate Winslet (“Titanic”)
PICTURE
“As Good As It Gets”
“The Full Monty”
“Good Will Hunting”
“L.A. Confidential”
“Titanic.”
Nominations list A.M.P.A.S.
THE OFFICIAL RULES
1. TO ENTER: You must be 18 years of age or older. NO PURCHASE NECESSARY. Complete the official entry form and attach it to a postcard or to the back of an envelope (use tape or glue; do not use staples), or print your answers, along with your full name, address and daytime telephone number, on a 3×5 card or postcard or on the back of an envelope and mail it to: Beat Siskel, P.O. Box 8673, Chicago, Illinois, 60680-8673. ENTRY BLANKS ENCLOSED IN ENVELOPES ARE NOT ELIGIBLE. To enter on the Internet, complete the official entry form available at the Chicago Tribune web site, www.chicago.tribune.com/go/beatsiskel. One entry per person. Entrants must use their own name. Contest begins March 6, 1998, and ends at noon on March 23, 1998. All entries must be received by noon March 23, 1998. Mechanical reproductions, facsimiles, entries containing technical or electronic reproductions, e-mail entries containing attached files, mail entries stamped with a private postage meter, and entries that do not comply with these rules are not eligible and will be rejected. All entries become property of Chicago Tribune and will not be returned. Chicago Tribune is not responsible for lost, incomplete, damaged, illegible, late, postage due or misdirected entries, or for errors in mechanical transmission, technical difficulties, or for inability to transmit Internet entries.
2. WINNERS: The contest will have four winners. The entry with the most correct answers will win first prize; the entry with the second-most correct answers will win second prize, etc. In case of a tie for any prize, the entrant with the most correct answers who also correctly answers the tie-breaker question will be the winner. If a tie still exists, winners will be chosen in a random drawing from among the tied entries. Winners will be announced by the April 10 issue of the Chicago Tribune and posted on the Internet at www.chicago.com by that date. Odds of winning depend on the number of eligible entries received. Entrants agree Chicago Tribune has the sole right to decide all matters and disputes related to the contest and that Chicago Tribune’s determination is final and binding. Winners agree to allow use of their name, photograph and likeness in any medium of communication, including print, Internet, radio and/or television for advertising promotional or other purposes by Chicago Tribune, its affiliates or sponsors, without additional compensation. Winners must execute an affidavit of eligibility and release of liability within 14 days of selection as a prize winner and/or prior to receiving prize. Winners assume all applicable tax liability for the contest prize.
3. PRIZES: Prizes are non-transferable, non-negotiable and not redeemable for cash. One first-prize winner will receive $3,500. One second-prize winner will receive two round-trip, coach-class air fares between Chicago and Los Angeles, hotel accommodations for two for two nights in Los Angeles, dinner for two at Formosa restaurant, five meals for two at Planet Hollywood and two Planet Hollywood hats and T-shirts (approximate total value: $5,168). All travel and hotel arrangements must be made by Chicago Tribune’s designated agent. Trip must be taken by Dec. 31, 1998. Travel restrictions, including space limitations and blackout dates, apply. Winners are responsible for all incidental charges, including telephone calls, valet, meals, gratuities, merchandise, room service and all applicable taxes. One third-prize winner will receive one Planet Hollywood leather jacket and 10 pairs of passes to Cineplex Odeon theaters (approximate total value: $500). One fourth-prize winner will receive 15 pairs of passes to Cineplex Odeon theaters (approximate value: $225). If any prize becomes unavailable, Chicago Tribune reserves the right to substitute a prize of comparable value. Prizes must be claimed by April 6, 1998. Any prize not claimed by April 6, 1998, will be awarded to another entrant selected according to the same rules and criteria as the original winner.
4. ELIGIBILITY: This contest is not open to employees of the Chicago Tribune, Cineplex Odeon Inc., or their immediate family, or to employees or immediate family of any Chicago Tribune or Cineplex Odeon parent, subsidiary, affiliated company, licensee, advertising or promotional agency, or sponsor. Contest is sponsored by Chicago Tribune Company, Cineplex Odeon Theatres Inc. and Planet Hollywood Inc., P.O. Box 8673, Chicago, Illinois, 60680-8673. Void where prohibited or restricted. Not open to residents of any country, state or jurisdiction that prohibits sweepstakes of this sort. Chicago Tribune reserves the right to reject entries from countries, states and jurisdictions where this contest is prohibited.
5. INTERNET: If for any reason, the Internet-related portion of this contest is not capable of running as planned, including infection by computer virus, tampering, unauthorized intervention, fraud, technical failure, or any other cause which corrupts or threatens the administration, security, fairness, integrity or proper conduct of the contest, Chicago Tribune reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to cancel, terminate or suspend any portion of the contest as necessary to ensure fairness. ANY ATTEMPT TO DAMAGE OR UNDERMINE THE FAIR AND LEGITIMATE OPERATION OF THIS CONTEST WILL RESULT IN DISQUALIFICATION FROM THE CONTEST. Contest rules shall be governed and enforced pursuant to Illinois law, excluding choice of law provisions. This contest is conducted with the permission of, but is not affiliated with, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
THE PRIZES
For the first time, the ever-expanding Beat Siskel contest is awarding four prizes instead of one. The first prize is $3,500 cash. Second prize is two round-trip, coach-class airfares between Chicago and Los Angeles, hotel accommodations for two for two nights in Los Angeles, dinner for two at Formosa restaurant, five meals for two at Planet Hollywood and two Planet Hollywood hats and T-shirts (approximate total value: $5,168). Third prize is one Planet Hollywood leather jacket and 10 pairs of passes to Cineplex Odeon theaters (approximate total value: $500). The fourth prize is 15 pairs of passes to Cineplex Odeon theaters (approximate value: $225). (See rules for details.)
The trip to Los Angeles and movie passes are courtesy of Cineplex Odeon. Dinners and merchandise are courtesy of Planet Hollywood.
HOW TO ENTER
You may enter the Beat Siskel contest using the paper ballot in this layout, or you also may enter electronically. Submit your interactive entry on the World Wide Web at www.chicago.tribune.com/go/beatsiskel (no attached files, please) or, on America Online, go to keyword: TribQuiz in Digital City Chicago for an interactive version of the contest.
THE BALLOT
BEST PICTURE
BEST ACTOR
BEST ACTRESS
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
FILM WINNING MOST OSCARS
AND HOW MANY
Note: “Titanic” has 14 nominations. “L.A. Confidential” and “Good Will Hunting” have nine each.
YOUR NAME
ADDRESS
CITY, STATE, ZIP CODE
PHONE
Mail to: Beat Siskel, P.O. Box 8673, Chicago, IL 60680-8673;
or send electronically through www.chicago.tribune.com/go/beatsiskel on the World Wide Web, or keyword: TribQuiz in Digital City Chicago on America Online.
