Breaking down the regionals:
West
A year ago, Arizona entered the tournament as fourth seed and had to claw through three No. 1s on its way to glory. This year, as a reward for their efforts, the selection committee has handed the Wildcats a La-Z-Boy.
Arizona opens against Nicholls State, then draws either Tennessee or Illinois State. After that, the Wildcats’ toughest challenge figures to come from either Illinois or Maryland. If the seeds hold, Arizona’s likely opponent in the regional final would be Cincinnati, which has played its best ball down the stretch but is probably the weakest No. 2 in the field. The third seed is Utah, a mystery team that isn’t nearly as imposing as its 25-3 record indicates, as evidenced by its flop in the quarterfinals of the WAC tournament.
Arizona was so much better than the rest of the Pac-10 that it seemed a little indifferent at times down the stretch. Still, the Wildcats responded to a late loss at Southern Cal by defeating UCLA in Westwood Saturday.
If Arizona doesn’t advance to San Antonio, it may be the biggest upset of the tournament.
Of course, this is probably the time to point out that Lute Olson’s Arizona teams have produced some of the more memorable flops in NCAA tournament history. But Wildcats fans will be relieved to know that Santa Clara, a 15th seed that knocked off No. 2 seed Arizona in 1993, isn’t even in the tournament this spring.
Midwest
It’s possible that Kansas coach Roy Williams will find something to whine about in the next week. But it can’t be his opening-round game against Prairie View in Oklahoma City. The top-seeded Jayhawks have been matched against a team with an RPI of 263, lowest in tournament history.
Kansas could be tested in the third round by fourth-seeded Ole Miss, which won eight of its last 10 games and has a major scorer in Ansu Sesay. Of course, Ole Miss has to get past Valparaiso and the Drews–coach Homer and three-point gunner Bryce.
It will be a shock if the Jayhawks aren’t in the regional final for the fourth time this decade.
The Chicago bracket isn’t quite as easy to read. Second-seeded Purdue is thrilled to be playing in front of its legions, but after disposing of Delaware the Boilermakers face a toughie against either St. John’s or Detroit. The Red Storm has four scorers who average in double figures. Detroit, meanwhile, has developed a reputation as a pest to Big Ten teams.
Given the Big Ten’s recent NCAA troubles, no one should be surprised if the Boilermakers leave Chicago next weekend just as they did this one–as losers.
East
North Carolina landed the top seed here by virtue of its rout of Duke in the finals of the ACC tournament, the rubber match in the three-game series with the Blue Devils.
That means Carolina would play the third and fourth rounds in Greensboro, N.C., in the heart of Heels country.
This regional has all sorts of interesting story lines. The Michigan State-Eastern Michigan matchup in Hartford, Conn., gives the Eagles a chance to complete a sweep of their Big Ten neighbors; they beat Michigan in the fall.
It would be harder to find a more unusual pairing of universities than UNLV and Princeton in the first round. Princeton is a fifth seed, highest for an Ivy League team. The Tigers are two victories from a rematch with North Carolina, which handed them their only defeat this year, by eight points.
If the seeds hold, Carolina would face Connecticut in the regional final. The Huskies, who might be the best No. 2 seed, deserve better than to face Carolina in Carolina.
South
The Dookies badly wanted to earn the top seed in the East so that they could play in Greensboro. Those plans got scrubbed after Sunday’s loss to North Carolina. But we hear St. Pete is nice this time of year, and that’s where Duke is headed barring a colossal upset.
The Blue Devils aren’t likely to be pressed in the first two rounds, after which they could face overrated New Mexico or undermanned Syracuse.
In the finals, Duke could run into Kentucky, which struggled at times but closed with nine wins in its last 10 games. But don’t count out Michigan. By roaring to the Big Ten tournament title, the Wolverines showed signs that they are gearing up for a run deep into the NCAAs. With a dominant inside game and reliable outside shooting, Michigan could present problems to every team in this regional.
