Waking up on a morning that would give new meaning to the term “March Madness,” I flipped on the radio and learned that power was out in various parts of the city. Phones were down in some areas. Trees had fallen and couldn’t get up.
This could mean only one thing: I wouldn’t have to make my picks for the NCAA tournament brackets.
I could tell the boss that high winds had knocked out my fax machine, or that I couldn’t get the car out of the driveway, or that I sprained my typing fingers shoveling the walk.
There are many opportunities to look foolish in this life, but few as public as the annual expert-picks-the-NCAA-brackets. Every newspaper from Boston to San Diego wants its expert to predict who will win 63 college basketball games involving 64 teams, half of which said expert never has seen play.
Then the editors set aside a box in the corner of the sports department for letters that begin, “Dear Knucklehead . . .”
But Mother Nature, the top seed in the Weather Channel Invitational, was going to let me off the hook on this manic Monday. I poured a cup of coffee and turned to the comics.
Then the phone rang. It was the office.
“Got your brackets done?” inquired a sarcasm-tinged voice.
Imagine an IRS guy calling on April 14 and saying, “Got your taxes done yet?” What they’re thinking, but not saying, is: “Wait till we get a load of this.”
So here goes. The next national champion will be . . .
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. First, a few rules of thumb.
– I like teams from conferences whose titles include “Atlantic”–the Atlantic Coast Conference, the Atlantic 10 and Metro Atlantic. Iona is this year’s entry from the Metro Atlantic, and I have the Gaels whipping Syracuse in the first round of the South Regional.
I’m dubious on teams from the Big 12 and the Western Athletic Conference, which, excluding Kansas, are practically the same league. Utah is overrated, as are its two favorite WAC whipping posts, Texas Christian and New Mexico. None gets past my second round.
– I’m big on upsets. Who isn’t?
In the first round, I’m taking 13th-seeded Eastern Michigan over No. 4 Michigan State in the East. The reason: The Spartans haven’t won since they hoisted the Big Ten championship banner before the final game of the regular season. The hoops gods were not pleased by this show of immodesty, and they have sent Earl Boykins to make the Spartans pay.
In later rounds, I see seventh-seeded Temple beating second-seeded Cincinnati in Boise in the West Regional. Why? Because even the newly sweet John Chaney is still badder than Bob Huggins.
I have third-seeded Michigan over second-seeded Kentucky in the South semifinal. This is only an upset to people in Lexington.
I should have picked 14th-seeded Richmond over No. 3 seed South Carolina, but resisted. This was my first second-guess of the tournament.
I’m thinking it won’t be my last.
– When in doubt, take the school with fewer letters in its name. Thus, scrappy UIC gets the nod over UNCC (North Carolina-Charlotte to the uninitiated) in the East’s first round. The Flames want it more.
– I’m cool to schools whose names begin with “I.”
That includes Illinois. The Fighting Illini had a terrific season, but the joyride ends against Maryland in the second round. And as for Indiana, it will find a way to win its first NCAA tournament game in four years, against Oklahoma, which is hardly a surpassing achievement. Then the Hoosiers will be sliced and diced by Connecticut.
I’m not about to predict what Bob Knight will do between now and then.
– Always go with teams that have blue in their uniforms.
One exception: No way do the 15th-seeded Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens beat Purdue in the Midwest opening round.
The blue theory may explain my Final Four: North Carolina, Arizona, Duke and–surprise, surprise–Ole Miss.
None of them will cruise to San Antonio. My guess is that at least one of the top seeds–Arizona, which has had trouble staying interested lately–will have to win an overtime game on the way to the Final Four.
I gave a moment’s thought to picking Michigan to go to the Final Four, and not only because of its school colors. By storming to the Big Ten tournament title, the Wolverines showed that they are getting hot at the right moment. But I can’t see them defeating Duke in the South regional final.
I have Ole Miss, a fourth seed, shocking Kansas in the round of 16. The Jayhawks look unbeatable, but they looked that way a year ago before falling to another No. 4 seed, Arizona. Ole Miss didn’t make the Southeastern Conference tournament final, but that only provides motivation.
Besides, it wouldn’t have shown much imagination to have all four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four.
A year ago, Arizona used its victory over Kansas as a springboard to the national title. This year, Ole Miss will use its triumph over Kansas as a springboard to a double-digit loss to Duke, which has too many weapons for the Rebels.
In the other national semifinal, North Carolina and Arizona will meet in the game of the tournament. Arizona wins because it has the more reliable guards. Arizona’s Mike Bibby shows why he should be national Player of the Year over Carolina’s Antawn Jamison, but not before Jamison drops 30 on the Wildcats.
So it all boils down to Arizona and Duke, with the Wildcats prevailing on the strength of their experience in last year’s Final Four. Duke’s day will come.
In all correspondence, it’s Mr. Knucklehead, please.
