Fifty-one years ago, a group of nuclear scientists committed to preventing nuclear war started a “Doomsday Clock.”
The scientists, several of whom helped build the first atomic bomb, invented the clock to symbolize the threat of nuclear war.
The clock, which is stored at the University of Chicago in Hyde Park, is no ordinary timepiece. Its hands don’t measure time – they measure the tensions in the world that could lead to nuclear war.
The closer the hands are to midnight, the greater the risk of nuclear war, says Mike Moore, editor of the group’s magazine, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The clock until last week had stood for a while at 14 minutes to midnight – then the group decided to move it up to 9 minutes to midnight. This reflects the fact that “the arms reduction process between the U.S. and Russia has stalled and that United Nations peacekeeping efforts in recent years haven’t proven very effective,” Moore says.
It also reflects recent events in South Asia. What happened there? What does it mean?
In May, in a dangerous game of one-upmanship, India and Pakistan tested several nuclear devices. (They claim to have detonated 11 bombs between them, but international seismic equipment failed to register ground movement during several of the tests, perhaps indicating that both sides exaggerated their claims.)
The world’s official nuclear powers – the U.S., Britain, France, China and Russia – united to condemn the tests, but some fear Pakistan and India may remain defiant. If either “deploys,” or attaches its nuclear devices to missiles, experts believe nuclear war could break out. (Recent unconfirmed reports stated that the Pakistanis were preparing to test a nuclear warhead on a missile.)
Although serious, this is not the first time the world has been faced with a threat of nuclear war. In fact, the nuclear arms race between the U.S. and Russia during the “Cold War” (1945-1991) was a far more dangerous time, Moore says. In 1953, shortly after the Russians and the U.S. tested the hydrogen bomb, the Doomsday Clock was set at 2 minutesto midnight!
Although both superpowers have since signed treaties to reduce their nuclear arsenals, critics claim neither is walking the walk of nuclear disarmament. Because of this, the Atomic Scientists still feel that the “tensions between the U.S. and Russia are more a matter of real concern” than the situation in South Asia, Moore says. (Although the former Soviet Union is splintered and Russia itself in economic crisis, it’s still a formidable nuclear power.)
India has the materials to build maybe 100 nuclear weapons, Pakistan 10 to 20, Moore says. On the other hand, he says, the U.S. and Russia “between them have 34,000 nuclear weapons in various conditions of readiness. And each side has more than 10,000 modern weapons.”
Still, some nuclear experts fear that because India and Pakistan share a border, a devastating nuclear strike could be made by either side in a matter of minutes with little or no warning.
A 1992 U.S. Air Force study projected that a nuclear battle between India and Pakistan would likely kill 100 million people and spread radioactive fallout over much of Southeast Asia and China.
One would think such dire predictions would convince leaders of both countries that no one could win such a war.
But relations between India and Pakistan are defined by decades of bad feeling and bloodshed. Over the past 50 years, Pakistan and India have fought three wars over disputed lands. Several of those battles continue today.
Moore, who says neither India nor Pakistan is a “rogue” nation (one that cares nothing for world opinion), believes calmer heads will prevail. Pakistan has even offered to join in peace talks with India. Neither country has a robust economy, and an arms race would be a drain. So are U.S. economic sanctions forbidding U.S. foreign aid and weapons sales.
“These are responsible nuclear threshold states. So unless someone makes a mistake…” says Moore, pausing in recognition of the fact that even the smallest mistake in nuclear terms can be devastating for the human race.
President Clinton best summed up the worldwide disbelief and condemnation over the India-Pakistan debacle when he said: “I cannot believe that we are about to start the 21st Century by having the Indian subcontinent repeat the worst mistakes of the 20th Century.”
9 MINUTES AND COUNTING?
The closer the hands of the Doomsday Clock are to midnight. The greater, the risk of nuclear war. Scientists decided last week to move its hand ahead 5 minutes. It’s not at 9 minutes to midnight.
