As the Cubs head into the stretch run of their most memorable season in a decade, these are the magic numbers dancing in the eyes of Sammy Sosa:
38-15-1.
Thirty-eight games. Fifteen home runs. One chance at immortality.
Time is dwindling in the great chase to exceed Roger Maris’ single-season record of 61 homers, and baseball’s “Bat Pack,” the esteemed trio of Sosa, Mark McGwire and Ken Griffey Jr., is each going through different kinds of pressure as each tries to reach the legendary mark.
Sosa hit his 47th Sunday, tying McGwire for the major-league lead and remaining on pace to tie Maris’ mark. Sosa insisted Sunday he doesn’t feel any pressure, which, if true, would make him just about the coolest cucumber on the grocer’s shelf.
“Home runs come in bunches,” Sosa said. “I know I’m not going to hit a home run every day. I don’t look at it as if I have 38 games left. I look at it as if I have a month and a half to go. A lot of things can happen in a month and a half.”
If Sosa keeps up with Maris’ pace and the Cubs continue to hang in the wild-card chase, it could come down to this scenario: The Cubs are tied for the wild-card lead on the final game of the season in Houston. Sosa is tied with Maris at 61 home runs.
Does Sosa go for the home run record that day, knowing he may never get the opportunity to do it again? Or does he try to get on base any way possible, knowing he’ll see few quality pitches in the first place?
“If that day comes, I will decide then what to do,” Sosa said. “Right now I’m not thinking about it. If you go to home plate thinking about it, you’re going to overswing. If you go out trying just to make good contact, if you have that in your mind, you can hit home runs. I won’t overswing. That’s what happens to a lot of players.”
Can Sosa do it?
A statistical analysis of Sosa’s recent hitting trends, his career numbers against the Cubs’ remaining opponents, and his numbers in day vs. night games, home vs. road games and grass vs. artificial turf games suggest it is within reason to believe he can.
Fifteen home runs in 38 games? Sosa hit 21 homers in a 30-day span from May 25-June 23, the most during any 30-day span in history. During that span he hit 20 in the month of June, setting another major-league record.
Sosa averaged a home run for every 5.7 at-bats that month. But even since the end of June, Sosa has continued to hit home runs at a brisk clip.
From July 1 through Sunday, Sosa hit 14 home runs in 160 at-bats, an average of one home run for every 11.4 at-bats. If you allow for four at-bats per game for the rest of the season, Sosa will receive 152 more at-bats to hit 15 homers and break Maris’ mark. That means he needs to average one home run for every 10.1 at-bats, a difficult though not impossible task.
Here’s why:
– Sosa is hitting .340 in August, sacrificing his home run totals while trying to get on base and help the team win games. He has averaged one homer for every 10.6 at-bats, slightly above his July pace of 1 for every 11.9 at-bats.
– Sosa is almost twice as likely to homer in a ballpark with a grass field as in one with artificial turf, averaging 1 for every 9.6 at-bats on grass and 1 for every 14.8 at-bats on turf. The Cubs have only eight games remaining on artificial turf, as opposed to 30 on grass, giving him another advantage.
– Sosa is almost twice as likely to homer in night games than day games, averaging 1 homer for every 7.8 at-bats at night and 1 for every 13.4 at-bats during the day. He also hits .343 at night as opposed to .284 in the daytime.
– Sosa has similar home run ratios at home and on the road, averaging 1 for every 9.3 at-bats at Wrigley Field and one for every 11.8 at-bats on the road. The Cubs have 18 home games remaining and 20 on the road.
Whenever Sosa comes to the plate at Wrigley Field the rest of the year, he is certain to receive a long and loud ovation, no matter how he is faring in the race. It would only be human nature for Sosa to want to return the favor by belting one all the way to Uptown in every at-bat at Wrigley.
“To tell you the truth, I don’t feel I have to do anything,” Sosa said. “I just have to keep playing the way I’ve been playing. Everyone knows when I’m in there and seeing the pitch good and being disciplined, something good is going to happen. Maybe not right away, but soon. I’m on the top of my game. When you’re on the top of your game, you don’t worry about anything.”
Other factors to consider in Sosa’s run at 61 include Coors Field, Cal Eldred, the Astros’ staff and the lingering effects of El Nino:
– Sosa has six home runs this year off of Milwaukee pitching, including three off of Eldred on June 15 at Wrigley Field. The Cubs have five games left against the Brewers, and perhaps one or two against Eldred. Whether Eldred would ever give Sosa another pitch to hit is another question altogether.
– Throughout his National League career, the two teams Sosa has traditionally hit the best against are Colorado (a .322 average) and San Diego (.353). The Cubs have a four-game series at Coors Field from Aug. 27-31, which should be a good chance for Sosa to hit at least a couple against the staff that is second-to-last in the league in home runs allowed. Sosa has averaged a home run for every 12.6 career at-bats against the Rockies, and one for every 12.1 career at-bats against the Padres.
– The Cubs also have six games left with Houston, the team against which Sosa has the least amount of success. He came into Sunday with a .186 career average against Astros pitching and only 10 home runs, an average of 1 for every 26.4 at-bats, before cranking out No. 47 off of Sean Bergman in the fourth inning.
– Due in part to El Nino, the wind has blown out at Wrigley Field in only 14 of the Cubs’ 63 home games, which makes Sosa’s 25 homers at Wrigley even more impressive than at first glance. Will the trend continue? And if Sosa is as hot as he has been since June, does it really matter where he’s hitting?
“It doesn’t matter what park I’m in,” Sosa said. “I hit better against some teams than others. But when you know you hit better against some teams, sometimes you think about it too much. Remember I’m going to be in Coors Field, but I don’t want to think about it now when it’s over a week away. I’m in Houston, and I’m thinking Houston. I’ll think about Coors Field when I’m there.”
