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In California wine country, it looks like the harvest may have a happy ending. Troubled by rain and unpredictable weather, the 1998 growing season has been an adventure, to say the least, for growers and vintners. Just three weeks ago, it appeared the harvest might never end, as sugar levels in the grapes were very low. However, the warm (mid 70s) and dry weather since has helped ripen grapes and ease growers’ concerns. Though many cabernet sauvignon grapes are still a week away from optimal ripeness, the worst seems to be over, barring any more late-season rain.

The crop will be 20 percent to 50 percent smaller, depending on grape type and region, but prices won’t necessarily rise, at least in the short term, because 1997 had a record crop.

The best spin on this year’s harvest may come from Fred Peterson, grape grower and winemaker at Peterson Winery in Sonoma’s Dry Creek Valley: “If you believe that the best wines come from years when you pick the grapes at the last possible moment, the potential is there for making incredible wines.”

This year got off to a poor start with the torrential rains caused by El Nino. Although 20 to 30 inches is normal for winter in California wine country, many vineyards received as much as 55 inches of rain in only six weeks. The rain couldn’t damage the dormant vines, but the ground was so cold that they didn’t flower until late May or the first week of June, 2 to 3 weeks late.

Then came the heat in July and August. Warm days help grapes ripen, but temperatures in August jumped above 100 degrees. When it gets that hot, vines often shut down and ripening stops.

But the real bad news came with September’s falling temperatures. Daily readings rarely rose above 70 degrees.

“This was the coolest September I have seen in 25 years out here,” Peterson said. Ripening slowed to a standstill, putting the harvest even further behind. Then, in the last week of September, it began to rain.

The damp promoted the spread of botrytis, a rot that shrinks the grapes. Botrytis is good for those few growers wanting to produce dessert wines from sauvignon blanc, because it concentrates the sugar. But it’s bad news for table wine grapes, such as chardonnay and zinfandel, which were most seriously affected.

So on Oct. 1, things looked gloomy in Napa and Sonoma. Skies were overcast, the temperatures were in the mid 60s and several inches of rain were predicted for the next few days. When the forecast was downgraded to a drizzle later in the day, some wineries decided to wait, believing the grapes could handle a trace of rain. But many wineries, fearful of the spread of botrytis, harvested quite a few tons of chardonnay and merlot. Trucks throughout both regions drove by full of grapes, and growers figured if they were not perfectly ripe, at least they would be free of disease.

The predicted rains never came. The weekend of Oct. 2 was clear and temperatures rose into the 70s and even low 80s. A few cool days followed, but the warm weather came back on Oct. 8. Most important, the rain stayed away, and most chardonnay and sauvignon blanc grapes were picked by the 15th.

Growers want to pick grapes when they reach optimum sugar levels, measured in “degrees Brix.” White grapes usually are picked at a lower Brix than reds, though chardonnay is an exception. Needing 23 or 24 degrees Brix, growers had to wait for warm weather, as readings of 19 and 20 degrees were common in the first week of October. Cabernet sauvignon, which in some years is harvested at 25 degrees Brix, was several weeks away from that stage in early October, and wineries were worried.

One thing working in their favor was cabernet sauvignon’s thick skin, which shrugs off botrytis better than most grapes. Thus wineries could afford to wait on this varietal.

The shortening days of fall become a final obstacle, though. Fewer hours of daylight means the vines’ photosynthesis knocks off earlier in the day, and the vines can’t produce sugar the way they did in July or August.

“The vines are going into a shut-down mode,” said Bob Cabral, winemaker at Williams-Selyem Winery in the Russian River Valley of Sonoma. “They are thinking about survival at this point, not maturing the crop.”

Optimism is peeking through here and there now that disaster has been averted. Cabral says his pinot noir has great flavor and concentration. “I just wish we had more fruit.” Gary Brookman, winemaker at Oakville Ranch Vineyards in Napa Valley, says his estate-grown cabernet sauvignon is “awesome; it looks as good as ever.”

Brookman’s chardonnay in his mountain vineyards, 1,000 feet above the valley floor, ripened well and has been harvested, he said. At Chalk Hill in Sonoma, vineyard manager Mark Lingenfelder expects this year’s chardonnay to approach 13 percent alcohol instead of the usual 13.5 or 13.8. The wine will be lighter in body, but potentially more elegant.

The wineries pray that the good weather holds. “You’re in agriculture,” Brookman says, “so you’ve got to work with what you’ve got. Patience is a real virtue; you can’t panic.”