As 1998 draws to a close, what can the ever-growing legions of airline passengers expect of air travel in 1999?
The airlines claim that next year will bring enhanced services, better frequent-flier programs, even more comfortable Coach seats. Yet many passengers are skeptical about these much-vaunted claims. They expect higher fares, reduced competition and more crowded and uncomfortable flights in 1999. After all, the airline industry is one of the industries Americans love to hate. According to the University of Michigan’s recent American Customer Satisfaction Index, the airline industry now ranks 32nd in customer satisfaction, just ahead of the Internal Revenue Service.
So, between airline press releases and customer skepticism, where does the truth about air travel in 1999 really lie?
Fares
This year, leisure and business fares rose because the economy was strong and air travel boomed. What can we expect in 1999? “Of course, the airlines will try to push fares higher,” says Peggy Kaz, a travel specialist at Beale Travel in Chicago, “and they may succeed, if the economy remains strong, and because all the new alliances may start to reduce competition.”
How much will fares rise? Nobody can say. Of course, unforeseen factors, such as a softening national economy, would probably lead to less demand for leisure and business travel and, therefore, lower fares. That’s equally unpredictable.
Increased competition from low-fare carriers could also reduce airfares out of Chicago. ATA already flies to the West Coast, typically beating American and United on fares. They’re not alone. “Two low-fare airlines, Pro Air and East Wind, recently got slots at New York’s close-in La Guardia Airport, a favorite with business travelers,” says Laurie Berger, editor of Consumer Reports Travel Letter. That could help to reduce the high fares into that airport.
“Then, there’s Southwest Airlines, which already flies into Midway, and is rapidly expanding its presence on the East Coast,” she continues. “Southwest is supposedly going to start service next year into Long Island’s MacArthur Airport. That would be a great benefit for some travelers.”
Comfort and service
More than ever, any discussion of comfort and service in air travel must be separated into two categories — front-of-the-plane and back-of-the-plane — because the airlines’ attitudes and products are so different between front (First and Business Class) and back (Coach).
Next year, U.S. carriers will continue to improve their domestic and international First and Business Class products, because those cabins provide a disproportionate share of airline revenue, particularly on international flights. According to some estimates, Business Class cabins generate a profit on trans-Atlantic flights when only 40 percent of the seats are filled with revenue passengers.
The airlines are responding accordingly. Earlier this year, for example, American Airlines removed 12 Coach seats from its narrow-body MD-80s to increase the number of First Class seats to 20 from 14 on routes, such as Chicago to Los Angeles, that attract a large proportion of high-revenue business travelers. TWA increased the size of its First Class by jamming its Coach seats closer together. Farewell to TWA’s “Comfort Class,” which gave coach passengers greater-than-usual legroom.
In 1999, American and United will roll out major enhancements in the Business and First Class cabins on international flights. In First Class on larger long-haul jets, such as the 777, both airlines will introduce sleeper seats that recline 180 degrees into a flat bed, 6 foot 6 inches in length. (Many international carriers, led by Air France and British Airways, have provided these luxurious seats that turn into sky-beds for the last two years.)
Both American and United are already installing new Business Class seats that have adjustable seat cushions to accommodate passengers of all sizes, more supportive winged headrests, individual reading lights that can be adjusted to focus the light beam in virtually any direction and electric lumbar support that gently exercises the lower back to reduce fatigue.
“On Nov. 10, I flew from Chicago to London on an American 767 with a reconfigured Business Class,” says Peggy Kaz. “The seats were quite nice. And they had a lumbar support that’s out of this world. Coming back to Chicago, the plane’s Business Class cabin had not been upgraded, and the difference in seat comfort was noticeable.”
So, Business and First Class are getting better and better. But what about the Coach cabin where most passengers sit?
Several major carriers, including American, British Airways and United, are introducing new Coach seats on domestic and international jets. The numbers are impressive. During the next five years, United will install 34,000 new coach seats on its domestic planes.
The new seats, the airlines promise, will be much more comfortable than their predecessors. Seats will offer “more living space” according to United. Really?
True, the new seats have been designed for greater ergonomic comfort, with more comfortable seat bottoms, an S-shaped contoured seat back and winged headrests that adjust to different heights and offer greater neck support, particularly during sleep.
But the airlines are not pushing the rows further apart to provide greater legroom for cramped Coach passengers. So how do the seats offer “more living space”? The seats are slimmer than their predecessors, and the lower half of the seat backs are sculpted, so that the passengers in the next row have more room for their knees — an inch more, according to British Airways.
Other than these seemingly better new seats, Coach passengers should not expect any significant improvements in the coming year. As long as the U.S. economy remains vibrant and air travel booms, the Coach cabin is going to remain an over-crowded cattle car, with meager meal services and often-overworked flight attendants.
Rightly or wrongly, most airlines think that Coach passengers care only about price (not comfort and service) on domestic and international flights. In other words, they have made the Coach seat into a commodity that is virtually the same, whether you fly American, United, US Airways or their no-frills brethren like Southwest and AirTrans (formerly ValuJet).
Leisure travelers who want low fares, comfort and service on the same flight are doomed to disappointment. Frequent business travelers, who must buy sky-high mid-week fares and don’t upgrade into the front cabin are in worse shape. Crowded Coach cabins and minimal (if any) meals become an enervating routine for these men and women, not an occasional inconvenience. In many Coach cabins, the seats are so close together that business travelers cannot use a laptop computer on their tray table if the passenger in front has reclined their seat.
Frequent-flier programs
For frequent-flier programs, the news in 1999 is both good and bad. On the plus side, consumers can earn plenty of frequent-flier miles without setting foot on an airplane. Hotels, rent-a-car companies, long-distance telephone carriers and credit card companies all dole out frequent-flier mileage to their customers. Dining plans often give 10 miles for every dollar spent. You can even earn miles by buying stock or getting a mortgage.
There’s even more good news. “Because of merged frequent-flier programs, such as American and US Airways, Delta and United, and Northwest and Continental, passengers will be able to claim a greater array of awards,” says Laurie Berger of the Consumer Reports Travel Letter. “At American and US Air, for example, you typically earn miles on the separate carriers, but you can pull miles from both programs for an award on one of the programs. Say you only have a few miles on US Air, and you’re a few thousand miles short for an award on American, you can pool the two.”
Now for the bad news. Because people are earning more miles than ever before, and sometimes (though American and US Air are more the exception than the rule) combining miles from two programs to claim an award from one airline, many airlines are raising the “price” of awards in 1999. An American Airlines round-trip domestic upgrade, for example, will require 30,000 miles starting Feb. 1, up from 20,000 miles in 1998. A pair of American Airlines Business Class tickets to Europe will cost 160,000 miles starting Feb. 1, up from 140,000 this year.
Finally, travelers using frequent-flier mileage to purchase a free ticket or upgrade will probably have a harder time getting a seat on their desired flight. The airlines aren’t going to give away freebies when they can sell that seat. The airlines set aside only so many award seats or upgrade for each flight, and usually it’s first come, first served.
When you travel will have a profound effect on availability. A free ticket from Chicago to London on American, British Airways or United is going to be much harder to get for a Friday afternoon flight in June than for a Tuesday flight in January. Thanks to sophisticated computer systems, airlines predict how many seats will sell on a particular flight on a particular day, and they adjust their frequent-flier award inventories accordingly.
So, travelers need to be flexible when they claim an award. You might have to forego a preferred flight in favor of an earlier or later one. Above all, be positive. Remember, you’re flying for free.
Alliances
This year, virtually every U.S. carrier entered into (or expanded) alliances with other domestic and foreign airlines. The Oneworld Alliance, for example, has five members: American Airlines, British Airways, Canadian Airways, Cathay Pacific and Qantas. In 1999, the globe-encircling six-member Star Alliance (Air Canada, Lufthansa, SAS, Thai Airlines, United Airlines, and Varig) will gain three new members: Air New Zealand, ANA of Japan, and Ansett Australia.
A Oneworld’s press release claims that alliances offer “an unprecedented level of support to travelers . . . superior, seamless service . . . global networks.”
Industry observers are more cautious. “Although nobody can predict every detail, you can view these alliances as a ladder toward mergers,” says Berger.
“First, and most benign, are the frequent-flier program alliances,” she continues. “The second rung is code-sharing,” where one airline (typically a carrier which does not offer service to a domestic or foreign destination) sells seats on the other carrier’s connecting flight and puts its own two-letter code onto these packaged flights in the computer reservation system. Thus, the first airline can sell its customers these code-sharing flights and claim to offer improved service with new routes and destinations. The second carrier, which is the code-share partner, gains new customers from the other airline.
“The third rung, which we are seeing now,” she concludes, “is the mega-alliance, which includes joint frequent-flier programs, code-sharing and a slew of joint-marketing activities, such as coordinating schedules and operations. These alliances are a great way to merge without going through the political and legal rigmarole of a legal merger.”
What do these alliances mean for travelers? Will it be the “superior, seamless travel” that the airlines claim? Or will the alliances, as some observers fear, inevitably lead to reduced competition and higher fares? We’ll know the answer this time next year.
