Everything will finally be decided Sunday night, at the latest glittery, overlong edition of the Academy Award ceremonies. But until then, this year’s Oscar race remains the most uncertain, hotly contested and, in many ways, most exciting in years — with many races wide open and few categories offering sure bets.
How can you predict the unpredictable? By diving right in. Here is a brief primer on the major nominees, with one critic’s pick of winners in each category (indicated with –) .
BEST PICTURE
“Elizabeth”: A flashy revisionist history of England’s Elizabeth I — with the lusty young woman turning into a Virgin Queen. “Elizabeth’s” best prize shot lies with its stellar queen, Best Actress nominee Cate Blanchett.
“Life Is Beautiful”: Roberto Benigni’s poignant comedy about a Jewish father trying to shield his small son from the reality of Holocaust horrors by pretending the concentration camp routine is a game. “Life” mixes romantic farce and historical tragedy so artfully it became a huge hit and much loved film at this year’s Academy screenings. Probably not enough, though, to overcome the “Best Picture” hurdle of subtitles.
— “Saving Private Ryan”: Steven Spielberg’s transformation from box-office king to serious filmmaker didn’t stop audiences from flocking to this technically magnificent World War II epic about a troubled post D-Day mission to rescue the last survivor of a family of soldier/brothers. A prohibitive Oscar favorite up until the release of “Shakespeare in Love,” it still has the legs to win.
“Shakespeare in Love”: A witty, dazzling high comedy ode to the stage, set during frantic rehearsals for the first production of “Romeo and Juliet” and including a fiery romance between Will Shakespeare and his leading actor/actress Viola. This incandescent film flatters the intelligence of Oscar voters and appeals to their love of theater. It could very well knock off “Private Ryan.”
“The Thin Red Line”: Critics and moviemakers loved it, but audiences didn’t warm to this beautifully shot, action-packed, dreamlike yet all-too-allusive Terrence Malick film of James Jones’ ultrarealistic Guadalcanal battle novel. The nomination is its prize.
BEST ACTOR
— Roberto Benigni, “Life Is Beautiful”: “Chaplinesque” is the word for Benigni’s buoyant comic/tragic performance (winner of Screen Actors’ Guild honors) as bookseller Guido, a seraphic clown trapped in Nazi hell.
Tom Hanks, “Saving Private Ryan”: Hanks was never more the modern Jimmy Stewart than here: as the tough, vulnerable, war-weary, duty-bound Capt. Miller. But two Best Actor Oscars already since 1993 handicap his current chances.
Ian McKellen, “Gods and Monsters”: This is the sort of literate, pungent role Oscar voters love: a forgotten, dying gay movie director with an acerbic tongue. And McKellen was a clear favorite until Benigni’s surprise Screen Actor’s Guild win.
Nick Nolte, “Affliction”: Nolte’s ultimate portrayal of crippled machismo. Wade Whitehouse is a small-town cop sliding into madness as his family and world falls apart. But the icy, anguished world of novelist Russell Banks and filmmaker Paul Schrader may be too bleak for older voters.
Edward Norton, “American History X”: Hot, publicity-shunning Norton did wonders with this showy, hard-edged role as a California racist Nazi street gang fighter trying to mend his ways. The nomination was a shock; a win would be cardiac arrest material.
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, “Elizabeth”: Winner of many critics’ awards, Blanchett’s Queen Bess is defiantly feminist and anti-traditional, an openly sexual, brainy, passionate romantic who becomes even sterner stuff to triumph in a corrupt world. The contest is between her and Paltrow, and it might be “Elizabeth’s” only win.
Fernanda Montenegro, “Central Station”: A heartwarmingly true and touching portrayal of old age and poverty, Montenegro’s feisty Brazilian letter-writer Dora — a lonely woman helping a motherless boy find his long-absent father — transcends language.
— Gwyneth Paltrow, “Shakespeare in Love”: Paltrow’s blazing star turn as impish Elizabethan aristocrat Viola, who disguises herself as a lower-class boy-actor playing Juliet and then Romeo for lover Will Shakespeare, is a complex part made lighter than air. It is a role — and almost a performance — worthy of the young Kate Hepburn.
Meryl Streep, “One True Thing”: As the dying homebound mother who rekindles warmth with her convention-shunning career woman daughter, Streep has devastating scenes. But she’s a two-time winner and Kate is more a large supporting role than substantial lead.
Emily Watson, “Hilary and Jackie”: How memorably Watson plays real-life star classical cellist Jacqueline Du Pre, a mercurial genius prey to emotional bullying and breakdowns. She’s tremendous, but her film has a lower profile than its competition.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
James Coburn, “Affliction.” As Nolte’s brutal dad, Coburn created a classically evil, stone-cold patriarch. But the film is too bleak and his competition too strong.
Robert Duvall, “A Civil Action”: Previous Best Actor (“Tender Mercies”) winner Duvall plays wily corporate lawyer Jerome, a deceptively plain-spoken conniver who outwits John Travolta in court. It’s a great performance (winner of the Screen Actor’s Guild prize), but so are the others.
Ed Harris, “The Truman Show”: A magnetic star turn as Christof, the manipulative TV producer who masterminds the reality TV show in which Jim Carrey’s Truman is unknowingly trapped. This might be “Truman’s” only award; Harris himself is much-admired and overdue.
Geoffrey Rush, “Shakespeare in Love”: As the desperate and unscrupulous theater impresario Philip Henslowe behind “Romeo and Juliet,” Best Actor winner Rush (“Shine”) does a consummate job. But it’s a comic performance and not a show-stopper.
— Billy Bob Thornton, “A Simple Plan”: As the slow-talking small town loser ensnared in a doomed scheme to keep the loot from a shady plane crash, Thornton gives the most stunning of the five performances, moving from near farce to tears. But can he overcome “Plan’s” low visibility?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kathy Bates, “Primary Colors”: As the salty but steadfast political operative for a Clintonesque candidate, Bates stole this mediocre show. She’s also the only American nominee and a Screen Actor’s Guild winner. If there is a “Shakespeare in Love” backlash, she’ll be the first beneficiary.
Brenda Blethyn, “Little Voice”: Playing the tyrannical and overbearing mom of a prodigious and shy young singer/impersonator, Blethyn was coarser and blowzier than her much-admired role in “Secrets & Lies.”
— Judi Dench, “Shakespeare in Love”: With eight minutes of screen time as a regal but wry Elizabeth I, Dench dominates one of the year’s best-loved, best-cast films, supplying the perfect capper for a grand show. A compensation factor: She should have won Best Actress last year for “Mrs. Brown.”
Rachel Griffiths, “Hilary and Jackie”: Griffith’s long-suffering Hilary, the more settled but musically unsuccessful sister of Jackie Du Pre, is impressive, sensitive, restrained. But the film hasn’t caught fire.
Lynn Redgrave, “Gods and Monsters”: Redgrave is almost unrecognizable as stern, compassionate German housekeeper Hanna; it is a mannered but likable job. Yet it’s said her recent eccentric public appearances have helped fritter away an early lead.
BEST DIRECTOR
Roberto Benigni, “Life Is Beautiful”: Exhilarating comic timing, blithe fantasy, much heart.
— Steven Spielberg, “Saving Private Ryan”: Absolute technical mastery, emotional depth, state-of-the-art storytelling.
John Madden, “Shakespeare in Love.” A whirligig of wit, color, ensemble brilliance, sizzling stagecraft.
Terrence Malick, “The Thin Red Line.” More poetic (and confusing) than Speilberg’s WWII tale, more anti-war, daringly offbeat and philosophically ambitious.
Peter Weir, “The Truman Show.” Weir gets just the right bright, ironic tone for this cautionary sci-fi media tale.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“Central Station,” (Walter Salles, Brazil): A road movie about an old woman and a boy searching for home and family: neo-realist pathos mixed with picaresque humor.
“Children of Heaven,” (Majid Majidi, Iran): More modern neo-realism; compassionately examining the urban poor in a stirring tale of lost shoes and a children’s race.
“The Grandfather,” (Jose Luis Garci, Spain): Previous Oscar winner Garci (1983’s “To Begin Again”) crafts another polished family melodrama.
— “Life Is Beautiful,” Italy: Benigni’s controversial but moving story of familial love, fantastic escapes and the Holocaust,
“Tango,” (Carlos Saura, Argentina): Fiery music and romance from a master of dance films.
BEST SCREENPLAY (WRITTEN DIRECTLY FOR THE SCREEN)
Warren Beatty and Jeremy Pikser, “Bulworth”: Biting, risky political satire.
Vincenzo Cerami and Roberto Benigni, “Life Is Beautiful”: A comic fantasia turned tragedy, built for Benigni’s special gifts.
Robert Rodat (and uncredited help from Frank Darabont and Scott Frank), “Saving Private Ryan”: “Seven Samurai” meets “A Walk in the Sun”; solidly crafted, humane WWII ensemble drama with soaring battle scenes.
— Marc Norman and Tom Stoppard, “Shakespeare in Love”: Wit, ingenuity, literacy, passion, deliciously corny puns: a theatrical/historical feast.
Andrew Niccol, “The Truman Show.” A cold, bright, pungent fable of life vs. media cliches.
BEST SCREENPLAY (BASED ON MATERIAL PREVIOUSLY PRODUCED OR PUBLISHED)
Bill Condon, “Gods and Monsters”: Character study of 1931’s “Frankenstein” director James Whale, with erotic undercurrents and grand guignol hints.
Scott Frank, “Out of Sight”: Elmore Leonard’s novel skillfully compressed and politically corrected.
Elaine May, “Primary Colors”: Joe Klein’s trashy roman a clef about the 1992 Clinton campaign gets better than it deserves from pro’s pro May.
Scott B. Smith, “A Simple Plan”: Smith turns his novel into a masterly dramatic thriller about ordinary folks and small town crime gone awry.
— Terrence Malick, “The Thin Red Line”: James Jones’ big-canvas WWII classic imbued with a sensitivity and spirit the original lacked.
Other nominees:
Cinematography: Conrad L. Hall, “A Civil Action”; Remi Adefarasin, “Elizabeth”; Janusz Kaminski, “Saving Private Ryan”; Richard Greatrex, “Shakespeare in Love”; John Toll, “The Thin Red Line.”
Art direction: “Elizabeth,” “Pleasantville,” “Saving Private Ryan,” “Shakespeare in Love,” “What Dreams May Come.”
Sound: “Armageddon,” “The Mask of Zorro,” “Saving Private Ryan,” “Shakespeare in Love,” “The Thin Red Line.”
Sound effects editing: “Armageddon,” “The Mask of Zorro,” “Saving Private Ryan.”
Projected winners in other categories:
Original song: “When You Believe” from “The Prince of Egypt,” Stephen Schwartz; original musical or comedy score: “The Prince of Egypt,” Stephen Schwartz and Hans Zimmer; original dramatic score: “Life Is Beautiful,” Nicola Piovani; costume: “Shakespeare in Love”; documentary feature, “The Last Days”; documentary (short subject): “The Personals: Improvisations on Romance in the Golden Years”; film editing: “Saving Private Ryan”; makeup: “Elizabeth”; animated short film: “Bunny”; live-action short film: “Victor”; and visual effects: “What Dreams May Come.”
