Everyone loves a winner. Nowhere is this more true than at the racetrack, where handicapping, or separating the winners from the stiffs, is practiced daily with varying degrees of success.
Methods of selection run the gamut from those based on logic and analysis of past performances to those relying on random chance, lucky numbers or colors.
Now that the thoroughbred season is underway at Sportsman’s Park, and with the May 1 running of the Kentucky Derby, I’d like to offer a few techniques that have served this professional handicapper well.
You bet
There is a lot going on in a short period of time at the track. This can be especially disconcerting for a newcomer, but there are a few key things to pay attention to.
The tote board in the middle of the infield displays the totals of all the money that has been bet on all the horses. More importantly, it displays the totals individually, for each horse, as a number that reflects what you will get paid if your horse wins. Single numbers are displayed as a ratio per each dollar bet. Thus, if you see a 5, this means you will get $5 for every dollar bet (plus your dollar back), a 12, $12; 15, $15 … and so on. Numbers such as 9/2 or 7/2 represent 4 1/2-to-1 and 3 1/2-to-1, respectively. The odds of 9/5 pay $1.80 to 1; 8/5, $1.60 to 1.
Odds change constantly from the time the betting opens until the race starts. If a lot of people like a certain horse, his odds will become shorter, and he will pay less if he wins; the odds on the other horses will increase in response. It all balances, and all the money that is bet in is paid back to the bettors, minus the percentage taken out by the track and the government. This cut is established by law, and generally runs between 17 and 25 percent.
The odds are the most important factor in determining who you bet in each race. To picture how it works, imagine that you are in a grocery store and they are changing the prices of the goods every two minutes. If they were offering hamburger meat in the $400-$500 a pound range, you wouldn’t buy. How about if T-bone steaks were 29-39 cents a pound? You’d get all you could. When you place a bet at the racetrack, you are buying an interest in a particular horse winning. The goal is to buy the ticket not only on the right horse, but also at the right price.
Which is steak?
Which is hamburger?
To try to determine who is going to win today, we look at the previous races each horse has run. A summary of is printed in the Daily Racing Form.
Let’s look at the key factors I use to unearth winners.
Races are offered for horses of various skill levels. The trainers determine which level they feel their charge will be competitive at and have a chance to win.
“Class handicapping” notes that horses successful at a certain level fail when moving up to a higher class than they have been competing in. The converse can also be true.
The range of ability for trainers runs from the totally incompetent to the superstars. The winning percentage for each trainer on the grounds appears in the Form and also in the track program. Typically, the best trainers at the meeting are in the 20 percent (or above) win range. If you are a casual fan, you will do best to stay with the proven winning trainers.
Speed wins
How do you know a fast horse when you see one? Handicappers have developed speed ratings, which try to set a single number to describe a horse’s individual speed.
Here’s he nickel course in how to interpret the numbers:
1. A horse with consistently higher numbers than the competition is the fastest in the race.
2. A horse with steadily increasing numbers can be expected to continue to improve.
3. A horse with declining numbers could be expected to continue to decline.
4. A single high or low number could be viewed as an aberration, due to track bias (on some days certain parts of the track are better than other parts), or a troubled trip.
And now, some direction signs on the road to the Winner’s Circle.
Lasix basics
Lasix is an approved drug administered to horses that have been observed bleeding from the lungs due to the stress of racing.
Horses receiving Lasix for the first time are supposed to be noted in the track program, but pay attention to late announcements at the track. Horses running on Lasix for the first time often improve, as any trouble they had breathing is now gone.
Early speed
A horse that has shown consistent early speed (or gate speed) has a distinct advantage over competitors.
Some horses will run big when owning an uncontested early lead but will fold under pressure, or “spit the bit,” when challenged. The jockey of a horse loose on the lead often slows the pace so his mount has energy to keep the lead.
Check past performances. If a horse has a bunch of ones at the first call and nobody else does, you have a contender. If he has proven that he fades when challenged, you have a potential throw-out when there are other early-speed types in the race.
If there are several early speedsters, check the individual first quarter times for each horse — one is usually faster than the others.
Another likely indicator of early speed comes when a horse is stretching out from a sprint (7 furlongs or less, a furlong being one-eighth of a mile) to a route (1 mile or more). Sprinters are used to going fast quickly, and may easily outbreak a field of horses conditioned for stamina by competing in longer races.
Notable changes
Note a switch from a jockey who wins in the 3-4 percent range to one of the top jocks on the grounds, especially if the horse has not shown much form up until now. The best jocks want to ride winners, and you have to take a closer look at a horse when there is a change of this type.
The addition of blinkers to the horse’s equipment is another powerful indicator of improved performance.
Trouble notes
In the Daily Racing Form as well as the track program, there is a brief comment on any trouble the horse may have experienced in a race. Statements such as “bumped,” “forced out,” “raced wide,” “used early” and “bled,” among others, can be used to excuse a poor performance.
On the other hand, many handicappers will put too much weight on the horse’s last outing and won’t look deeper to determine its true form. This can be costly if the horse did have a legitimate excuse in its last race.
Breeding counts
Some students of breeding overemphasize a horse’s parentage, but a knowledge of breeding can lead to cashing a ticket.
When a horse is being asked to do something for the first time, knowing what his parents have done on the track, and more importantly, knowing if they have passed that ability on to other offspring, can give a clue to the horse’s performance today. One example of such a situation is a switch to turf racing for the first time, as a handful of sires produce most of the horses that love to run on grass.
Almost as good is the situation where the track is muddy. Some horses prefer the slop and produce colts and fillies that love it, too.
FAQs
1. Are the races fixed?
As in any business where a lot of money is at stake, individuals and groups will be tempted to be dishonest.
With computers, suspicious betting patterns can be isolated and stops put on individual tickets if wrongdoing is uncovered. This acts as a deterrent, as there’s no point in fixing a race if you can’t profit from it.
As for policing the races themselves, officials appointed by the state and the tracks are supposed to safeguard the integrity of racing. They do a pretty good job. Every now and then they find a jockey with a battery (an electronic device used to stimulate a horse) and ban him from the sport, or they suspend a trainer when a prohibited substance is found in his horse’s bloodstream in post-race testing.
2. Is weight a handicapping factor?
Not much. Some people believe an increase in the weight the horse is forced to carry will slow it down, which at first glance makes sense. But after reviewing the results of thousands of races, people with a lot of spare time have found the horses with the highest weights win the majority of the races.
That’s because horses that have been unsuccessful carry less weight than horses that have recently been winning — in an effort to even things out. But the winners tend to remain winners, and the bums tend to remain bums.
One final analogy: Suppose you are carrying a 5-pound sack of potatoes home from the grocery store. If you add one more potato to the sack, does it make a difference? A horse weighs nearly a ton, most of it muscle. A couple of pounds one way or the other is virtually meaningless.
3. How important is the jockey?
Much less important than the horse.
The best jockeys are thinking, planning, anticipating and diligent students of the game. The worst are just along for the ride, and in fact can hinder a horse’s performance by inept actions and poor judgment. The better jockeys get the better mounts, as the trainers, after working hard to get a horse ready to win, want to give it every advantage.
There are not a lot of great jockeys for the same reason there is only one Sammy Sosa. A jockey is an athlete playing one of the toughest and most dangerous games in the world. If you find one who has not had a serious injury, he or she is just starting out.
The Four Commandments
1. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Only 5 percent of racegoers win at the track. Probably the same percentage are habitual losers with gambling problems. The remaining vast majority are fans of the game, winning sometimes, losing a little more often, but loving the sport as entertainment or for the challenges and rewards of trying to pick a winner.
This is supposed to be fun. Even if you win, you are unlikely to win enough to retire on unless you are very old.
2. Never bet a horse at less than even money.
In the long run, there is just too much that can go wrong in a race to accept short odds.
I could have made this rule “Never bet a lot to win a little,” which speaks to the same issue. Be sure to get value for your bets.
3. Don’t bet every race.
You’ll do well to win with a third of your picks, but the money bet on picks you don’t feel strongly about and in which you are not surprised when the horses lose is the biggest chunk of your potential profit. You lose twice: You lose your money right away, and you don’t have it in your pocket when a horse you really like comes along.
Even if you are a $2 bettor, it’s better to pass four races and bet $10 on a horse you really like than to bet four races you don’t care about and have only $2 left for your best bet of the day.
4. Don’t take tips from touts.
It is rare for someone to know for sure that a horse is going to win. If he is a stranger, it’s odds-on that he’s not going to tell you.
The only exception to this is if you are a personal friend of an owner or trainer, but even then, many of them are extreme optimists. We’d all like to see our friends do well, but when betting, check it out in the past performances, or get a really good story.
