With the economy growing as in few other times, people are willing to make a few more bets on what the future will bring. The California wine business is no different.
In the last 10 years, California growers have planted more than 200,000 new acres of vineyards, over three-quarters of them wine grapes (as opposed to grapes for eating, or turning into raisins). As you might expect, chardonnay and the other so-called “international” varieties lead the pack, and it looks like they are here to lead for a long time. As you might not expect, more and more of them are being planted in the desert.
The 1998 grape acreage report, just released by the California Agricultural Statistics Service, details which varieties were planted where, making the report a good indicator of grape variety popularity. It’s also a rough prediction of what you’ll be drinking in the coming years.
The report also offers a manifold statement about wine trends, wine economics and even about surveys themselves.
This will come as no surprise to those who keep even a lazy eye on the subject, but chardonnay, cabernet sauvignon and merlot have seen tremendous increases in their acreages in the last 10 years. In that period, these three varieties have increased at over twice the rate of wine grapes in general. Three other high-end grape varieties–pinot noir, cabernet franc and sauvignon blanc–have increased by 70 percent in the same period. This phenomenon isn’t limited to California; these varieties also show incredible growth in southern France, Chile, Argentina, Australia and South Africa.
Can these grapes maintain their hot streak? California growers are betting they will. You can see this in the relatively high percentages of “non-bearing” acreage devoted to popular varieties: The amount of land that growers are willing to tie up for three years (the time it takes a new vine to produce a decent crop in California) is a good indicator of growers’ faith in continued demand for that variety. For instance, 6 percent of the state’s grenache acreage is non-bearing, well below the 20 percent average for all grapes. Obviously, growers don’t think grenache will be a trendy grape and hence have planted little of it recently. (In California, grenache is mainly used for jug wines, so the low number says something about where that category is, as well.)
Conversely, merlot’s non-bearing acreage stands at 32 percent. Even though the grape has been extremely popular for the last 5 years or so, growers are betting on continued growth. The non-bearing acreage of chardonnay is 24 percent; of cabernet sauvignon, 33 percent.
For those who love these wines, this is good news. But those bored by their omnipresence can take heart. For other grapes, the so-called “Mediterranean grapes”–varieties that originated not in Bordeaux or Burgundy but rather in southern France, Italy and Spain–have shown even greater growth, albeit from a small base.
Viognier (47 percent non-bearing), roussanne and syrah (72 percent each) and sangiovese (60 percent) seem to have won the confidence of more than a few growers. Tempranillo, known in California as valdepenas (26 percent), nebbiolo (22 percent) and dolcetto (49 percent) are also not widely planted but are catching some farmers’ eyes.
And believe it or not, the grape you most likely associate with waiting for a seat at an Italian restaurant–the pinot grigio–has a non-bearing percentage of 63. Whether under this, or its French designation, pinot gris, this grape is stirring interest.
The grape acreage report also has something to say about why some California chardonnays and cabernets cost $50 a bottle and some are less than $10.
Certainly much has to do with what the winemaker does with his grape juice. Parking 20,000 gallons of chardonnay for three months in a large stainless-steel vat will cost less than aging the same amount for a year in flavorful, expensive new French oak barrels.
But a significant factor in a wine’s price is where the grapes grow and what their yields are.
Being originally from Burgundy, a coolish climate, chardonnay performs well in the cooler regions of California. This is why growers have planted 60,000 acres, or 64 percent of California’s total, from Mendocino to Santa Barbara, the north and south coast area. A ton of these chardonnay grapes also costs more than it does elsewhere. Napa Chardonnay, for instance, fetched on average $1,850 in 1998. Yields can get to 6 tons per acre or even more, but self-respecting growers and the winemakers who buy from them aim for 3 tons or less. This, plus the aforementioned French barrels, gives you a $25 chardonnay.
But a close look at the report will show that 25 percent of the state’s chardonnay is planted in the Central Valley, up from 15 percent in 1990. This is like trying to raise penguins in Nicaragua, or cooking a great filet of beef beyond well-done. The Central Valley is a fertilized, irrigated desert where yields can reach 10 tons an acre or more. You want to buy a ton of chardonnay? It will cost you a bargain-basement price of $700.
Twenty-eight percent of the state’s cabernet sauvignon acreage, 37 percent of the merlot and a whopping 49 percent of all the syrah also are planted in the inferno of the Central Valley. This wine will cost you $5 to $10 a bottle and will usually be labeled “California” as opposed to a more specific place-name. The Central Valley also supplies plenty of “filler” wines for producers who want to stretch their coastal product.
Lastly, the report “found” about 92,000 acres. Because there are thousands of growers, and because so many new ones have popped up in the last few years, calculating an accurate total is difficult. In addition, some growers don’t volunteer their acreage figures or fudge on their survey returns because of a time-honored desire not let the government know too much. This year, the statistical service worked some number-crunching magic. Almost 80 percent of the “new” acreage grows wine grapes.
Not that the state figures are the last word: The locals’ estimates are almost always different. The state reports that Santa Barbara County has 11,808 acres under vine. Curtis Sayer of the Santa Barbara Agricultural Commissioner’s Office says the surveys returned to his office show 13,922 acres of grapes in the county as of 1998, or a 15 percent difference. This isn’t the end of it.
If you look at the requests for pesticide applications, which each grower must file with an accurate acreage report, Sayer says, “We come up with 18,183 acres planted in Santa Barbara.” That’s a 35 percent deviation from the state report. Officials in other counties will confirm similar deviations. To paraphrase the sage, “There’s lots more vines in them thar hills.”
Oh, and a last note to gladden chardonnay lovers’ hearts. By Santa Barbara County’s estimates, chardonnay occupies 54 percent of the county’s 13,922 acres. If you go by the pesticide reports, that means there’s probably another 2,300 acres of “found” chardonnay growing in Santa Barbara County alone. You couldn’t ask for a better home for a little extra chardonnay than “Burgundy-by-the- beaches.”
