Since the days of Babe Ruth and Ty Cobb, the key statistics for hitters have been batting average, home runs and runs batted in. That’s no longer true for general managers and personnel men around the major leagues.
This winter they are quick to throw around something called OPS as the ultimate reflection of a hitter’s production. The acronym and the formula are the same: On-base (percentage) plus slugging (percentage). To no one’s great surprise, OPS reveals that Cleveland’s Manny Ramirez (1.105) was the most effective hitter in the American League last year. His counterpart in the National League isn’t quite as apparent.
Was it Mark McGwire? No. Sammy Sosa? No. Chipper Jones? No. It was Larry Walker (1.168), with a big assist from the Kate Moss-like air in Denver. Sosa (1.002) ranked 12th in the major leagues. That’s a lofty ranking, but probably not what you’d expect from a guy with 63 home runs and 141 RBIs.
But if the ranking disappoints Sosa backers, what can you make of Ken Griffey Jr.’s total? With an OPS of .960, the player his peers voted as the best of the 1990s ended the decade as the 21st most productive hitter in the majors.
Griffey was second on the Seattle Mariners–behind Edgar Martinez (1.001), not Alex Rodriguez (.941). There were more than a few surprises among those he trailed. Among them: Pittsburgh’s Brian Giles (1.032), Philadelphia’s Bobby Abreu (.995), the Yankees’ Derek Jeter (.990), Oakland’s Jason Giambi (.975) and new Red Sox center-fielder Carl Everett (.969).
As spring training approaches, it’s worth considering the 1999 OPS of the hitters who will go to spring training with the Cubs and White Sox. It should be to no one’s surprise that it shows the relative depth of hitters on the South Side.
The Sox have eight hitters–including catching surprise Brook Fordyce and embattled third baseman Greg Norton–ranked ahead of No. 5 on the Cubs’ list, who isn’t who anyone would expect. It’s 37-year-old backup catcher Jeff Reed, who has never driven in more than 47 runs in a season. Yes, Reed was a more effective hitter last year than five players who are currently projected for the starting lineup.
Only one thing can be said about that fact: Yikes!
A look back at ’99 OPS prompts these suggestions about the upcoming baseball season in Chicago:
– The Cubs can count on production in the outfield. Considering the high OPS of Glenallen Hill (.934) and Henry Rodriguez (.925), it’s no wonder Jim Riggleman gave the defensively challenged Sosa 23 starts in center-field last year, allowing him to start both Hill and Rodriguez. It seems a shame to have one of them on the bench every game, but both have platoon differentials of almost 100 points. That would seem to argue against trading one to make the other a full-time left-fielder, but a deeper look suggests the right-handed-hitting Hill might be ready for the extra responsibility. His OPS against right-handers was .923 last year and is a respectable .801 against right-handers over the last five years. With Rodriguez signed only through this season, this would be a good time to move him.
– Carlos Lee’s first full season with the Sox could be a treasure to behold. Lee’s .775 OPS last year was just a tick behind AL Rookie of the Year Carlos Beltran (.791), and quite a bit better than Magglio Ordonez had as a rookie in ’98 (.741). Lee put it together while adjusting to a new position. It bodes well for the future, while the OPS of rookie center-fielder Chris Singleton (.691) hints he could have trouble duplicating his 72-run, 72-RBI performance.
– The Cubs may regret signing 35-year-old catcher Joe Girardi (.625) to a three-year contract. His OPS last year was his lowest since 1992. The Yankees could sacrifice run production for a veteran presence behind the plate, but it’s debatable whether the Cubs can afford such a luxury. Reed (.744) has had at least 250 at-bats for four straight seasons, and that streak probably won’t end.
– Norton (.782) will be a pleasant surprise, especially if Jerry Manuel plays Craig Wilson against left-handers and for late-inning defense. Norton’s ’99 season wasn’t as bad as it seemed at the time. He could have driven in 75-plus runs instead of 50 had he not hit like a zombie with men in scoring position. All he’s lacking is confidence.
-Jose Valentin (.765) will provide a dramatic offensive upgrade at short for the Sox. Although the Brewers deemed Valentin expendable, in part because of erratic fielding, the Sox haven’t had a regular shortstop with such a high OBP since Luis Aparicio (.779) in 1970.
The big gloat: When Jeter gets around to signing the $118 million deal that’s on the table with the Yankees, nobody’s going to be more relieved than Red Sox GM Dan Duquette. While former Seattle GM Woody Woodward was letting Rodriguez position himself for free agency, Duquette locked up Nomar Garciaparra two years ago. Garciaparra, who has outproduced Jeter, has three years left on a $23.25 million deal he signed immediately after his Rookie of the Year season in 1997. Then there are club options for 2003 ($10.5 million) and 2004 ($11.5 million), which leave him tied to Boston for at least five years.
“We’re real happy for Derek Jeter today,” Duquette said. “That’s a nice contract for him. I’m even happier that we have Nomar Garciaparra on our ballclub. There will be an opportunity to address Nomar’s contract in the future. Nomar is the type of player we hope plays his entire career with the Red Sox.”
One that got away: Sure, the White Sox had a great draft in 1999 even if they aren’t able to sign University of Miami shortstop Bobby Hill. They loaded up on power pitchers, adding to the Arms ‘R Us reputation of their farm system. But the risk in not signing Hill is as obvious as the potential of Tigers right-hander Jeff Weaver, who won nine games in his rookie season. Like Hill last year, Weaver was taken among a glut of Sox picks in the ’97 draft–including Jim Parque, Aaron Myette and Jason Dellaero. Weaver’s asking price was deemed too high, and he was allowed to return to Fresno State. It took only six minor-league starts for Weaver to reach the big leagues with Detroit. He was 6-5 with a 3.84 ERA before the All-Star break last year, then predictably ran out of gas.
“He absolutely has the stuff to be a No. 1 starter down the road,” pitching coach Dan Warthen said at a recent mini-camp.
Touching the bases: The Reds seem pretty sure Deion Sanders will come to spring training, where his goal would be to win an extra outfielder’s spot from among a cast that includes Michael Tucker, Alex Ochoa, Chris Stynes and pure-hitting minor-leaguers Mike Frank and Brady Clark. … Has anyone noticed that Harold Baines has 2,783 career hits? If he remains productive for two more years, he’ll be a Hall of Famer.
