Former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley has failed to pick up ground in Illinois in his battle with Vice President Al Gore for the Democratic presidential nomination and Texas Gov. George W. Bush remains an overwhelming favorite among the state’s Republicans, according to a new Tribune poll.
With two months to go before the March 21 Illinois primary, Arizona Sen. John McCain has established himself as Illinois Republicans’ clear second choice to Bush but continues to trail far behind the frontrunner.
At the same time, Bradley’s attempt to mount an insurgent candidacy against Gore, the favorite of Illinois’ Democratic establishment, has gone nowhere so far in the state.
On the eve of Iowa’s presidential caucus on Monday, the Tribune poll of 500 likely Republican voters in neighboring Illinois found Bush with 56 percent and McCain with 14 percent. The remaining candidates were far back with single-digit support.
Talk show host and former ambassador Alan Keyes, with 5 percent, was barely leading the second tier of GOP contenders. Magazine publisher Steve Forbes had 4 percent, activist Gary Bauer had 2 percent and Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch had 1 percent. About 18 percent were undecided, the poll showed.
On the Democratic side, Gore has benefited from immense personal popularity and leads Bradley 53 percent to 27 percent with 20 percent undecided.
Although the contest is expected to tighten as the primary approaches, these results are virtually unchanged from a Tribune poll conducted 2 1/2 months ago.
Among Republican voters, support for Bush in Illinois was down 9 percentage points from a Tribune poll last fall. McCain gained 5 percentage points and the number of undecided Republican voters increased by 5 percentage points.
The results indicated that the drop in Bush’s support was largely due to increased awareness among voters as well as McCain’s efforts to use New Hampshire’s Feb. 1 as a roadblock in front of the Bush express.
But Bush’s popularity among Illinois Republicans remains high.
More than 80 percent of Illinois Republican voters said they believed the two-term Texas governor has the best chance among all the Republican contenders of winning in the Nov. 7 general election. More than three-quarters had a favorable opinion of him.
McCain’s favorability among Illinois Republicans also has grown. A total of 52 percent of Republican voters have a favorable impression of him, up from 36 percent only a few months ago. And 35 percent of Republicans consider McCain a strong second choice for president.
Yet only 5 percent of likely GOP primary voters believe McCain has the best chance in the Republican field for defeating the Democratic nominee.
The economy remains a priority among Illinois voters, with half of Republican respondents saying Bush would be the best candidate to keep the economy growing.
While Bush and McCain have clashed over their competing tax-cut proposals, one-third of the state’s Republican voters don’t know whose plan is better.
But the poll found a potential ideological problem for Republicans as they try not only to recapture the White House but also maintain their hold on both chambers of Congress.
Almost a third of likely Republican primary voters believe that in recent years, the GOP has become too extreme on the issues and out of touch with average Americans.
This attitude is especially apparent among supporters of McCain, who has tried to attract non-traditional voters to the Republican ranks.
Among Democrats, Bradley has seen a slight upsurge in his popularity–but so has Gore.
Fully 71 percent of the state’s Democratic voters have a favorable impression of the vice president, up from 67 percent a few months ago and just behind the 72 percent who give Clinton favorable marks.
Slightly more than half of Democratic voters have a favorable opinion of Bradley, up from 47 percent in the fall poll.
A leading factor in Gore’s advantage over Bradley in Illinois at this point is the support of African-American voters. Black Democrats favor Gore over Bradley 72 percent to 9 percent.
Among white Democrats the race is much closer–45 percent for Gore and 34 percent for Bradley.
The poll results indicate Bradley has picked up support from Democrats who have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton and those who consider themselves independents. But those groups also are among the toughest to get to the polls.
Democrats who are very dedicated primary voters give Gore the advantage over Bradley, 51 percent to 29 percent. And among Democrats who say they regularly follow campaign news, a group that is being courted by Bradley, Gore’s lead expands to 64-23.
Moreover, almost a quarter of Democrats who said that they plan to vote for Bradley believe Gore has the best chance of defeating a Republican opponent in November.
Democrats supporting Gore said the vice president was most qualified for the presidency, would be better for the economy, was the stronger leader of the two candidates and addressed important issues. Those backing Bradley gave him highest marks for leadership and speaking about issues that mattered to them.
If there was any sign of weakness among Gore supporters, it was the indication that one in five would switch their vote to Bradley if he is successful in early primary states like New Hampshire, New York or California.
Among Republicans, only 13 percent of Bush supporters said they would switch to McCain if the Arizona senator won early primaries.
Among all primary voters–Republican and Democrats–49 percent believe Gore’s service as vice president gives him an advantage in the presidential contest, while 42 percent consider it a disadvantage and 9 percent had no opinion.
HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED
The findings of this Tribune poll are based on telephone interviews with two random samples of 500 each.
One sample is Illinois
voters likely to vote in the March 21 GOP primary and the other is voters likely to vote in the Democratic primary.
For samples of these sizes, one can say with 95 percent certainty that results will differ by no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points from results obtained if all likely Illinois voters in each primary were questioned. The margin of potential error for subgroups within the larger samples is greater.
Market Shares Corp. of Mt. Prospect conducted the poll Jan. 13-17.
