Cleveland Indians
Manager: Charlie Manuel.
1999: 97-65, 1st; lost to Boston in first round.
2000 forecast: 1st, lose to Yankees in ALCS.
Starting rotation: Bartolo Colon, Chuck Finley, Charles Nagy, Jaret Wright and Dave Burba.
3-4-5 hitters: Roberto Alomar, Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome.
Closer: Committee headed by Paul Shuey.
X-factor: GM John Hart says he is going to hang on to Ramirez despite his impending free agency, but the development of outfielders Richie Sexson and Alex Ramirez (no relation) could prompt Hart to consider a midseason trade. Best case: Finley and Colon both make a run at 20 victories and Wright bounces back to become a dominator.This could be the best starting pitching they’ve had in their six-year stay atop the Central.
Worst case: The pitching staff stages a season-long rendition of its ’99 playoff collapse. But even then the Indians still would win the Central.
White Sox
Manager: Jerry Manuel.
1999: 75-86, 2nd.
2000 forecast: 2nd.
Starting rotation: Mike Sirotka, Kip Wells, Jim Parque, James Baldwin and Cal Eldred.
3-4-5 hitters: Frank Thomas, Magglio Ordonez and Paul Konerko.
Closer: Bob Howry.
X-factor: Youngsters such as Jon Garland, Aaron Myette and Mark Buehrle may force their way into the starting rotation, allowing GM Ron Schueler to trade Baldwin or Eldred at midseason.
Best case: With Thomas reclaiming his position among baseball’s elite hitters, the Sox have four men drive in 100 runs. Ordonez, Konerko and second-year left-fielder Carlos Lee averaged 94 RBIs last year.
Worst case: Shortstop Jose Valentin fails to stem the flood of unearned runs that buried the young pitching staff the last two seasons. Nothing’s more important for the Sox than moving into the top half of the league’s fielding stats.
Detroit Tigers
Manager: Phil Garner.
1999: 69-92, 3rd.
2000 forecast: 4th.
Starting rotation: Hideo Nomo, Dave Mlicki, Brian Moehler, C.J. Nitkowski and Jeff Weaver.
3-4-5 hitters: Bobby Higginson, Juan Gonzalez and Tony Clark.
Closer: Todd Jones.
X-factor: Comerica Park finally could provide some breathing room for shell-shocked pitching staff that got the yips working at Tiger Stadium.
Best case: Garner breeds confidence into a young team that fell off the charts in ’98 and hasn’t been able to get back up. A rebuilt starting rotation and outfielders Gonzalez and Juan Encarcion make baseball fun again in the Motor City.
Worst case: Gonzalez mopes through the season, complaining about Comerica’s dimensions. GM Randy Smith gambled by trading Gabe Kapler and talented pitchers Justin Thompson and Francisco Cordero to Texas for Gonzalez, who thus far has rejected offers to stay in Detroit.
Kansas City Royals
Manager: Tony Muser.
1999: 64-47, 4th.
2000 forecast: 3rd.
Starting rotation: Jeff Suppan, Jay Witasick, Jose Rosado, Mac Suzuki and Chad Durbin.
3-4-5 hitters: Carlos Beltran, Mike Sweeney and Jermaine Dye.
Closer: Ricky Bottalico.
X-factor: Left-fielder Johnny Damon could be traded during the season as the Royals open up more playing time for terrific young hitters Mark Quinn and Dee Brown. If Damon gets off to a fast start, he could bring a nice return in July.
Best case: Muser gets good seasons out of some members of baseball’s most obscure pitching staff. Rosado and Suppan have double-figure wins.
Worst case: Youngsters such as Dye, Beltran and Carlos Febles go backwards after terrific seasons in ’99. If the Royals don’t score a lot of runs, they could lose 100 games.
Minnesota Twins
Manager: Tom Kelly.
1999: 63-97, 5th.
2000 forecast: 5th.
Starting rotation: Brad Radke, Eric Milton, LaTroy Hawkins, Joe Mays and Sean Bergman.
3-4-5 hitters: Matt Lawton, Butch Huskey, Todd Walker.
Closer: Committee including Eddie Guardado, Bob Wells and Hector Carrasco.
X-factor: What can Twins get for Radke? There seems to be no way to sign Radke, so GM Terry Ryan will deal him before the July 31 deadline. Ryan made a good trade for Chuck Knoblauch under similar distress, getting left-hander Milton and shortstop Cristian Guzman from the Yankees.
Best case: Third baseman Corey Koskie and second baseman Walker bloom into All-Stars as the Twins put the air back into the Metrodome. Kelly’s teams are always sound fundamentally, but run production was so bad last year that it didn’t matter.
Worst case: See 1999.
AL EAST
New York Yankees
Manager: Joe Torre.
1999: 98-64, 1st, defended World Series title.
2000 forecast: 1st, beat Cleveland in ALCS, lose to Mets in World Series.
Starting rotation: Orlando Hernandez, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, David Cone and Ramiro Mendoza.
3-4-5 hitters: Paul O’Neill, Bernie Williams and Tino Martinez.
Closer: Mariano Rivera.
X-factor: What will George Steinbrenner add at midseason–another good starting pitcher or a run-producing left-fielder. Or both? The Yankees made no moves in spring training but will before October.
Best case: Clemens comes roaring back, proving that his inconsistency last season was because of injured legs, not old age. If Clemens manages one last run at a Cy Young, it will be another 100-victory season in the Bronx.
Worst case: Catchers Jorge Posada and Jim Leyritz allow opponents to run wild on the bases and undermine the confidence of pitchers. If that happens, maybe the Yankees only win 90.
Boston Red Sox
Manager: Jimy Williams.
1999: 94-68, wild card; beat Boston in first round, lost to Yankees in ALCS.
2000 forecast: 3rd.
Starting rotation: Pedro Martinez, Ramon Martinez, Jeff Fassero, Tim Wakefield and Brian Rose.
3-4-5 hitters: Carl Everett, Nomar Garciaparra, Troy O’Leary.
Closer: Derek Lowe.
X-factor: The Red Sox are counting on Rod Beck in a set-up role, but he may not have anything left. He’s opening the year on the disabled list.
Best case: Bret Saberhagen returns in May and remains in rotation all year, stabilizing a rotation that could get big contributions from a group of prospects, including rookie Tomokazu Ohka. The Martinezes could win 35 games between them.
Worst case: Garciaparra, who played through injuries last year, succumbs to wear and tear, taking the team down.
Toronto Blue Jays
Manager: Jim Fregosi.
1999: 84-78, 3rd.
2000 forecast: 2nd.
Starting rotation: David Wells, Chris Carpenter, Roy Halladay, Kelvim Escobar and Frank Castillo.
3-4-5 hitters: Raul Mondesi, Carlos Delgado and Brad Fullmer.
Closer: Billy Koch.
X-factor: Center-fielder Vernon Wells opens the year in Class AAA but has rookie-of-the-year talent. The Jays won’t need him if Jose Cruz Jr. puts it all together.
Best case: Baseball’s best quartet of young pitchers–Carpenter, Escobar, Halladay and Koch–carries Toronto into the playoffs for the first time since it won back-to-back World Series in ’92 and ’93. This is a pitching staff that scouts love.
Worst case: Mondesi gets off to a bad start and becomes the same kind of negative presence he was in Los Angeles. The Blue Jays will wish they had found a way to keep Shawn Green happy.
Baltimore Orioles
Manager: Mike Hargrove.
1999: 78-84, 4th.
2000 forecast: 5th.
Starting rotation: Mike Mussina, Sidney Ponson, Pat Rapp, Jose Mercedes and Calvin Maduro.
3-4-5 hitters: B.J. Surhoff, Albert Belle and Harold Baines.
Closer: Mike Timlin.
X-factor: Health is always the primary concern for a team with so many players approaching the end of their careers. Baines (41), Cal Ripken Jr. (39), Brady Anderson (36), Will Clark (36) and Surhoff (35) are all old enough to run for president.
Best case: Belle gets off to a fast start for the first time in years and delivers an MVP season, carrying the Orioles into contention for a wild card. He has averaged 37 homers and 128 RBIs the last three years despite April slumps.
Worst case: Scott Erickson is slow to recover from injury. Owner Peter Angelos will be tempted to move unsigned veterans when he finds out what Mussina can bring in a midseason deal.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Manager: Larry Rothschild.
1999: 69-93.
2000 forecast: 4th.
Starting rotation: Steve Trachsel, Ryan Rupe, Esteban Uan, Dan Wheeler and Juan Guzman.
3-4-5 hitters: Jose Canseco, Fred McGriff and Greg Vaughn.
Closer: Roberto Hernandez.
X-factor: Wilson Alvarez, who’s on the DL, and Trachsel combined to go 17-27 last year. They have the stuff to turn those numbers around.
Best case: A slugger-heavy lineup in a hitter-friendly ballpark makes Tampa Bay fans see the beauty in four-hour games. Vinny Castilla, who opens the season on the DL, and Vaughn join Canseco and McGriff to produce 140-plus home runs.
Worst case: The Devil Rays lose so many 10-9 games that they wish they had saved their money and given International League MVP Steve Cox a shot.
AL WEST
Texas Rangers
Manager: Johnny Oates.
1999: 95-67, 1st; lost in first round to Yankees.
2000 forecast: 2nd, wild card, lose in first round.
Starting rotation: Kenny Rogers, Rick Helling, Darren Oliver, Esteban Loaiza and Mark Clark.
3-4-5 hitters: Ivan Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro and Ruben Mateo.
Closer: John Wetteland.
X-factor: Detroit gave up awfully quick on former Minor League Player of the Year Gabe Kapler. He has big spikes to fill as Juan Gonzalez’s replacement.
Best case: A rookie-of-the-year performance by center-fielder Mateo and perhaps the AL’s deepest bullpen helps a rebuilt team win early as it builds confidence for the stretch run.
Worst case: Retread pitchers Rogers and Oliver fail as they return to their original organization. The Rangers long for Gonzalez and leadoff man Mark McLemore.
Oakland Athletics
Manager: Art Howe.
1999: 87-75, 2nd.
2000 forecast: 3rd.
Starting rotation: Kevin Appier, Tim Hudson, Gil Heredia, Omar Olivares and Ron Mahay or Mark Mulder.
3-4-5 hitters: Jason Giambi, John Jaha and Matt Stairs.
Closer: Jason Isringhausen.
X-factor: Isringhausen, who is only two years removed from Tommy John surgery, enters his first season with a closer’s responsibility. He looked good at the end of the ’99 season but he won’t sneak up on hitters this time around.
Best case: Third baseman Eric Chavez joins Giambi, Stairs and Ben Grieve in carrying Oakland into the playoffs. The Athletics may have the best collection of left-handed hitters in the major leagues.
Worst case: Oakland takes the almost inevitable backward step after a surprisingly successful season. If Heredia and Hudson struggle, it could turn ugly.
Seattle Mariners
Manager: Lou Piniella.
1999: 79-83, 3rd.
2000 forecast: 1st, lose in first round.
Starting rotation: Jamie Moyer, Freddy Garcia, Aaron Sele, John Halama and Gil Meche.
3-4-5 hitters: Alex Rodriguez, John Olerud and Edgar Martinez.
Closer: Kazuhiro Sasaki.
X-factor: Rodriguez is in uncharted territory without Ken Griffey Jr. at his side. The early indication is he can handle the extra responsibility, but it could wear on him.
Best case: Pat Gillick’s rebuilt pitching staff, compared with the more pitcher-friendly dimensions of Safeco Field, allow the Mariners to win the old-fashioned way–with pitching and defense.
Worst case: Newcomer Olerud can’t do enough to offset Griffey’s loss and the Mariners fall below .500 early. If this happens, Gillick will have to present Rodriguez with a take-it-or-leave-it offer and then trade him. He can’t let him walk away for only draft choices.
Anaheim Angels
Manager: Mike Scioscia.
1999: 70-92, 4th.
2000 forecast: 4th.
Starting rotation: Ken Hill, Kent Bottenfield, Jason Dickson, Ramon Ortiz and Scott Schoeneweis.
3-4-5 hitters: Mo Vaughn, Tim Salmon and Garret Anderson.
Closer: Troy Percival.
X-factor: Will the real Mo Vaughn please step forward? An Opening Night knee injury contributed to a disappointing first season in Anaheim for the former Red Sox MVP. The Angels need Vaughn to avoid injuries and long slumps.
Best case: Tim Belcher (shoulder surgery) comes off the DL in May and finishes as a double-figure winner. Hill and Mercker stay healthy, making this baseball’s most improved rotation and giving Angels an outside shot at .500.
Worst case: Scioscia, a rookie manager, lacks the political finesse to weave his way through a complicated clubhouse. The same guys who did in Terry Collins turn on him.
