President Clinton’s determination to decide by the fall whether to start deploying a national missile defense system is worse than a rush to judgment. It’s beginning to look reckless, given that tests so far suggest the antimissile technology doesn’t even work yet.
This is not all Clinton’s fault. Hawkish voices in the GOP-controlled Congress share some of the blame for pressuring the administration to go full speed ahead on missile defense. This despite Russia’s objection that the system would violate the 1972 Antiballistic Missile Treaty and the worries of European allies who warn it will trigger a new arms race.
With the next crucial Pentagon test of the system coming July 7, now would be a good time to put the brakes on this runaway train and call on calmer heads for advice. There are plenty around and they are increasingly urging caution. In fact, a bipartisan chorus of lawmakers on Capitol Hill has urged Clinton to delay the decision until the next administration has had time to assess the feasibility of antimissile technology and its impact on global arms control and stability.
If Clinton needs political cover, he can find plenty of it out there from across the political spectrum. Former secretaries of defense such as William Perry, and ex-Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, have appealed to Clinton, along with military leaders, Russian experts, scientists and members of Congress, not to go ahead with deployment but merely to further the debate on the matter for now.
On Thursday, an administration official insisted Clinton still plans to make a decision later this year based on four criteria: the threat of missile attacks by “rogue” nations such as North Korea and Iran, cost, tactical feasibility, and overall impact on national security, including arms control.
If that remains the case, it should lead Clinton naturally to defer judgment. For one thing, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright has lately stopped calling North Korea and Iran “rogue” states since the administration eased sanctions against them to reward reforms in those countries–even though the assessments of their threat have yet to change. For another, the estimated price tag of some $60 billion for 15 years of research into an antimissile system is hefty by any standard, but especially when one considers it has yet to have even one indisputably successful test.
Moreover, Clinton is pursuing development of a limited antimissile system that some scientists have questioned, suggesting it would be less effective than a so-called “boost phase” system that would seek to knock down incoming missiles in the early stage of flight, before they reached space, gained speed and released warheads and decoys.
The president still has the prerogative to listen to the evidence and postpone a decision. In this case, not to decide is to decide. That’s the right decision.
